Friday, 13 March 2015

Rory Stewart - Defence debate

With apols for yesterday's wayward post - I plead work, Marc and tiredness - I republish an extract from Rory Stewart's speech in the Commons yesterday in the Defence debate;

"That is a fundamental point, so let me deal with it briefly. We need to work from the assumption of three things. First, we must agree that these things are threats. There is a huge debate within the civil service, where some people are beginning to say, “Perhaps failed states and terrorist groups are not really threats at all; perhaps everything we have done in Afghanistan and Iraq was mistaken, and we do not need to worry about what is happening in Libya, Iraq and Syria.” Secondly, we need to assume that Britain wants to do something and actually wishes to be a global power. There is another danger in this whole debate, with people in Whitehall saying, “Perhaps this is none of our business; perhaps these things are threats, but somebody else such as the United States will deal with those threats for us”—a freeloader problem. Thirdly and most importantly—this comes to the centre of the strategy—we need to believe that we have a doctrine that can deal with these things. We need to believe that we can deal with them and that we have the capability to engage.

I shall deal with resources needs separately. First, the threat posed by Russia’s recent actions requires serious imagination. We have had “reassurance measures”—the grisly jargon we produced in Wales, essentially to talk about setting up a high-readiness joint taskforce, about exercising in NATO at a divisional level and about air policing operations. Those things need to be resourced. It will be surprisingly difficult in practice to have that very high-readiness joint taskforce, with all its enablers in place and functioning, particularly when some of the framework nations are still insisting that they can take their forces out of that very high-readiness joint taskforce and deploy them somewhere else such as in the Central African Republic.

It is much more than that, however. This House will have heard that we need to invest. Here, however, the idea that flat real plus 1% is somehow going to be enough cannot be the case if we are serious about the threats. Let me run through some of the requirements. Maritime surveillance is an obvious one, so there is no point debating it here today. Chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear capacity is another. Any Members present who were in the armed forces will remember training, walking around in NBC suits and thinking about how to deal with that kind of threat. All that capacity has gone out the window. We do not do that any more, because we have been fighting for nearly 15 years against lightly-armed insurgents, and most of our planning was based on counter-insurgency warfare operations that did not require that kind of training.
Ballistic missile defence is a third requirement. If we are serious about taking on a country such as Russia, which has tactical nuclear weapons as part of its normal operational doctrine, we need ballistic missile defence. That will probably mean—I do not want to pre-empt procurement decisions made by the Ministry—finding some way of buying into an existing US system and persuading the US to locate it not just in continental Europe, but in the United Kingdom.

If we look at our Navy, we find that it is currently down to 19 frigates and destroyers. That is pretty radical. What we have heard in the other place from Lord Astor is that our attrition calculations are currently zero. That means that we function on the assumption that we are not going to lose any of these frigates or destroyers. Lord Astor said that we have not lost any of those things since the Falklands war, so we do not need to worry about that. Of course, the Falklands war was the last time that we were fighting a navy, so it does not provide a basis for making this sort of calculation if we are thinking about taking on Russia.

It is the same for the Royal Air Force. As we move down to just seven squadrons, our attrition calculations are again pretty close to zero. If we are serious about carriers, we need to realise that they cost a lot of money. If we are to put one carrier at sea, we need to think about how to resupply it and how to get the fuel and weapons to it. The fuel and weaponry supply vessels will be moving along at 9 knots, which poses a huge challenge to us. We need to work out where to get the money to buy the planes to put on that carrier. How can we have a comprehensive carrier strike capacity? We have not yet paid for it.

Then there is the Army. If we are thinking about manoeuvre warfare again, it amounts to a huge spending commitment. It means thinking about heavy armour and whether we want to relocate the Royal Air Force at an Army headquarters level rather than two levels up. It means wide water bridging capacity and all the things that any Members present who operated during the NATO era will be able to think of much better than me.

Then there is ambiguous warfare. If we are thinking about dealing with Russia, we are going to have to think about what to do on cyber, information operations, strategic communications; and we will need to think about whether we have the special forces capacity right the way around the edge of Russia to deal with the phenomenon of these “green men” in these insurgency operations. We need the knowledge of places such as Narva in Estonia.

That is the easy stuff. That is before we get on to the concurrent threats, mentioned by the hon. Member for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. If we in this country take seriously the idea that we care about threats from failed states, terrorists and Islamist groups, we are going to have to think about northern Nigeria, Libya and Yemen, and we are going to have to think much more seriously about Syria and Iraq. We are going to have to think about continuing to support Afghanistan and, potentially, Pakistan, and if we do not do something about these places now as a coalition, it is just going to get worse. We will be reporting back to the House in two years’ time, and the Nigerian problem will have spread into Chad and Niger; the Libyan problem will have re-exploded back into Mali; Syria and Iraq will be destabilising Lebanon and Jordan even more profoundly than they are now.

Unfortunately, in dealing with these problems, we cannot base what we do on the Future Force 2020 structure. That was about the enduring stabilisation operations and heavy investment in counter-insurgency operations, with 100,000 people retained for a decade or more. That works if we have only one of these problems, but it simply does not work if we are dealing with a dozen of them at one time. So we need a much lighter, smarter approach to dealing with these countries. That will mean moving out of the world view of “one at a time” and not losing confidence. That is central; it cannot be about despair. It is about recognising that in Bosnia and Sierra Leone, we did these things quite well, but that if we are serious about them, we are going to have to upgrade our special forces and potentially look at—again, these are just ideas—type 2 special forces of the “green beret” type that they have in the United States. We may need to develop the idea of the Chief of the General Staff on defence engagement, but much more ambitiously, much more imaginatively and much more aggressively, including pre-posting officers into a dozen countries. We may be talking about 50 or 100 officers at a time, not about just one defence attaché covering three Baltic countries, and we may need to rethink the whole force structure that lies behind that.

I have run out of time, so let me say a few things in conclusion. I have sketched out a world which, as was made clear by the hon. Member for Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney, is very different now. It is different in terms of the conventional threat, but—and this is something that we have only touched on so far—it is, above all, different in terms of the concurrent threats that are emerging from all the fragile states. We have not begun to think those through. We have not begun to consider the deep implications of the skills set, the force structures and the capacity that we would need in order to deal with those states simultaneously.

The 2% of GDP matters for several reasons. First, we can deal with these problems only as a coalition, because they are beyond the sort of problems that Britain can deal with on its own. The 2% matters because it is a way of raising the commitment of more than 20 NATO countries to matching that expenditure themselves. It essential to keep the United States bound into the system, because it is currently spending 70% of the NATO money. The President, the chief of the United States army, and the United States ambassador to the United Nations have all made it clear that they view the 2% as a sign of seriousness and of Britain’s commitment to keep the United States involved. Above all, however, the 2% is needed because the threats are real. The world is genuinely becoming more dangerous, and Britain cannot be a freeloader.

One of the sad aspects of what I feel is happening is our growing obsession with kit. People stand up and list all the different bits of kit that we have bought, but they do not intend ever to use it. They are freeloading on the idea that Britain will never act alone, that the United States will somehow fill in all the gaps, and that therefore we do not need to be serious about what we are actually doing in countries such as Libya. The challenge to Ministers should be, “Explain how we are to deal with a situation like the one in Libya. Explain what we are going to do in Yemen and northern Nigeria. Explain how this kit will really prevent us from letting the Russians into Mariupol.” Do we care about those issues, or are we creating an isolationist world view?"


Anonymous said...

"The President, the chief of the United States army, and the United States ambassador to the United Nations have all made it clear that they view the 2% as a sign of seriousness and of Britain’s commitment to keep the United States involved."

But perhaps our glorious leaders have realised that their future lies in forming a EU centric defence system and jettisoning the alien influence of those damned Septics?

I have noticed this about their codd realisations before!

Dean Ditchbank said...

1. A country cannot spend more on its military than its economy can support long-term

2. Vast third world population overshoot, and the hopes of those populations of a still-rising standard of living, will make the world much more dangerous to us than it has been in our lifetimes. Collapsing states mean Africans and others paddling across the Med to us. We must be able to keep them out

3. The accelerating collapse of the petrodollar means that the US is worsening this instability by intervening & creating failed states. We have no business in Ukraine, and military preparing for confrontation there are part of the problem

4. The Muslim Middle East is going to tear itself apart whatever we do. We must stay out & contain as far as possible - trying to hold up the House of Saudi won't help long term. Even warring Arab states have to sell oil in order to finance their wars

5. We have defence forces for the DEFENCE OF THE REALM. British forces incl TA must be very visibly stationed in the UK, with uniforms seen in town centres, just as France is now having to do, in order to disuade the Muzz from edging us towards civil conflict

Wildgoose said...

Excellent analysis there, but the real key is the ability to act independently. To be able to stand up for our own interests no matter what any other country thinks. (I will always remember the Falklands and when we placed an order for ammunition to Belgium which was refused).

We need to first consider what our own interests are, and only then how our forces can be used co-operatively within larger organisations.

As a trading nation with a population so large it cannot feed itself, that means an emphasis on the Navy. The RAF is primarily needed for UK Defence, the Navy should expect to provide air cover further afield. And we should be looking to a long term future - those aircraft carriers are going to need to be flying drones and helicopters. Furthermore they should be nuclear powered so that they cannot be disabled by simply taking out slow supply ships.

Good quality equipment for the troops (or marines) on the ground is also key. Its small beer compared to the prices for modern combat aircraft, but it gets ignored. It is simply outrageous that our soldiers can be pinned down in places like Afghanistan by insurgents whose weapons have a longer range which means our people cannot return fire!

Effective Defence spending starts by analysing what is needed and what can be done flexibly and cheaply - the extremely expensive toys come later, if at all. It is also worth remembering Stalin's dictum that "Quantity has a Quality of its own". We could have bought twice as many Saab Gripens as we did Eurofighter Typhoons, and the Gripen is dirt cheap to run as well.

Anonymous said...

Then we need to think about the fifth column that we have deliberately imported, encouraged and assisted to destroy our way of life from within...

Anonymous said...

[...]we must agree that these things are threats. There is a huge debate within the civil service, where some people are beginning to say, “Perhaps failed states and terrorist groups are not really threats at all; perhaps everything we have done in Afghanistan and Iraq was mistaken, and we do not need to worry about what is happening in Libya, Iraq and Syria.” [/quote]

Yes, the fifth column whispers these poisons, is a considerable and building threat to Britain our police and CPS are deeply compromised as is the whole administration.

Fortunately, most of the majority of the Armed forces are as yet untainted by the corruption of the fifth columnists, how long that lasts is anyones guess. Moreover, we do NOT forget - the PC brigade as we speak seek to neuter our armed forces by stealth and through the idiocies and straitjacket of the HRA and equality and diversity quotas - not least permitting the insanity of women insinuating into the front line.

Where do we go even if the fifth column has been stamped on, if we are out of the clutches of the EU then we have to commence thinking like a sovereign nation and defence is vital to our security - so yes to a new and advanced nuclear deterrent.


As we are a maritime nation totally reliant on shipping for our daily bread, if follows that we must bolster our surface and submarine naval capacity and forthwith.
The army needs two viable divisions and with an increased recruitment of a bigger reserve fighting force capable of providing upto division strength on full mobilization - problem here, is functioning and operable kit.
Airborne capability maybe? and rapid reaction forces with light armoured brigades definitely, heavy armoured - probably not with anti tank technology moving on and so fast.
However, war with Russia unlikely, if Britain was out of the EU we would make alliance with Russia, in a spirit of perfidious Albion - always, we need to consider what is good for Britain not what is appropriate: for Germany and France.

Navy and Army to integrate and absorb the RAF - we don't need a separate flying corp and drone aircraft would be where the future is heading.

Anonymous said...

We no longer have a cohered society so even a particial re-run of a WWII type East European war is unthinkable. Our politicians rejected nationhood back in the 1960's. A folk of common descent, culture and language is an incredibly powerful defensive tool.

(Two examples are the Battle of Britain and Stalingrad)

We couldn't do another Operation Corporate today and that was a relatively small campaign, similar in size to Crete, where we lost.

No, I'm afraid our warmongering days are over and we better prey the hawks in Washington have their necks wrung soon.


Anonymous said...

The Rory Stewart speech was simply excellent, I don't think I've heard anything as good before from the Hoc.

I've also listened to former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of NATO General Sir Richard Shirreff who said never mind not meeting Article 5 NATO commitment (ie spending) we arguably don't meet Article 3 (being able to defend ourselves because of the lack of Airborne Sea Patrol)

Anonymous said...

But the airborne sea patrol problem is a direct cause of having a blank cheque MoD.

There is no better example of waste and incompetence than the defence budget.

The only way to stop the idiots is to limit the money they have to piss away

Thud said...

Abandon America, alliance with Russia, its a laugh a minute here.

Budgie said...

Thud, I think you need to take off your prejudice specs. The "abandon America" idea (not that the USA would notice of course), was sarcastic, a dig at "our glorious leaders"; and the "alliance with Russia" suggestion was a dig at Germany and France to annoy them.

Budgie said...

With all the hoo-ha about Tony's multi-millions, ISIS, UKIP's racism [sic], and some celeb's a'rse, we seem to have forgotten that the dreadful state of our armed forces is largely down to Cameron.

It is a bit much for some Tory MPs to (apparently) wake up and start whinging at this stage of the parliament. What about 4 years ago? Oh! There's an election ...... Why didn't you say?

We will just have to remember Cameron as the originator of Prince Charles' enormous steam catapult. And as the idiot that left an 8 year hole in UK aircraft carrier capability ("Dear Enemy, please be so kind as to defer any actions requiring us to use aircraft carriers until at least 2020 ...").

Cascadian said...

Let me explain what should be obvious, you have spent your "peace dividend" (and much more) on the importation of mostly unskilled immigrants from the third world, you have housed, fed and schooled them at very great expense, they tend not to be nett contributors to GDP. At the same time you have elected to follow an insanely expensive energy policy based on climactic myths. That could have been your military budget. The drain on your budget will be constant.

It is however interesting to see words such as freeloader entering the conversation, even the obvious has to be acknowledged eventually. They even discuss the EU "rapid reaction force" with no sense of irony.

Also interesting to see discussion related to central Africa completely detached from the obvious cause-the destruction of Libya and Tunisia. These fools pretending to be a global power cannot discern that the greatest threat is at home.

G. Tingey said...

Echo everyone here at the dangerously low level of the navy.
The re-run of the period 1923-39 is already underway, though "out of sync" with the last time around.
The economic crash has come first, this time.
Da'esh (ISIL) are the equivalent of the München failded putsch - we await (with fear) a charismatic "Caliphate" leader to take them over ...defence, especially of the Navy is at a minimum ( Below a minimum, actually) & voices are heard, quite correctly calling for re-armament.
Last, scary straw in wind:
"Lord" Baker ( Kenneth Baker? ) predicting a tory-Labour coalition to keep the SNP out.
Called a "National Government" I believe?
One thing is missing, on our side - no equivalent of either WSC or FDR.

Scary stuff.
War in 9 years then?