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Thursday, 30 September 2010

Harpex stumbles but stays the course

Despite gloomy Autumn predictions for an economic downturn, my favourite indicator, an excellent predictor of UK GDP behaviour, continues upwards, albeit at a slower rate. The contribution of the construction sector to our second quarter GDP recovery, a remarkable 9.5% increase in output, reflects the completion of many stalled housing developments; this catch-up is now slowing and things are settling, and this is what I think the Harpex shows. Third quarter GDP growth will be much flatter, I expect. 

 

1 comment:

Budgie said...

Watch everyone buy stuff before the VAT goes up in January. Perhaps the steeper rise was all the imported goods for the pre-rise splurge?