Friday, 17 January 2014

YouGov puts UKIP in 2nd place for Euros

As analysed over at Political Betting, the 'certain to vote' poll shares for the Euros are astonishing:-

Labour - 32%
UKIP - 30%
Conservative - 21%
LibDem - 6%

Whilst this may take the wind out of the sails of Farage's critics, I have a feeling that his teflon coating will last just as long as May's election; that whatever Farage / UKIP does between now and May will not dent the desire of the British public to deliver a painful kicking to the political establishment. What happens in 2015 is up for grabs. Current polls show voters returning to the old three, but it's all to play for. If this May brings some big-name Tory defections to UKIP and enough Lords to make up a cricket side, and if Farage loosens his grip on the party, then 2015 is within reach.  

Interesting times.   

17 comments:

right_writes said...

Morning Raedwald...

It is interesting that you perceive Farage to be a burden for UKIP...

As a member (on and off) throughout, I would suggest that the very reason for UKIP's recent popularity is Nigel. He is becoming very adept at politics, for a metals trader.

He has done things that I would not support, he is ruthless with party members that either intentionally or accidentally veer off piste. Not very libertarian...

But here's the thing, we have been pushing the libertarian thing now for most of the time that UKIP has existed, and it is clearly like an exercise in "herding cats"...

Someone had to exert a modicum of control, otherwise there was no prospect of ever putting up a realistic fight against the LibLabCON.

Since he has re-inhabited the leadership, UKIP has been setting the agenda for the our state party, and its media extensions.

cuffleyburgers said...

The problem with Farage, is that he is not articulating a coherent, viable and attracitve exit policy.

I was a member for a year of UKIP but I got fed up with the magazine which read like it had been written by 11 year-olds.

The case for leaving the EU is crystal clear and the method also, but it has been Richard North who is doing the heavy lifting on the kremlinology of Brussels.

Farage is a brilliant speaker and front man, but until they start taking on the establishment with a properly thought-through intellctual argument progress will be in fits and starts.

The fact is the position of the big three is so riddled with inconsistency, hypocrisy, lies corruption and outright betrayal that UKIP have an open goal if only they would belt the ball towards it.

That is my problem with Farage; he could and should be doing so much more, and his personality risks splintering the cause.

right_writes said...

The problem with your point about North cuffeyburgers, is that the voter does not respond to the sort of correct but really dull pronouncements he makes.

They might well be correct and born out of some of the most thorough and original research (North is unparalleled at this), but if you asked any of the politicians that currently inhabit the heights in UK politics to regurgitate his stuff, they would soon be dust.

Farage realised this about 15 years ago and North "left the party".

There is a significant difference between campaigning and serving.

Farage is a serious and honest bloke, and there is an act that he can switch on and deliver to a very high standard, and that is rarer than rocking horse "do do".

Farage is the key to the door for UKIP, I know that there is far more going on under the surface of both him and the party.

cuffleyburgers said...

I am not suggesting for a second that North should be leader of UKIP, I am merely pointing out that Farage doesn't make any real effort to articulate a clearer and more realistic vision for how the separation is to take place, something which he is in a unique position to do being an articulate high profile and (I agree with you on this) seemingly honest and likeable.

By not doing this, effectively not making full use of the research that others are doing he is doing himself and us a disservice.

Anonymous said...

UKIP, is becoming a problem but not just for Dave and the yellow fever, look at recent Miliband rhetoric, that communist bastard is deeply worried about his bleeding vote, bleeding to UKIP.

For the upcoming GE in 2015 the postal vote needs to be binned and thus, Miliband would lose many hundreds of thousands of proxy votes.

That would make it interesting.

Bill Quango MP said...

Agree about the frontman.
A charismatic leader is necessary to even get any airtime. That's why when Boris speaks, sometimes his views are repeated.

Nigel's job is to be Nigel. Gets him on the telly.

Anonymous said...

The devil is NOT in the detail - until the occasion warrants it. This early in the election game all you need are 'big headlines' and media attention (good preferably, bad if that's all there is).
If a live debate ever gets the go-ahead you can guarantee even Farage will be on the ball with the relevant facts and figures.
Most elections are decided on the majority voters who have no inclination to hear the details - all they want are the benefits promised by the party that they vote in.
Here we have UKIP singing from the populist hymn sheet on immigration and the EU but countered by their promises to curb benefit/welfare handouts.
Out of the whole voting public I doubt you'll find 1% who know or understand what Article 51 means and the rest of them have already made their mind up which way they are going to vote based on the populist subjects alone.
By aiming at the 'basics' of the issues UKIP can garner the mass they require. When the time comes I'm sure they'll ensure they have the details necessary to prove they are a competent alternative.

Carnwennan said...

"The problem with Farage, is that he is not articulating a coherent, viable and attractive exit policy."

They key to the success of Alex Salmond is that he realised he didn't need a coherent or viable exit policy.

Raedwald said...

right-writes;

Nigel a burden to UKIP? Noo - he's the party's greatest asset - and the type of City bloke with whom I've often happily spent a four-hour lunch with dozen bottles. He's got tremendous charisma and more importantly the common touch. And humour - which is vital.

My points are (1) he can get away with anything right now - salacious affairs, drug use, being caught 'cottaging' in the Parliament building, fraud or stealing knickers from M&S - not that I'm suggesting for a moment he's actually done any of the above - and not lose votes. This won't last. (2) He can just about hold his party together on an autocratic and personal basis until May - but success, more MEPs, more members and more potential candidates after that will make it impossible for this to continue until 2015.

I think he needs a first class Chief of Staff, a people-manager, more than he needs policy wonks right now.

haddock said...

I've just chucked in my membership, I cringe when UKIP 'leadership' bang on about it being a democratic party that has no truck with political correctness...it isn't, and it has.

the correct response to a picture of a lad raising his left arm appearing in the press is not a grovelling apology but a prompt retort of " Oh do **** off, and stop being silly"

It is tiresome, when being asked about policy, to have to say that we will have to wait and see what Nigel says next.

Farage intends to 'modernise' UKIP; the cons modernised, how's it going for them ?


Carnwennan said...

Farage is trawling for votes amongst his new teeming constituency - disgruntled Mirror readers who will abandon Primrose Hill Labour in a heartbeat if they are offered a viable non-Tory, non yoghurt knitting alternative.

One day Richard North will come to understand it is about votes not policy. If you are precious about an honest policy construction process you will always lose to Labour who bag the votes then do whatever they think they can get away with.

Dr North wants to take a scalpel to a gun fight. Mr Farage is happy with his blunderbuss.

Anonymous said...

The thing is that there should be room for all talents.

The question to ask is "Do you want a party that gets voted in and continues in electoral popularity"

If you don't have the detail and policies then people will make their protest by voting for UKIP and once they've finished gonad kicking they'll shake hands with the victim and vote for them as before.

For us to get out of this shysters' coven we have to have a consistent message, strategy, and policies to match.

Nobody has explained to me how the socialist refugees from the BNP, who want our utilities taken back into national control, will reconcile themselves with a free market Farage who believes that they should stay private.

Autonomous Mind said...

Sorry to see so much nonsense written here about Farage and North.

Recent polls have shown that while people want to dish out a kicking to the main parties, using UKIP as a boot, voters increasingly turn away from Farage the more they see of him.

Ipsos MORI found that from a peak net satisfaction rating of +11% in May, Farage has dropped to -13% in November, with 46% saying he is "more style than substance". Only 16% believe Farage is "good in a crisis" and only 19% think he has "sound judgement".

So while those who are firmly in the UKIP camp seem content, the swing voters UKIP needs to woo are not taking the Farage in the way you seem to think. The lack of substance, something North has worked to tackle for EUsceptics, is Farage's big problem, not his strength. UKIP's nationwide polling has dropped back since last May's local elections to around 13%. That's not a breakthrough or a vindication of Farage.

Anyway, time will tell. Lets see what happens once the meaningless - and therefore protest vote centric - Euro elections are out of the way and focus turns to the general election. As more scrutiny of UKIP takes place I think we'll see the percentages from the Euros drop back and the likelihood of a Westminster seat probably fall away.

Budgie said...

Unfortunately Dr North and his followers have a code. When they say "Farage lacks substance so he will not be taken seriously", what they really mean is to hustle UKIP into accepting their view that Article 50 is the only exit route.

Not only is this view in itself false, but it is the sort of obsessive behaviour that is anathema to the majority of voters who prefer to assess principles rather than details.

Moreover most voters will be far more worried about the "loss of jobs when we leave Europe" (irrespective of the method of leaving the EU), as peddled by the LibDems and other europhiles.

Autonomous Mind said...

There is no 'code' and North does not have 'followers'. Many people respect his research and knowledge and share his disdain of Farage. Because people are aligned with North's view that doesn't make them all followers.

As for Article 50, if that view is false, Budgie, why has Farage declared it to be the only proper course of action? Are you declaring Farage to be wrong?

Anyone who claims Article 50 is not the right way to exit the EU clearly has no grasp on reality and knows nothing about what it will take to leave this insipid bloc without damaging our ability to trade.

G. Tingey said...

Err ...
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukip-councillor-blames-floods-on-gay-marriage-9069245.html

Oh dearie, dearie me - where do these idiots come from?
And will they please go back there?
This is how to lose votes in half an easy lessson

Budgie said...

AM said: "Are you declaring Farage to be wrong?" Picture the cartoon: The Man Who Declared Farage To Be Wrong, followed by extensive lemon-sucking. Get a grip AM, I will declare anybody wrong that I think is wrong. It is also bad faith to claim you are not a follower of North on the issue of Article 50 - your refer to him and cite him a great deal on this subject.

AM said: "As for Article 50, if that view is false ...". Actually what is false is the view "... that Article 50 is the only exit route." (My italics since you seem to have missed the word). Article 50 isn't the only exit route. Otherwise you wouldn't expend such emotional energy denigrating the UK parliamentary route.