Sunday, 18 January 2015

Election year

It's a long time to May, and anything could happen between now and then in a political landscape in which all the old certainties have gone. Iain Dale in the Indie makes just about the best guess I have seen for the election outcome (provided that everything stays the same);

Labour   293
Conservative    287
Libdem   25
SNP   18
UKIP    5

There's an old saw that tells us that whatever the state of the parties six months prior to an election will be the likely outcome; if this is the case, then Iain's punt may well be right. It feels right, anyway. However, the world is far from being in a stable phase; Jihadism, the global econony, Europe, Oil, the Islamic civil war, Ukraine. One can imagine a host of scenarios that would leave the government on the back foot, expose past political corruption / criminal malfeasance, or turn the people even more against politics the they are now. Mass terrorist outrages could even leave us with that dreaded spectre - Emergency Powers, with the election suspended, and Ed and Harriet in a War Cabinet and the army cooks from Aldershot on the street in body armour.  

And another election in September. Which coincidentally is the 200th anniversary of the British (and German, Belgian and Austrian) final victory over Napoleon and his European imperial ambitions. If you haven't yet ordered your free bronze waterloo medal replica (£2.50 postage) I urge you to do so; it's a lovely chunky thing, beautifully struck and very true to the original.


right_writes said...

I used to work for a company like that...

Once you spend your £2.50, they will be your bestest friend...

...for the rest of your natural born.

I sincerely hope that UKIP do better than Mr. Dale thinks...

It might make a little bit of difference when UKIP begin their campaign.

HTF do the Lib Dems manage 25 seats?

Raedwald said...

RW - I'm trusting readers to go for the one-off freebie and chuck the dross away; I guess names on the mailing list was the price that had to pay to get half a million free medals made.

As for UKIP ... there's a theory they do best when they say nothing at all ;)

DeeDee99 said...

The polls aren't stable so I'm not sure the 6-month out theory will apply this time.

Yesterday the Guardian published the latest Opinium:

Labour 33% (+3)
Tories 28% (-4)
UKIP 20% (+3)
Greens 7%
LibDem 6%

I cannot see how Iain Dale's predictions will work. Yes, he's looked at local circs but local circs are effected by national circs which in turn affect the polls.

How on earth will the LibDems end up with 24 seats if they have around 6-8% of the vote.

And on 18-20%, UKIP should get more than 5.

Dale predicts Rochester will dump Reckless and return to the Tories. Unlikely, now they've chosen Kelly Tollhurst as PPC again. She didn't shine 3 months ago and she won't shine in the next 3 months either.

TrT said...

National issues drive local elections, but national polls don't.

The winner is the side best able to concentrate their voters in areas they can win.
You can come second place everywhere, but to what end?
Lots on the national poll but little else.

This is going to be a wild swing.
The greens aren't going to win many seats, but they will torch the Labour youth and Lib Dem metropolitan votes.
That puts general decline on Labour, but a targeted seat loss on the lib dems.

Can Ukip concentrate a generalised protest vote in to winnable seats?
Maybe, maybe not.

FrankS said...

That leaves 22 MPs unaccounted for - they might have some influence on who is next PM.

Anonymous said...

I've got my medal thanks!

Coney Island

Anonymous said...

Like you said there are so many Black Swans out there events are starting to drive the politics.
I assume you have seen this?

My best calculated guess is that Europe's politics are going to become very volatile indeed.
And any political party that associates itself with the EU has hitched its wagon to a falling star.
I'd put UKIP at 20 +, Labour are going to lose seats to them as well.
And that's a pardon the pun, Conservative estimate.


G. Tingey said...

Things will NOT "remain the same"
What happens if we get:
Tories = Labour = 290 ???
or Tories are largest party ( 291 or 292) but can't form a coalition because of the vile Salmond/Sturgeon axis?

Could get very, very exiting.
For certain values of "exiting"

Anonymous said...

What still utterly amazes me is that Labour will actually get ANY votes at all - never mind enough to be seious contenders.
Their support base must comprise the dumbest bunch of non-thinkers and arse-lickers imaginable.

Plus all their 'postal votes' ....

Cascadian said...

The Iain Dale who is so politically astute that he could not get himself elected!

Tosh, gibberish and nonsense as he almost admits himself.

Last election was pretty much decided by a foolish error by Gordon Brown, somewhat related to immigration issues. I can foresee there may be massive changes in the once-industrial heartlands where this is a major issue, stir in the outfall of NHS failures and the abuse of young white girls and there is a toxic witches brew that could bubble over.

camoron is rightly despised by even conservatives, clegg is pointless, milliband is juvenile. Th electorate are in open rebellion.

Anything could happen.

When the conservative party in Canada ignored their electorate and governed like labour (I am taking extreme liberties here ther is no labour in Canada) they were reduced from 300+ seats to 2, a message was sent.