Tuesday, 16 September 2014


Well, don't say I didn't tell you; I wrote in a response yesterday that
Scotland's early membership of the EU? Sorry, it just ain't going to happen. The accession of a new member requires the UNANIMOUS consent of all 28 members - and Spain will never, never consent because the precedent will be set for Catalunya. Even without Spain, the UK could block it unless Scotland takes its full share of the national debt plus say a 20 year lease of Faslane ... but as I say, it just ain't going to happen.
The Telegraph reports in detail an interview with Inigo Mendez de Vigo, Spain's European Affairs Minister, in which he makes the issue clear;
"It is crystal clear that any partner member-state that leaves the member state is out of the European Union. If they want to apply again, they would have to follow the procedure of article 49 of the treaties." He continued there were “more ifs than a poem by Kipling” about whether and on what terms Scotland would gain entry, emphasising this must be unanimously agreed by the member states and “it is a process that takes more or less five years"
It was also clear that Scotland would lose all of the UK's opt-outs and would have to use the Euro. 

I'm afraid 'yes' voters who believe that anything different will happen are just deluding themselves. 


Demetrius said...

Try Kipling's "The Rupaiyat of Omar Kal'vin" on tax, spending and the rupee. It is about Auckland Colvin (Wiki) Treasurer of India and son of John Russell Colvin (Wiki). All very Empire and very Scottish.

Anonymous said...

Even if the Scots vote 'yes' my guess is that we'll still end up with a Labour Government here in the r-UK such is the effect of the rotten borough system that we seem to be saddled with. Therefore no EU Referendum. We may as well use whatever leverage the ongoing EU membership affords us to mitigate the disaster of separation. However I doubt that Milliband & Co will have the wit or guts to wield it - spineless wankers that they are. Not that we would be much better off with the Tories looking at their performance in relation to the commissioning of the Referendum in the first place - allowing the disenfranchisement of non resident Scots FFS! As far as I can see the whole thing is a heads we all lose tails we all lose on whichever side of the border you live.

G. Tingey said...

From that article:
The Spanish Prime Minister has also said Scotland would start life outside the EU, ....
Which means an English Land-Border with a truly foreign, non-EU country.
Barbed wire, frontier posts, exchange controls, passport scrutinisation, the works.
Hope this shocks a couple of percent of voters to join the "NO" camp ...
Meanwhile, I note that an SNP spokesman uttered a few more platitudinous lies....

Wildgoose said...

Well that's one EU Minister, so if there is still a veto rather than Qualified Majority Voting then you may be correct.

Personally though, I prefer not to trust EU Officials - there's always a stitch-up.

TrT said...

The idea that the would EU risk war to gobble up Ukraine, and then expel Scotland, seems laughable.

Article 50 insists on a 2 year cooling off period before EU membership can be broken.

We are all officially EU citizens, will the Scots be stripped of that against their will?

Above all else, the EU favours the status quo, which it mistakes for stability.
Today, the Status Quo is the UK, and that is what the EU supports.
Come Saturday, the Status Quo may be the United Kingdom, or it may be the United Kingdoms of Windsor and The Free Kingdom of Scotland, and the EU will support that.

Anonymous said...

So by voting "Yes" the Scots get the big prize we are after south of the border - An exit/escape from clutches of the EU?

Seth the pig farmer said...

The only reason I have seen to vote yes!

Sackerson said...

1. If the EU is willing to risk world war to annex the Ukraine, it will not hesitate to bend rules to admit Scotland. European judges can dress as Pierrots for all I care, I can't take their victor-invented, parvenu puisne laws and constitutions seriously.

2. How does the majority-vote change due in October bear on the ability of countries to blackball applicants for EU membership?

3. Scotland outside the EU for five years and that is a bad thing? It is a heartfelt desire of mine for the UK as a whole. Are you merely jealous?

Cascadian said...

Anybody arguing that the EU are bound by their rules have not been paying attention. I give you Ireland and Schengen.
There will be more votes until the desired result is obtained.

Prawn Sandwich said...

The bookies verdict is that Yes are rank outsiders. WHill quote Yes as 1/4 - says it all.

Much of the Yes vote is a spit in the eye for the wretched Westminster political class.

The fallout from this fiasco will be positive.

DeeDee99 said...

The EU will make the Treaties say whatever they want to happen.

If they want Scotland in the EU, they will do it.

If they want to send a message that secession won't be rewarded with separate EU membership, then they Treaties will forbid it.

We aren't dealing with people who have any real respect for the law - even their own.

The Spanish will be easily "persuaded" to fall into line.

Rush is Right said...

For the Jocks to extricate themselves simultaneously from both the UK AND the EU would only be a good thing, surely?

Granted they might not see it that way, but it would be a double win.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

I can see why the Spanish guy would say that, they are terrified of the Catalonians following suit (though in Catalonia, I think, 85% favour independence, so it's not really a parallel).

But the EU doesn't work that way.

The Treaties mean whatever "the colleagues" decide they want them to mean.

Remember that Scotland as a new member region (look at their map) advances their agenda - the cantonisation of England won't be far behind in their ambitions - so they will find a way to make it happen. All difficulties will be smoothed over, and my guess is that an "independent" Scotland will slide neatly into the EU the very day it separates from England.

There will, to be sure, be much huffing and puffing, but in real life the chaos and dislocation that would be caused even by one small insignificant region suddenly having no trading agreements with Europe, or any right to the free movement provisions etc etc, is just not going to happen. Salmond will become, as he seems to wish, a small impoverished area on the fringes of the great Brussels empire, constantly whinging on about one thing or another, and usually being ignored.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

...But there is still time for people to come to their senses.

Fingers crossed.

Bloke In Italy said...

But so what? as we have seen the yes campaign is not about facts it is about alex salmond's dream to be remembered as "great".

The fact that if he wins, ordinary scots will suffer for years and possibly for ever under a fairly extreme form of social democratic fascism, controlled by brussels (ffs) has not entered his calculations.

As every true demagogue down the ages he has seduced a generation of young lads (and lasses in his case) to some harebrained cause and to hell with them once he has got what he wanted.

An idea - can we not send him ff to brussels as a commissioner for bottom wiping or something?

Sebastian Weetabix said...

Send that vile, authoritarian, lying cunt to Brussels? Are you mad? The Europeans just dislike England; he positively hates you all. Imagine what fun he would have making laws beyond democratic reach. He'd probably ban cricket on environmental grounds.

john miller said...

The scence: A lavish room in Holyrood.

The time: 11a.m. Friday 19 September

Whisky bottles litter the floor. Jackets are thrown carelessly around the room. The air is heavy with cigarette smoke.

"Weel fook me." "Aye, ye kin say that agin." "I just canna believe it, boss. Who the fook thought they'd vote yes?"

"Aye",mutters the Fat Eck, "What the fook do we do now?"

Bloke In Italy said...

@ John Miller - love it!

Budgie said...

The day after the UK hands sovereignty to the newly independent Scotland, is the day that Scotland will join the EU. The EU has already bent its own rules to save the euro; it will do the same to "keep" Scotland in the EU.

Spain can bleat all it likes but the EU wants the regionalisation of Europe. The price the Scots will have to pay is to join the euro. The result? - England surrounded and weakened, as required (by the EU).

It ought not happen; it's not fair. But it will. Cameron, Milliband and Clegg not only play by the rules (as our culture dictates) but are weak and incompetent. The EU plays power and ignores the rules. Until we get patriots running our establishment we will get stomped on.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

@Budgie: Exactly.