Monday, 26 April 2010

Electoral Calculus: My dream election

I've always preferred the Electoral Calculus calculator to the BBC's but in this case they come up with almost the same result. Imagine Cameron's support firming up and Labour's collapsing further; the following vote share is not unimaginable;

Conservatives - 36%
Labour -23%
LibDems - 30%
Others - 11%

This would leave Cameron 6 seats short of an absolute majority (EC) or 9 seats short if you prefer the BBC. Either way, close enough to form a government without a pact with the LibDems, but one constantly on a knife-edge. It's a result that would strengthen Parliament and rebalance the current tyranny of the executive. It would return power to back-bench MPs and their constituents. But as I say, a dream result ...

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