Sunday, 18 April 2010

I don't believe this LibDem surge

Clegg performs well in the leaders debate and the next morning the LibDems start to climb in the polls; by Saturday according to BPIX they lead both the Tories and Labour. I just don't believe it. Look, nine-odd million out of forty-five million voters saw the TV debate - fewer than a quarter of electors. To produce a swing of this magnitude, every single viewer must have been converted to Europe and Libdemitude overnight and persuaded their neighbours and people on the train to vote for Clegg too.

I think the reality is rather different. I think there's a bias in the poll samples; it's the same people who watch TV political debates and QT who participate in opinion polls. The other four out of five of us claim we're just about to have dinner. Or don't have a land-line. So the polls are just telling us what a sample of those nine-odd millions think, not what the other 36 million think.

On the train home from Southampton yesterday I was chatting with a young man who had his own very well developed idea of how the TV debates should have been designed. They should have started with more contestants, he said, with the losers being voted off each week until the final week was a run-off between the two finalists. And they should have used telephone voting.

And perhaps he was right. Perhaps a game-show format is as good a way of picking a Prime Minister as an election.

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I must concur, most reasonable folk are never touched by these polls and the questions are weighted or biased towards the dumb three; Libdims/Cons/Nulavs, no one else has a look in.
It suits all three main parties to portray the 'race' to be only about them, UKIP have it right.....Sod 'em all!

Mrs Rigby said...

I don't believe the polls any more, not that I did anyway, and I'm a bit sickened by the way this election is turning 'presidential' too, with the party leaders saying what they personally will do, instead of what their prospective MPs will do.

Tamianne said...

I feel very sceptical about the polls too.

There must be a lot of people now, who like me, worry about a Lib/Lab alliance and who are therefore thinking of voting Conservative. I think this debate would have increased that fear. Yet this doesn't seem to have been reflected in these polls.

Sue said...

I can't say I believe anything that comes from the government or main media anymore.

Survival on an island eating insects and foraging for food would be a better way of gauging all round capability and much more fun!

Elby the Beserk said...

If you were to listen to The Today Programme, you would believe that social networking will decide this election. The media bubble is now so reinforced that no-one within it has a clue that there is a world outside it that doesn't think like them or hold the same opinions as them. It is also a world that is to a large extent beholden to the New Labour hegemony for its own power.

Whooops.

Bill Quango MP said...

I favoured Jerry Springer.
That may have been a better format.

Bring out the protagonists, Brown and Cameron.. and set up the scene. One has been stealing money,running up the credit cards, getting into fights with other countries and breaking things, like the country.
They argue and swear at each other.

Then Springer brings out the Third Party. In his softly, softly style he says "Dave..are you aware that Gordon wants to have a secret parliament liaison with Nick?" Nick walks on in a mini skirt no wider than a cable tie and suddenly the chairs fly. All the time the bouncers are restraining Gordon and Dave and Nick, Jerry keeps his fixed secret, bemused smile fixed on his face.

He's still got Alex Salmond and Herman Van Rompuy to bring on yet.