Wednesday, 31 July 2013

UKIP poll share holding

The latest Comres poll for the Indie gives:-
Labour - 37% (+1%)
Conservative - 34% (+4%)
UKIP - 12% (-2%)
Libdem - 10% (-)
Other - 8% (-1%)
With UKIP still pushing the LibDems out of third place, and the combined Conservative / UKIP vote share pushing Labour into irrelevance, the figures show strong and enduring support for the centre-right. Without an electoral pact between the parties this will not result in a government; we'll still get Miliband's Labour.

With Farage the party's one-trick pony petulantly opposed to potato-head rich boy Dave in a seemingly irreconcilable dispute, and barring the possibility of a fatal Boden shorts accident in Portugal, it's far from clear how people will mark their papers in papers in 2015. 

However, so long as UKIP keep hold of that third place, there will be sleepless nights on the Treasury benches.  


Weekend Yachtsman said...

There will be no electoral pact between the Cameroon and UKIP; Europhile tories hate UKIP with a passion, and Farage knows that the least whiff of compromise will see his support evaporate completely - consisting, as it does, of disaffected former tory supporters who hate the EU.

So barring upsets, yes we will get Milliband's Labour.

So what? The big two-and-a-half are quite indistinguishable in practice: whatever their rhetoric, in practice all of them are in favour of the big state (the bigger the better), higher taxes, more regulations, endless PC, more Europe, and more windmills. It really doesn't matter.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Weekend Yachtsman...

What's the point in voting Tory to get Labour Lite?

You vote Tory to get a degree of economic competence - instead we get Osborne crowing about 0.6% quarterly growth at the same-time the annual deficit is 7%+...

Anonymous said...

They don't have third place.
12% does not translate into 78 seats.
It may well translate into the support of 12% of the electorate, but no seats

G. Tingey said...

There are a lot of "Old Labour" voters who loathe the EU, actually, who might easily vote UKIP, if they thought it stood a chance.
It looks (shock, horror) as if, back in 1973/5 I was wrong & Anthony Wedgwood Benn was right – the EU is a corporate conglomerates’ wet dream – a corrupt lobbyists “market” several times the size of the USSA.

Edward Spalton said...


According to the poll done by Lord Ashcroft after UKIP's second place in the recent by-election, a good proportion of UKIP votes came from Labour.

I think the postal ballot favours the existing parties because people vote quickly before the party campaigns have had their effect.

Lord Stoddart of Swindon now sits as independent Labour but is very much of the Old Labour (Ernie Bevin/Clement Attlee) sort of school. He has been consistent throughout and resigned from the government over direct elections to the European Parliament. So they sent him to the Lords where he regularly pins down ministers on EU matters with well-aimed questions.

He was chairman of CIB (Campaign for an Independent Britain) for many years - a cross party group which includes LESC (Labour Euro Safeguards Campaign). LESC's secretary, John Mills, is the highly successful businessman who recently gave £1.75 million to the Labour Party. He is organising "Labour for a Referendum" and was national agent for the poorly funded "No" side in 1975.

So I think there is still plenty of anti EU sentiment in the Labour party but the MPs are very much more disciplined at toeing the party line than the Tories.

I am just reading HG Wells's "The Open Conspiracy" for the first time and much about the EU chimes exactly with his ideas about world government.

right_writes said...

I wonder whether your "one trick pony" epithet was sarcasm or your honest opinion Raedwald...?

In either case, it is in appropriate and completely wrong.

The idea that the UKIP is anti-EU is something that is spread about by those that fear it... The BBC, the CONservative party... Others like Scottish "nationalists" (ahem)... And quite a large swathe of the Labour party try to insinuate that it is racist.

Of course the reality is that it is just what it says on the tin...

Interested in the UK as an Independent nation state.

This is neither left nor right, and it certainly isn't anti-EU or racist.