Argentina couldnt invade its own bloody capital at the moment, never mind The Falklands.
Several places have mapped out possible invasions by Argentina, at best, they take the islands with catastrophic losses.
At worst, they lose 10,000 men and dont even set foot on the islands.
The FI Garrison is over 1000 strong, all trained as static infantry, with an additional company of proper infantry.
Argentina has a single landing ship, that could land 300 men and heavy equipment. Everything else they needed would be landed by dingy.
That assumes an S/T/A class isnt hanging around (the argies have no ASW capability) and sinks the invasion fleet with all hands.
They have a parachute Brigade, but its poorly trained and as far as I'm aware hasnt dropped in Brigade strength, ever.
Even the Americans, who constantly make parachute drops take serious losses to broken ankles and legs.
And of course, even if they do manage to parachute 1,000 men onto the islands, they will be dropped light, with limited ammunition, food and heavy weapons.
Realisticaly, all being even, the aggressor needs 3:1 odds to beat a defender.
They might get 2:1.
But all things arent even, your average argentine has never fired a shot in anger, your average British Infantryman has spent 6 months in Afghanistan.
And Mt P isnt just a hill with a few conveniently scattered rocks, we've had 30 years to big trenches, fire pits, concealed machine gun positions.
But even if they overcome all that, and somehow seize the islands, what then?
Our submarine fleet can continue to strike targets at will with Tomahawk, or sink ships with whatever fish we're on today (Tiger?).
And of course, we can launch a task force.
I know I know, it doesnt have fighter cover, big whoop, it has Daring and Argentina doesnt have fighters, they have ground attack aircraft considerably older than I am.
Skyhawks against SeaViper would be a one way bet.
With the Argentine Navy confined to port by Astute, theres nothing to resist a landing fleet.
Ocean can operate Apaches, at a pinch, probably 16 of them.
Illustrious can helicopter in an 800 strong ground force.
The Two Albions can land another 800 men and large amounts of material, and finaly the bay classes can land another 1000 men and, 90 odd tanks.
Argentina can hold the islands with whatever it can logisticaly support with a few battered old C130s, they cant ship supplies over, due to Astute related sinkings.
Saturday, 5 January 2013
Falklands - facts
Around eighteen months ago when the Argies last set their sabres a-rattle over the Falklands, a retired general declared we couldn't defend them and couldn't win them back, prompting a related post from me. The detailed rebuttal in the comments by The Raging Tory is one of the delights of blogging and I make no apology for reproducing it in full below:-