Peter Oborne's EU exit scare piece in this morning's Telegraph is a more intelligent and nuanced version of the clumsy cudgel that appeared at the weekend as an Observer editorial. However, Peter has over-egged this particular pudding;
It seems likely, for example, that European leaders
would take a keen pleasure in punishing Britain by making it clear that an
independent Scotland might be allowed to stay as part of the EU
Not without, erm, 'punishing' Spain and France by allowing Catalun and Basque membership or Belgium by allowing an independent Flanders to join. What Peter means to say is 'It is extremely unlikely that an independent Scotland would be allowed immediate admission into the EU'. It's impossible for England, Wales and Northern Ireland to leave the EU and leave Scotland in; the whole UK must secede. And with Devo Max - the option the Scots are likely to favour (though not on the ballot paper) - they would remain inside the UK.
I am also pretty certain that British withdrawal from Europe would estrange us
from the United States, which has been so keen on British membership that
the CIA secretly funded the 1975 referendum campaign.
CIA funding to the European Movement between 1949 and 1953 is by now well documented, and although the CIA funded the Youth movement until 1959 by 1957 it had achieved its objective. By the early 1970s CIA funding had long dried up - unless Oborne has novel evidence to the contrary - to be replaced in the UK by covert funding by the FCO to the EM for a 'Yes' vote, in the same way the current government funds the fake charities. There's simply no indication that the UK as a member of a wide European trading block rather than as a member of a new Greater German Federation would cause any 'estrangement' from the US; in fact, the reverse is more probable.
Forget what the polls say. If there was a
referendum on British membership of the European Union tomorrow, the
pro-Europeans would win handsomely.
Well, probably not the case if the poll was actually tomorrow - but Peter means that both Euphile elements at the heart of the State and the whole weight of the EU's propaganda machine would be thrown in and funded by astronomical amounts of money to change people's minds - as happened in Ireland. What we should be campaigning for is a pre-referendum publicity cap - with the Commission and Council banned from contributing in any way, and the government banned by law from using our own money to fund the 'No' campaign.
There could be a
return to military dictatorship in certain European countries. Things are
getting worse, not better. In these tragic and terrible circumstances, it is
surely the job of any British prime minister to rise to the occasion with
magnanimity and generosity
The sums at stake in the Commission budget negotiations are neither here nor there in the difference they will make to the political tensions in Greece or Spain; unemployment won't be reduced, the military won't stop their sabre rattling. The only measure that will lower the risk of military dictatorship is for these nations to be allowed to float their currencies - i.e. to leave the inner circle of the EU. If Britain leads the way in heading an 'outer circle' we will do far more good for these peoples than throwing away a few more millions into the Commissions pisspot.
Apart from its manifold inaccuracies, emotional blackmailing, errors and omissions of fact and perverse logic, another good piece from Peter Oborne.