Saturday, 10 December 2011

"26 to1; er, 22 to 1 sorry oh it's 18 now, for certain"

As far as exactly what the UK vetoed, or didn't veto, Richard North's latest post offers a clear and succinct analysis. Both he and Ambrose Evans-Pritchard are spot on, though, in their assertion that the complex reality of treaty amendment negotiations has lost out to the way in which events at the Council are being spun. The "26 to 1" meme is being repeated by news organisations throughout Europe with some glee; EU Parliament Chief Jerzy Buzek confirming source-credibility for this by announcing that there was an EU26 agreement to go ahead, but with a few countries needing to consult national Parliaments. "Twenty six versus one. That is a very good result" he said, and that's clearly the line that suits France and Germany, determined to push the UK from restraining their Euro-ambitions. 


However, as EU Observer reports, it's not quite that clear cut. There is no certainty that Ireland, Austria, the Netherlands, Romania and Denmark can be part of a new treaty without Referenda, and given the current right-wing and nationalistic mood across Europe, considerable doubt that their respective Federasts will win the vote. There are additional hurdles to Finland, Latvia and the Czech Republic signing up. Hungary says it was misunderstood. Suddenly those 26 are melting away to 18. Over the next weeks and months we will see the spectacle of the domestic Federasts in each trying to steamroll through domestic opposition, and all this whilst the Euro continues to fail.


For my money, the odds are still on a collapse of the Euro before a new treaty is signed. 


Still, the "26 to 1" meme has touched a national nerve and one can forgive a certain joie amongst those of us who delight in the Guardian's deep mourning. The Englishman's Castle sums the mood up with the 1940 Low cartoon "Very Well, Alone" and others of a military bent tot up the potential Order of Battle (what chance now a shared carrier?). But consider the real potential of the way this might shake-out;  the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland together as a low-regulation, high productivity, outer-Europe, with the  UK (as Coney Island mentioned in previous comments) as a sort of Hong Kong, linking Europe to Asia and the Americas as an even stronger and more powerful financial centre. 


It's worth playing for, isn't it?

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

There is no guarantee that those other countries will offer their people a referendum. The Irish PM is "considering" the possibility but by no means is it a done deal.

Greg Tingey said...

Today's papers are interesting.
Cameron has pointed out that even at the "26" level, use of official EU buildings and facilities for attempts (by Sarko, principallY) to stitch us up are - erm - illegal.
And we'll take OUR TURN at the EU courts to screw their attempts ( More money for the lawyers, I know, but still highly amusing)

Also, a suggestiun that one or two Froggie banks are near the edge.
If they go over, then the whole thing will need another re-organisation of deck-chars.

Fascinating stuff.

Elby the Beserk said...

Definitely worth playing for, however there is no sign whatsoever of the Coalition understanding the needs to unshackle the chains that bind and throttle SMEs in the UK. And it is these that have led us out of every previous recession. Instead, we have more and more of the Statist twaddle that the last shower came out with.

Elby the Beserk said...

Greg,

Yes - this is very funny, and if indeed, as I think it will turn to to be, nothing has been achieved by Cameron or the 18/19/20/21/22/23/24/25/26/, Cameron noting that any smaller group will have no rights whatsoever to use any EU facilities is high comedy. I guess we either have to laugh or cry, and I also guess that anything that pisses that strutting little cock Sarkozy has to be a good thing, I'm with Raddled. The Euro will keel over before this (whatever "this" is) is resolved.

Anonymous said...

"The Irish PM is "considering" the possibility but by no means is it a done deal."

My nationalist Irish friend tells me that anything that impinges on the Irish constitution requires a referendum.

Maybe post Lisbon that does not apply - who knows?

Anonymous said...

Below is the text of an email that I have sent today to Cameron, the Conservatives (no point sending to Libdems, they just wouldn't understand) and my own MP. (thanks to R for some appropriate wording)

Mr. Cameron, your decision on Europe was the right one. But now you have to take the initiative up a few gears!

Consider the real potential of the way this might shake-out; the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Austria and Finland together as a low-regulation, high productivity, outer-Europe, with the UK as a sort of "Hong Kong", linking Europe to Asia and the Americas as an even stronger and more powerful financial centre and at the same time, a world centre of trade.

Just imagine the possibilities this presents to us...
----------------------------

I wonder if this will dawn upon them?

Coney Island

andy said...

Makes me laugh when France and Germany sneer about forcing the UK out of the EU,
Dont they realise thats exactly what we want?

English Pensioner said...

The media seems to have overlooked the point that once one country has used its veto, there is no need for any others to do so. Therefore we will never know if one of these other countries might have used the veto had Britain not done so first. Thus how many were against the proposals remains unclear.

WitteringsfromWitney said...

Have had the opportunity to link twice to this R.

Many thanks.