Monday, 23 September 2013

Brit Bubble + Jerry Jumble = Watch Out

The Mystreet property price index (yes, literally the 40 homes in my street) has been predictably active lately. From a 2007 mean index base of 100 asking prices dropped to 94 with the crash. By last year,2012, they were back at 100 and earlier this year one was sold at 104, marking a modest and realistic return of the market. This week, another's just sold at 115.5 - 15.5% above the 2007 bubble high, marking a new price-point for us all. This is now solid Foxtons territory. And it's a bubble. The couple of houses that have gone as upscale buy-to-lets since 2007 are now struggling to find tenants and it's only the anticipated effect of Osborne's mortgage subsidy and agents talking the market up that has acted like Viagra on price. I bought in 1995, at the bottom of the market. I think it's now time to sell before the bubble bursts.   

And Ambrose sets out in the Telegraph (£) the problems ahead for Germany; AfD didn't make it past the magic 5% in the end, but if Mutti is forced into coalition with the centre-left then Germany is set to become a lot more French - minimum wage, social subsidies and pension spend, all of which will damage her economic engine at a time when its already in danger of flagging. 

Which gives me my exit strategy; sell the house before the bubble bursts, then wait until the FX rate reaches €1.25 and bugger-off to an acre and five bedrooms somewhere more pleasant. 

5 comments:

Puzzled said...

Euros, Raedewald, euros? You`re putting yourself right in the firing line with the US$, and the Chinese ren/yuan.

Have you heard of the Sing$, the HK$, the Oz$, the Can$, or the Nor Kr to name but a few of the seemingly more stable currencies, or even a punt on precious metals?

Anonymous said...

We still haven't cured the age-old British (well English actually) problem of supply and demand. Unless and until we build more houses, then demand outstrips supply and prices rise. Of course every government will tell you that they are going to "concrete over the south east" but that ain't gonna happen is it; too many protests and NIMBYs. Also, which builder would trash & crash his own market by building 300,000 homes in any given area?

Then we have the paralysed Macaroon who stated that he was gonna get tough on immigration; but he's holding the door open almost as wide as the Blair/Brown doormen. So, with an extra 2,000,000 Romanians and Bulgarians piling into Britain next year, the housing shortage is about to get a whole lot shorter - innit!

Coney Island

Elby the Beserk said...

Well Radders old chap, we've got a four bedroom house, with large garden and a front garden in a gorgeous village near Frome for under 1/4 of a million. Somerset still has seriously underpriced areas, compared not only with the Home Counties, but also the surrounding counties of Wiltshire, Devon and Dorset. Lovely old pub down the road, lovely old church, lovely old manor house...

Nick Drew said...

Elby is spot-on !

he's shown me

Anonymous said...

@Elby

Are there a fair few oldies thereabouts?

I'm in the mobility industry and am looking to relocate from the SE.

Paul