Wednesday, 27 April 2011

Last Quarter GDP growth guess

Back on 21st March I wrote:
The expected £8bn tax windfall the Chancellor may expect for 2010/2011 may be supplemented by a spurt of GDP growth in the last quarter of the financial year when figures are revealed in late April that may be as high as 1% - when the official forecast for GDP for the whole of calendar 2011 is just 1.8%.
I'm happy to stick with that - in fact I'll plump for 1.1% GDP growth over the last quarter. Manufacturing is booming, and construction's a game of two halves - healthy big infrastructure work, with Crossrail, the Thames Trunk sewer and Olympics works big here in London, but a depressed homebuilding sector. Our distribution-heavy supermarket sector which is passing high transport costs on through food prices, and a healthy web economy, which is hitting High Street retail but helping distribution businesses, means services are less affected than they could be. 

The experts' ratings are around half mine - 0.2% from JP Morgan, 0.5% from Citi, 0.6% from Goldman Sachs. I could, as they say, be completely wrong.    

1 comment:

DC said...

Is homebuilding really so depressed? Certainly in my local town a number of projects that had been paused have recommenced and a couple of new developments of have started.