Friday, 23 May 2008

If Crewe and Nantwich were repeated nationally ....

If the Crewe and Nantwich result were repeated nationally (which of course it won't be), the excellent Electoral Calculus site (enter yesterday's figures in the 'Make your prediction' page) suggests a Conservative majority of 228 seats in Parliament. The unlucky Labour losers would include some of the best known names in Zanu Labour:

Aberconwy CON gain from LAB : Betty Williams
Aberdeen South CON gain from LAB : Anne Begg
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine CON gain from LIB : Sir Robert Smith
Amber Valley CON gain from LAB : Judy Mallaber
Angus CON gain from NAT : Michael Weir
Arfon NAT gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Argyll and Bute CON gain from LIB : Alan Reid
Ashfield CON gain from LAB : Geoff Hoon
Barrow and Furness CON gain from LAB : John Hutton
Basildon South and East Thurrock CON gain from LAB : Angela Smith
Bassetlaw CON gain from LAB : John Mann
Bath CON gain from LIB : Don Foster
Batley and Spen CON gain from LAB : Mike Wood
Battersea CON gain from LAB : Martin Linton
Bedford CON gain from LAB : Patrick Hall
Berwick-upon-Tweed CON gain from LIB : Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk CON gain from LIB : Michael Moore
Birmingham Edgbaston CON gain from LAB : Gisela Stuart
Birmingham Hall Green CON gain from LAB : Roger Godsiff
Birmingham Northfield CON gain from LAB : Richard Burden
Birmingham Selly Oak CON gain from LAB : Stephen McCabe
Blackburn CON gain from LAB : Jack Straw
Blackpool North and Cleveleys CON gain from LAB : Joan Humble
Blackpool South CON gain from LAB : Gordon Marsden
Bolton North East CON gain from LAB : David Crausby
Bolton West CON gain from LAB : Ruth Kelly
Bradford South CON gain from LAB : Gerry Sutcliffe
Bradford West CON gain from LAB : Marsha Singh
Brecon and Radnorshire CON gain from LIB : Roger Williams
Brent North CON gain from LAB : Barry Gardiner
Brentford and Isleworth CON gain from LAB : Ann Keen
Bridgend CON gain from LAB : Madeleine Moon
Brigg and Goole CON gain from LAB : Ian Cawsey
Brighton Kemptown CON gain from LAB : Desmond Turner
Brighton Pavilion CON gain from LAB : David Lepper
Bristol East CON gain from LAB : Kerry McCarthy
Bristol North West CON gain from LAB : Doug Naysmith
Bristol West CON gain from LIB : Stephen Williams
Broxtowe CON gain from LAB : Nick Palmer
Burnley CON gain from LAB : Kitty Ussher
Burton CON gain from LAB : Janet Dean
Bury North CON gain from LAB : David Chaytor
Calder Valley CON gain from LAB : Christine McCafferty
Camborne and Redruth CON gain from LIB : Julia Goldsworthy
Cambridge CON gain from LIB : David Howarth
Cannock Chase CON gain from LAB : Tony Wright
Cardiff North CON gain from LAB : Julie Morgan
Cardiff South and Penarth CON gain from LAB : Alun Michael
Cardiff West CON gain from LAB : Kevin Brennan
Carlisle CON gain from LAB : Eric Martlew
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South CON gain from LAB : Nick Ainger
Carshalton and Wallington CON gain from LIB : Tom Brake
Ceredigion NAT gain from LIB : Mark Williams
Chatham and Aylesford CON gain from LAB : Jonathan Shaw
Cheadle CON gain from LIB : Patsy Calton
Cheltenham CON gain from LIB : Martin Horwood
Chester, City of CON gain from LAB : Christine Russell
Chippenham CON gain from LIB : Unknown (new seat)
Chorley CON gain from LAB : Lindsay Hoyle
Cleethorpes CON gain from LAB : Shona McIsaac
Clwyd South CON gain from LAB : Martyn Jones
Colchester CON gain from LIB : Bob Russell
Colne Valley CON gain from LAB : Kali Mountford
Copeland CON gain from LAB : Jamie Reed
Corby CON gain from LAB : Phil Hope
Cornwall North CON gain from LIB : Dan Rogerson
Cornwall South East CON gain from LIB : Colin Breed
Coventry North West CON gain from LAB : Geoffrey Robinson
Coventry South CON gain from LAB : Jim Cunningham
Crawley CON gain from LAB : Laura Moffatt
Crewe and Nantwich CON gain from LAB : Gwyneth Dunwoody
Croydon Central CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Dagenham and Rainham CON gain from LAB : Jon Cruddas
Dartford CON gain from LAB : Howard Stoate
Delyn CON gain from LAB : David Hanson
Derby North CON gain from LAB : Bob Laxton
Derbyshire North East CON gain from LAB : Natascha Engel
Derbyshire South CON gain from LAB : Mark Todd
Devon North CON gain from LIB : Nick Harvey
Devon West and Torridge CON gain from LIB : Unknown (changed seat)
Dewsbury CON gain from LAB : Shahid Malik
Dorset Mid and Poole North CON gain from LIB : Annette Brooke
Dorset South CON gain from LAB : Jim Knight
Dover CON gain from LAB : Gwyn Prosser
Dudley North CON gain from LAB : Ian Austin
Dudley South CON gain from LAB : Ian Pearson
Dulwich and West Norwood CON gain from LAB : Tessa Jowell
Dumfries and Galloway CON gain from LAB : Russell Brown
Dunbartonshire East CON gain from LIB : Jo Swinson
Ealing Central and Acton CON gain from LAB : Andrew Slaughter
Ealing North CON gain from LAB : Stephen Pound
Eastleigh CON gain from LIB : Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh North and Leith CON gain from LAB : Mark Lazarowicz
Edinburgh South CON gain from LAB : Nigel Griffiths
Edinburgh South West CON gain from LAB : Alistair Darling
Ellesmere Port and Neston CON gain from LAB : Andrew Miller
Elmet and Rothwell CON gain from LAB : Colin Burgon
Eltham CON gain from LAB : Clive Efford
Erewash CON gain from LAB : Liz Blackman
Exeter CON gain from LAB : Ben Bradshaw
Feltham and Heston CON gain from LAB : Alan Keen
Gedling CON gain from LAB : Vernon Coaker
Gloucester CON gain from LAB : Parmjit Dhanda
Gower CON gain from LAB : Martin Caton
Great Grimsby CON gain from LAB : Austin Mitchell
Great Yarmouth CON gain from LAB : Tony Wright
Guildford CON gain from LIB : Unknown (changed seat)
Halesowen and Rowley Regis CON gain from LAB : Sylvia Heal
Halifax CON gain from LAB : Linda Riordan
Hammersmith CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Hampstead and Kilburn CON gain from LIB : Unknown (changed seat)
Harlow CON gain from LAB : Bill Rammell
Harrogate and Knaresborough CON gain from LIB : Phil Willis
Harrow East CON gain from LAB : Tony McNulty
Harrow West CON gain from LAB : Gareth Thomas
Hastings and Rye CON gain from LAB : Michael Foster
Hazel Grove CON gain from LIB : Andrew Stunell
Hendon CON gain from LAB : Andrew Dismore
Hereford and South Herefordshire CON gain from LIB : Paul Keetch
High Peak CON gain from LAB : Tom Levitt
Holborn and St Pancras CON gain from LAB : Frank Dobson
Hove CON gain from LAB : Celia Barlow
Huddersfield CON gain from LAB : Barry Sheerman
Hyndburn CON gain from LAB : Greg Pope
Ilford South CON gain from LAB : Mike Gapes
Ipswich CON gain from LAB : Chris Mole
Keighley CON gain from LAB : Ann Cryer
Kingston and Surbiton CON gain from LIB : Edward Davey
Kingswood CON gain from LAB : Roger Berry
Lancashire West CON gain from LAB : Rosie Cooper
Lancaster and Fleetwood CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Leeds North East CON gain from LAB : Fabian Hamilton
Leeds North West CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Leicester South CON gain from LAB : Peter Soulsby
Leicestershire North West CON gain from LAB : David Taylor
Lewes CON gain from LIB : Norman Baker
Lewisham East CON gain from LAB : Bridget Prentice
Lewisham West and Penge CON gain from LAB : Jim Dowd
Leyton and Wanstead CON gain from LAB : Harry Cohen
Lincoln CON gain from LAB : Gillian Merron
Loughborough CON gain from LAB : Andy Reed
Luton North CON gain from LAB : Kelvin Hopkins
Luton South CON gain from LAB : Margaret Moran
Manchester Withington LAB gain from LIB : John Leech
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East CON gain from LAB : Ashok Kumar
Milton Keynes North CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Milton Keynes South CON gain from LAB : Phyllis Starkey
Montgomeryshire CON gain from LIB : Lembit Opik
Moray CON gain from NAT : Angus Robertson
Morecambe and Lunesdale CON gain from LAB : Geraldine Smith
Newcastle-under-Lyme CON gain from LAB : Paul Farrelly
Newport East CON gain from LAB : Jessica Morden
Newport West CON gain from LAB : Paul Flynn
Newton Abbot CON gain from LIB : Richard Younger-Ross
Norfolk North CON gain from LIB : Norman Lamb
Northampton North CON gain from LAB : Sally Keeble
Northampton South CON gain from LAB : Unknown (changed seat)
Norwich North CON gain from LAB : Ian Gibson
Norwich South CON gain from LAB : Charles Clarke
Nottingham East CON gain from LAB : John Heppell
Nottingham South CON gain from LAB : Alan Simpson
Nuneaton CON gain from LAB : Bill Olner
Ochil and South Perthshire CON gain from LAB : Gordon Banks
Oldham East and Saddleworth CON gain from LAB : Phil Woolas
Oxford East CON gain from LAB : Andrew Smith
Oxford West and Abingdon CON gain from LIB : Evan Harris
Pendle CON gain from LAB : Gordon Prentice
Perth and North Perthshire CON gain from NAT : Peter Wishart
Plymouth Moor View CON gain from LAB : Alison Seabeck
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport CON gain from LAB : Linda Gilroy
Poplar and Limehouse CON gain from LAB : Jim Fitzpatrick
Portsmouth North CON gain from LAB : Sarah McCarthy-Fry
Portsmouth South CON gain from LIB : Mike Hancock
Pudsey CON gain from LAB : Paul Truswell
Reading West CON gain from LAB : Martin Salter
Redditch CON gain from LAB : Jacqui Smith
Renfrewshire East CON gain from LAB : Jim Murphy
Ribble South CON gain from LAB : David Borrow
Richmond Park CON gain from LIB : Susan Kramer
Rochdale LAB gain from LIB : Paul Rowen
Romsey and Southampton North CON gain from LIB : Sandra Gidley
Rossendale and Darwen CON gain from LAB : Janet Anderson
Sefton Central CON gain from LAB : Claire Curtis-Thomas
Sheffield Hallam CON gain from LIB : Nick Clegg
Sherwood CON gain from LAB : Paddy Tipping
Slough CON gain from LAB : Fiona Mactaggart
Solihull CON gain from LIB : Lorely Burt
Somerset North East CON gain from LAB : Dan Norris
Somerton and Frome CON gain from LIB : David Heath
Southampton Itchen CON gain from LAB : John Denham
Southampton Test CON gain from LAB : Alan Whitehead
Southport CON gain from LIB : John Pugh
St Austell and Newquay CON gain from LIB : Unknown (new seat)
St Ives CON gain from LIB : Andrew George
Stafford CON gain from LAB : David Kidney
Stalybridge and Hyde CON gain from LAB : James Purnell
Stevenage CON gain from LAB : Barbara Follett
Stirling CON gain from LAB : Anne McGuire
Stockton South CON gain from LAB : Dari Taylor
Stourbridge CON gain from LAB : Lynda Waltho
Stroud CON gain from LAB : David Drew
Sunderland Central CON gain from LAB : Bill Etherington
Sutton and Cheam CON gain from LIB : Paul Burstow
Swindon North CON gain from LAB : Michael Wills
Swindon South CON gain from LAB : Anna Snelgrove
Tamworth CON gain from LAB : Brian Jenkins
Taunton Deane CON gain from LIB : Jeremy Browne
Telford CON gain from LAB : David Wright
Thornbury and Yate CON gain from LIB : Steve Webb
Thurrock CON gain from LAB : Andrew Mackinlay
Tooting CON gain from LAB : Sadiq Khan
Torbay CON gain from LIB : Adrian Sanders
Truro and Falmouth CON gain from LIB : Matthew Taylor
Twickenham CON gain from LIB : Vincent Cable
Tynemouth CON gain from LAB : Alan Campbell
Vale of Clwyd CON gain from LAB : Chris Ruane
Vale of Glamorgan CON gain from LAB : John Smith
Wakefield CON gain from LAB : Mary Creagh
Walsall North CON gain from LAB : David Winnick
Walsall South CON gain from LAB : Bruce George
Warrington South CON gain from LAB : Helen Southworth
Warwick and Leamington CON gain from LAB : James Plaskitt
Warwickshire North CON gain from LAB : Mike O'Brien
Watford CON gain from LAB : Claire Ward
Waveney CON gain from LAB : Bob Blizzard
Weaver Vale CON gain from LAB : Mike Hall
Westminster North CON gain from LAB : Karen Buck
Westmorland and Lonsdale CON gain from LIB : Tim Farron
Winchester CON gain from LIB : Mark Oaten
Wirral South CON gain from LAB : Ben Chapman
Wolverhampton South West CON gain from LAB : Robert Marris
Worcester CON gain from LAB : Michael Foster
Wyre Forest CON gain from MIN : Dr Richard Taylor
Yeovil CON gain from LIB : David Laws
Ynys Mon NAT gain from LAB : Albert Owen
York Outer CON gain from LIB : Unknown (changed seat)

3 comments:

Newmania said...

Lewes CON gain from LIB : Norman Baker

Me Likee.

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Anonymous said...

Today I saw something I've never seen before in my adult life.

I saw a Tory by-election victory.

It was.....beautiful.

Anonymous said...

Incidentally, expect Labour to get hammered by the SNP in Scotland. Generally expect a lot of tactical anti-Labour voting north of the border.