Friday, 29 August 2014

Carswell - A bit of a mess

Oh dear Oh dear. Where to start. Mr Carswell.

1. He's undoubtedly right in believing that Cameron will flunk any reform negotiations - Dave has all the negotiating ability of a collapsed soufflĂ© and about as much real commitment to fundamental reform as a nun writing a condom ad. Many Tories are exhibiting the triumph of hope over experience on this, convincing themselves that Dave will somehow behave completely differently to the way he has for the last ten years. There's no hope I'm afraid - he will flunk it, and be wholly humiliated, and will then flunk the Brexit referendum, leaving the UK as weak losers. 

2. A minor but nonetheless niggling point - he's stolen Nigel's thunder as the first elected UKIP MP (or will do if he succeeds in the by election). While the gain to UKIP outweighs the stolen prize, it's a bit caddish.  

3. Carswell is an unlikely hero. Committed to the privileges of the political class, he led moves to make the home addresses of MPs secret on election applications. Neither was his Localism book (with Dan Hannan) entirely original, owing much to both Simon Jenkins and Helena Kennedy, sometimes without attribution. If I met him in the pub, I wouldn't like him. 

4. However, at least few care personally what happens to him. His move is useful in gaining UKIP air-time and in forcing Tory MPs to realise that Cameron's emollient charms are unsuited to the job in hand. It also brings back into discussion a Tory - UKIP election pact for 2015; if a worried party forces Cameron into this, Carswell's actions will be justified.   

21 comments:

DeeDee99 said...

No high-profile defector is going to be perfect: they will all have hinterlands because they ARE high profile.

If Carswell pips Nigel to become the first elected MP, that is just one of the benefits of incumbency. What it will do is give us a bridgehead by proving that UKIP can win a by-election if enough people vote for them.

His defection is a positive. Not least because he confirmed what we in UKIP already knew - Cameron has no intention of trying to get fundamental reform of the EU and no intention of allowing us to leave.

DeeDee99 said...

No high-profile defector is going to be perfect: they will all have hinterlands because they ARE high profile.

If Carswell pips Nigel to become the first elected MP, that is just one of the benefits of incumbency. What it will do is give us a bridgehead by proving that UKIP can win a by-election if enough people vote for them.

His defection is a positive. Not least because he confirmed what we in UKIP already knew - Cameron has no intention of trying to get fundamental reform of the EU and no intention of allowing us to leave.

Bloke In Italy said...

Hi Radders.

The tories are rightly petrified that UKIP will lost them the election.

The Carswell business can only reinforce that.

If we are lucky this will force Cameron to the right to try to avoid losing to Miliband, which would be an epochal disaster for the country.

Hope is not a plan, but at this stage it's all we've got.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

No.

Any UKIP/Tory election pact - or even talk of one - will be disastrous for UKIP.

Their great (possibly their only) selling point is that they are not just like all the others. They stand apart from the political class, and dare to say things that don't conform to the Westminster/Guardian/bbc blob's consensus.

As soon as they succumb to the deathly embrace of the party system, it's curtains for them.

Of course, for the Tories this would be a very good thing.

Anonymous said...

"tory - UK pact'

UK has to have some MPs first. One won't cut it.

Anonymous said...

Have to agree with Weekend Yachtsman, not being one of the LibLabCon is second only to independence from the EU as a descriptor for UKIP.

Steve

Sebastian Weetabix said...

If someone can show me how Cameron/Osborne are different from Labour, I'd love to hear it. The Quangos remain (still stuffed with Common Purpose Marxists), the armed forces have been dismantled, we remain in the iron grip of Brussels, the government has increased taxes 299 times on their watch, and the government spends more money this month than last month, more this year than last year and the deficit remains ginormous. (A minor reduction in the rate of increase not being a cut, despite all propaganda to the contrary.)

So why should I give a tuppeny toss if Labour get back in? Might as well vote UKIP since a vote for Cameron is simoly Ted Heath by other means.

Woodsy42 said...

I don't see a mess at all. Something of this sort had to happen if there is to be change. Carswell now is a very good combination of factors to make it work, for politics and probably for him personally.
Full marks to Carswell for standing down and allowing Clacton to vote on his actions.
I wish I still lived there and could vote for him.

Kemi said...

I'm surprised. I thought Carswell and Hannan would be right up your street.
I'm a fan of Hannan, but not Carswell.

I read The Plan and notwithstanding some good ideas, I could tell straight away that these are men who do ideas but not details or execution. Like many MPs they clearly haven't implemented projects before and are permanently surprised by unintended consequences.

Police and Crime Commissioners being a perfect exampes. Far from being totally ignored on the backbenches, PCCs are one of Carswell's ideas that actually got implemented. And what do we have now?

A Labour PCC in South Yorkshire who presided over the Rotherham scandal and who refused to resign from the post.
Another Labour one in Bedfordshire just suspended and likely to be facing criminal charges

Don't even get me started on the lady in Kent and the by-election last week in the West Midlands? Turn out of 10%.
An utter flop which the government will carry the blame for and which Carswell will not admit to having pushed.

The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

FrankS said...

I wonder how many UKIP parliamentary candidates have mixed feelings over a Carswell win. Will the loyal party members be shoved aside by the tide of defecting tories seeking re-election in their own seats?
No wonder the deposed UKIP candidate in Clacton sounds a bit miffed.

Mike Spilligan said...

If the suggestion is that Carswell has "upstaged" Farage, I don't see it like that at all - and I'm certain that Farage doesn't either as he wasn't backing Carswell with the politicians' usual faint praise.
IMO this had to happen, even if it wasn't Carswell (tho' he was the most likely) but we won't know how it will play out for quite a while yet, which is why I think that talk of more defectors is a bit premature.
I've got reservations about Carswell; in addition to those mentioned already he was one of a very few Tories (<5?) who voted for Bercow as Speaker. Judgement??
As for Hannan, he's just a snake in the grass who cannot be trusted; a fifth-columnist if he ever joined we happy band of 'kippers. Just say "no" to any application.

Raedwald said...

Kemi

I always opposed the 'crime Commissioner' nonsense - it was a meaningless gimmick. What I've always advocated is a return to the old Watch Committees that served us well from 1835 to 1964, when the disastrous Police Act centralised power in the Home Secretary. Free of central control, free from Party Politics, immune to patronage, locally accountable and TRULY responsible for policing. But those idiots thought they knew better ...

I'm a Localist - Carswell at heart is a centralist and wants to enjoy all the privileges of a member of the elite political class. I can't see him agreeing to limiting MPs to one term ...

Visc said...

SW: So why should I give a tuppeny toss if Labour get back in? Might as well vote UKIP since a vote for Cameron is simply Ted Heath by other means.

I am so glad you didnt say by the back door ...

Raedwald said...

Barf!

G. Tingey said...

As opposed to "Marxist Common Purpose" representatives, on past form, Sebastian Weetabix would prefer Fascist Catholic ones?

Euuuuwww....

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Euuuuuw indeed, you vile troll.

Budgie said...

It is hardly as though Carswell has done a complete about face - he has merely moved sideways to UKIP. He has been honourable enough to cause a by election rather than just jump ship and keep hold of his seat. Good for him.

The path of converts to UKIP is seldom smooth, and after a honeymoon period, newcomers tend to fall out with Farage and then disappear. However Carswell is straight enough to be a thorn in the side of the BBC/CommonPurpose/PoliticallyCorrect establishment, so I for one will cheer him on.

Anonymous said...

" If I met him in the pub, I wouldn't like him " . Where is YOUR attribution ? Didn't Churchill say that about Hitler ?

cosmic said...

UKIP have been courting defectors from the ranks of Conservative MPs for a time. It really had to happen on the party's path to achieving electoral success in Westminster.

Any of these defections are bound to be high profile and the defectors are bound to come with baggage of one sort or another, if only because the position of Tory eurosceptics is so compromised, and they've almost all expressed the need to rally round the flag.

It's just bound to be a messy business in the way that Tory defections to Nu Labour weren't.

It's reasonable to have reservations about Carswell and he does seem a bit mercurial in some of the things he's said, but all in all it looks like a considerable advantage to UKIP.

G. Tingey said...

SW
I know you are an RC groveller, but even you aren't that stupid.
I want neither "Marxist Common Purpose" nor Fascist Catholic loonies loose, thank you very much.

On subject, if Carswell wins his by-election, how many Labour MP's will jump ship to UKIP?
Because I suspect some will, as well as tories.
Could be fun!

Ian E said...

Weekend Yachtsman said...
'... As soon as they succumb to the deathly embrace of the party system, it's curtains for them.'

Maybe - but they have already succumbed to the embrace of the EU system/gravy train. I shall vote for them, but my nose will be firmly pinched - and, if I ever got to sup with Nigel, I would use a very long spoon!