Tuesday, 22 July 2014

Ukraine - unintended consequences

As the smoke starts to clear around the downing of MH17, the fall-out could have effects unwanted and unforeseen by the key political actors. It now seems likely that the aircraft was shot down by drunken, undisciplined separatists using a missile provided by Russian intelligence. It also seems likely - as Richard North explains in detail, and as we suggested on Saturday 19th - that not only the US but the Ukrainian authorities knew beforehand that the separatists had long-range Doppler-shift SAMs. It also seems likely that the intelligence services of nations inside the 'magic circle' warned their national civil aviation authorities of the threat, who in turn warned national carriers. BA, Easyjet, Qantas and several other 'old commonwealth' carriers had already diverted.

Why Ukraine, or the US, did not explicitly issue warnings via ICAO or IATA is subject to speculation. The US would have wanted to protect the extent of its intelligence, Ukraine would have wanted to preserve the desperately needed millions from overflight fees. Both maintained the public fiction that the only threat was from MANPADS, ineffective at higher altitudes. It's even possible that there may have been those in Ukraine who considered such an event as MH17 as politically advantageous, or that the US found the commercial air corridor a useful cover for its own intelligence-gathering overflights. This will all come out in the wash over the next ten years or so.  

It's the reactions to the incident that may cause changes unwelcome to the key actors;
  • Russia will quietly disown the separatist militias and weapons and munitions supply will end. Their behaviour and lack of disciplined control around the crash site has condemned them.
  • Sanctions will hit Eurozone industry hard, as Der Spiegel reports. Asia and Australasia will benefit. 
  • Eurozone banks, already weak as eggshells, may fall - many are massively exposed to Russian loans, which may default and cause crashes, making Hypo Alpine Adria look like an overdraft breach.
  • Western governments need to leave a door open for Putin - and this is likely to be pressure for a settlement involving limited autonomy for parts of Eastern Ukraine and the protection of the Russian language there. Cameron included the option in his speech, as Angus Roxburgh reports in the Guardian
  • Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the chap who looks like a Jewish paedophile, acting as Ukraine PM, who is bitterly opposed to preserving Russian identity and together with his negative TV image is likely to be the replaceable element, dumped by the Oligarchs.
  • With Autumn on the way, Putin will cut-off the gas to Ukraine to secure concessions for the Russian minority, and the EU will decline to make up the difference.
There are still more developments to come - with the MSM again lagging behind the informal sector in putting it all together.

8 comments:

DeeDee99 said...

The EU (and I include Cameron in that description) will treat the downing of this aircraft as a "beneficial crisis."

A mini "Cold War" with Russia is just what they need to demonstrate that what we need is "more EU" including, of course an EU Army.

They will milk this for all its worth.

Sackerson said...

http://theylaughedatnoah.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/ukraine-raedwalds-take.html

James Higham said...

It's all to do with sources. The SAMs story - from whom did it come?

Yet at that press conference:

http://player.rutv.ru/iframe/video/id/822433/acc_video_id/610598/isPlay/false/time_play/1/

... you can quite clearly see, in the radar footage, the presence of another plane close to MH-17. Now that could be one of two - Ukrainian or Russian.

If it is Russian, then where is the outcry? It's not because it is diverted with this new SAMs story.

Or it's Ukrainian - it's staring everyone in the face and no one wants to touch it.

G. Tingey said...

"Staring everyone in the face"
Like the reflection-images which "Prove" that 11/9/2001 was a US inside job, you mean?

Anonymous said...

PUTIN: RUSSIA WON'T `TIGHTEN THE SCREWS' IN RESPONSE TO THREATS
PUTIN SEES `DEFIANT' NATO BUILDUP IN EASTERN EUROPE
PUTIN WANTS `ADEQUATE, PROPORTIONATE' RESPONSE TO BORDER THREAT
PUTIN: RUSSIA TO BOOST DEFENSE CAPABILITY AFTER NATO BUILDUP
PUTIN: SAYS SEES INCREASE IN USE OF LANGUAGE OF "ULTIMATUMS AND SANCTIONS" TOWARD RUSSIA, CALLS FOR MORE DIALOGUE
PUTIN SEES EFFORTS TO WEAKEN, DESTABILIZE RUSSIA
PUTIN SAYS GOVT IN KIEV TOOK POWER USING UNCONSTITUTIONAL MEANS
PUTIN URGES UKRAINE GOVT TO AGREE TO TRUCE, `HOWEVER BRIEF'
PUTIN: RUSSIA CREATING ANEW MILITARY INFRASTRUCTURE IN CRIMEA
PUTIN: U.S. MISSILE DEFENSE OFFENSIVE SYSTEM TARGETING RUSSIA
PUTIN: RUSSIA NEEDS FURTHER SAFEGUARDS TO DEFEND ECONOMY
PUTIN: RUSSIA TO USE CRIMEA AS IT BOOSTS DEFENSE CAPABILITY

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-22/putin-speaks-will-respond-adequately-ongoing-nato-buildup-wont-tighten-screws-respon

Oh, I think it might just get a bit "hotter" than that.

c777

Anonymous said...

"Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the chap who looks like a Jewish paedophile,"

No. No. Just. ... No. That comment is far beyond the pale.

Bookmark to raedwald deleted.

Anonymous said...

Of course the real news isn't in Ukraine at all, it's further south, in Iraq where a genocide is taking place.

An analysis can be had at Archbishop Cranmer's blog. His Grace explains the situation using Channel 4's Jon Snow as an example of how the media takes the piss on a daily basis.

Steve

Steve

Cascadian said...

Ashton's ridiculous exploits are not going to end happily for Europe.

Already there are reports of Russian oligarchs removing their money from UK-and that is a lot of money, and could concievably tip your economy into recession again-well done camoron.

As mentioned there are any number of weak banks in Europe teetering on the edge-get ready for tighter monetary controls, if you are really unlucky a couple will fail and you may lose your deposits a la Cyprus, or perhaps the government will spring a few trillion more of your money with a little bit of "support".

And get mum to knit some wooly socks, you have a cold winter ahead with the potential of restricted gas supplies-you are after all, all-in-this-together.

For what its worth my bet is that Ukraine or USA had a spy plane running in the Malaysian Airlines radar "shadow"