Thursday, 6 May 2010

Predictions

OK, I'm probably going to be out by a mile, but here goes;

1. Conservatives - 36%, Lib Dems - 27.5%, Labour - 24.5%

2. Conservatives 318 seats, Labour 206 seats, Lib Dems 94 seats - Cameron 8 seats short of a majority

3. Cameron to form next government with Ulster Unionists in support

7 comments:

Curmudgeon said...

The one thing that I really hope comes true is that Labour are reduced to third in the popular vote, which hopefully will mean that Brown will turn out to be the last ever Labour Prime Minister.

Savonarola said...

Despite the Clegg surge and Brown's 'safe pair of hands' plea, Cameron will get an outright majority. Ambivalence, indicated by the polls, will favour Cameron on entry to the booth.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Not far off imho.

Not sure about the Northern Ireland angle - it'll cause a lot of trouble if he agrees to what they're asking for, but maybe it's just an opening gambit.

Curmudgeon said...

318 seats would be enough to govern as a minority government without trying to curry favour from other parties. Remember that one of the Opposition is the Speaker, and five are likely to be abstentionist Sinn Feiners, so realistically 322 gives you a majority anyway.

FWIW I reckon Con 294, Lab 240, LibDem 85, which could put us into constitutional crisis territory.

hatfield girl said...

If it is to be constitutional crisis territory Curmudgeon, the spinning on 'keeping the Queen out of politics' and 'Brown is her advisor' is ominous (and incorrect, as to both of those lines the response is 'up to a point'.)

Mrs Rigby said...

We guess it'll be about 10% difference between Labour and Tory, perhaps more if the weather turns colder and it rains.

There are historic links with the Unionists, and an alliance for the EU elections, so no surprises there.

Young Mr. Brown said...

Well, you weren't quite right about the LibDems and Labour, but you were pretty well spot on with regard to the Tories. And as a shrewd pundit, you are well ahead of Mr. Dale.