Mike Smithson's take on the latest ICM poll in the Guardian won't make happy reading for David Cameron. Voters continue to be against Labour rather than for the Tories, and an economic upturn that lowers their dissatisfaction with Brown will pull back Labour's votes. Paradoxically, Cameron may take some comfort from the leaked IMF predictions that the UK will be the worst hit by the recession, with recovery delayed until well into 2010. For Tory votes, Gloom is Good.
PB may well be right in the Guardian's ICM poll generally being spot-on, but this doesn't tell half the story. The poll reveals a hunger for change amongst voters, not a hunger for Cameron. Dave remains the least-worst choice for voters, not the best.
I still reckon the June polls will change thinking on the old duopoly and give us all a surprise. And if so, this may start to swing the GE vote predictions.