Friday, 13 February 2015

Another pause in Ukraine

The most informative maps of the conflict are to be found not in any of the MSM but on Wikipedia. Putin's gains become clear when you look at the extract below;

The red and blue areas are urban industrial concentrations, the pink and yellow bits are beet fields. Putin has secured every single town of significant size except Mariupol; Luhansk, Horlivka, Makiivka and Donetsk are all in rebel hands. Putin also dominates the Sea of Asov and controls all entry and exits. 

The rebels have set up their own nascent civil infrastructure and agreed on a common flag; there will be no going back to being parts of Ukraine just like all the rest. They have industry and the wealth producing bits whilst Kiev has the beet fields and the pensioners.

There will be a bit of tidying up today and tomorrow before the ceasefire boundary is set and then hopefully the final boundaries of the new autonomous region will fall out over the next few months as the shooting war remains on hold. If Putin is satisfied with what he's gained, and Ukraine bites the bullet and loses this tiny fraction of its territory not to Russia but to autonomous control than we can all breathe a sigh of relief. Not least the poor sods who have to live there. 

Only the ghastly warmongers will be unhappy; expect to hear much protest from armchair warriors in the UK and US urging more death and intensified warfare. They're prepared to fight to the last Slav for their values.

13 comments:

oldrightie said...

This scenario will stick in the craw of Common Purpose global corporate ambition. One which poked the Russian Bear with NATO tanks on Russia's lawn.

Good on Putin for telling them to foxtrot oscar!

mikebravo said...

A stunning success for the Ashton/Nuland plan.
I'm not so sure that they will give up that easily. USA must still want NATO to get hold of Sevastopol and Simferopol. That was surely one of the main reasons for the whole disaster.

cuffleyburgers said...

What a mess.

Partition often seems like a good solution but the shortterm effects can be dire as can the medium term and long term effects.

Trouble is once the racial hatred genie is out of the lamp it's damned hard to do much else.

As we are seeing all over the middle east as well, the Balkans.

As long as politicians are left in charge this shit is just going to go onand on.

G. Tingey said...

Putin is an ex-KGB thug & you are encouraging him to get away with it?
[ AGAIN ]
Presumably this will be his "final demand" - where have I heard that before?
Oh, Sudetendland, that was it ....

Anonymous said...

Raedwald said:

'There will be a bit of tidying up today and tomorrow before the ceasefire boundary is set and then hopefully the final boundaries of the new autonomous region will fall out over the next few months as the shooting war remains on hold.'

And the ongoing osmosis shouldn't take too long given the history of the area. Job done, probably.

Raedwald again:

'Only the ghastly warmongers will be unhappy; expect to hear much protest from armchair warriors in the UK and US urging more death and intensified warfare. They're prepared to fight to the last Slav for their values.'

Another look at that Wolfowitz Doctrine, from 1992:

Russian threat

'We continue to recognize that collectively the conventional forces of the states formerly comprising the Soviet Union retain the most military potential in all of Eurasia; and we do not dismiss the risks to stability in Europe from a nationalist backlash in Russia or efforts to reincorporate into Russia the newly independent republics of Ukraine, Belarus, and possibly others....We must, however, be mindful that democratic change in Russia is not irreversible, and that despite its current travails, Russia will remain the strongest military power in Eurasia and the only power in the world with the capability of destroying the United States.'

Then there's this, from last year:

'“Some US experts such as former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright have suggested that Moscow has power over enormous territory that it cannot develop and it prevents these territories from serving humanity’s needs. Statements are being made about the allegedly unjust distribution of natural resources and the necessity to provide free access to them for other nations,”'

The "New World Order" (George H W Bush) doesn't have a Russian Federation in it - or a Russia for that matter. A hard stop had to happen and it happened in Ukraine.

Steve

Cascadian said...

Greg, please be more consistent, your comment from a previous thread:

"There really is only one outcome; a partition of Ukraine, a new Russian - NATO border. And the sooner we get down to negotiating this the sooner the killing will stop.
This is called: APPEASEMENT."

Indeed it was appeasement, but also acceding to the populations wishes who had previously voted in referenda (you know those things that the EU ignore if the result is not suitable to their insane aims) to secede from Ukraine.

So politicians all over the western hemisphere have been disappointed, in no particular order:

Ashton/Nuland/Clintoon, disastrously showcased how the feminine politicians touch they have been trumpeting for years is not only no better than the WOGS (white old guys) but based purely on whimsical and often hysterical analysis that does not accord to reality.

camoron, total twat, when a solution was required his input was not only ignored but his presence was very sensibly shunned.

British contribution to world affairs, the foreign secretary confidently stated Britain was not an irrelevance, very reassuring.

Merkel-Hollande, the bobbsey twins, no match for Putin conceded everything. Will now take their double act on tour and concede to Greece, Italy, Spain, maybe even Ireland.

Obambi, performed as expected, he will make his decision next month and be surprised that the problem has resolved itself. Yemen conceded, their is more appeasement in this donkey yet.

Kerry, Biden and state department feminists will all celebrate by buying some new panties, their existing pairs have been soiled too frequently to be reusable. Again showcases the female touch in diplomacy.

Petroshenko (sp?) poor sap, led astray by extravagant EU promises all of which failed to be implemented, still waiting for the EU rapid reaction force. Serves him right for ignoring democracy.

NATO, still thrashing around searching for relevance and somebody to bankroll them.

EU rapid reaction force, well played chaps though you may wish to reconsider the rapid,reaction and force parts of your title.

Putin, has himself an agreement with China and most of Europe's natural gas. Will bleed EU dry to pay for his expenses. Will continue to fly Bear bombers over Bournemouth and the US coast whenever he feels like it.

I am pleased for the people of the newly liberated states from Ukraine. Even more pleased that EU stupidity was exposed and rebuffed. May they live in peace.

Ian R Thorpe said...

I think the most significant outcome is that once again Putin has thwarted Obama's efforts to start a shooting war, and made America look weak and incompetent in the process.

G. Tingey said...

Cascadian
Could I have all that again, in comprehensible English,please?

Whatever the faults of the EU in the Ukraine ... NO TROOPS OR INVASION - that has cone from Putin's KGB cronies, hasn't it?

Cascadian said...

Greg......"the faults of the EU in the Ukraine" and you are proud of that?

Obviously the EU does not have the capability, the USA does not have the will to support their diplomatic errors, makes one wonder why they kicked up a fuss in the first place. They have just shown the world (once again) they are unreliable allies and not to be trusted.

When Putin is the only guy supporting the results of democratic referenda it is hard to support the ridiculous machinations of USA or EUroland.

This is not the end of this problem, Putin will squeeze EUroland and Ukraine you will pay for attempting to destabilise his economy.

G. Tingey said...

Caacadian
No, I'm not - it was stupid & clumsy
BUT
No troops there - plenty of "Little green men" from Russia though, being killed for Putin's macho show.
Err "democratic referenda" - like those in N Korea do you mean?

Budgie said...

Cascadian said: "They have just shown the world (once again) they are unreliable allies and not to be trusted."

Did you mean the USA is an unreliable ally to the EU, or vice versa?

In either case it is perfectly possible that both parties do not want the same outcome, or the same process. This may appear to the other as "unreliable", but only if the other lacks tolerance and cannot countenance even slight deviations from their world view.

Cascadian said...

Budgie, my apologies for a lack of clarity, I meant to convey that BOTH the EU and the USA are unreliable allies to whichever country in future finds itself in difficulties.

Cascadian said...

Greg, your naivete is charming. Keep spouting the official BBC line.