Wednesday, 8 July 2015

Grexit beckons

It seems what we predicted twice in 2012, several times in 2013 and slightly fewer time in 2014 is finally going to happen; AEP is one of the most informed commentators on the crisis, and he can't see an alternative. The EU will not / can not volunteer to take a €177bn hit so will take a €320bn involuntary hit instead. 

Europeans, some of the world's cleverest people, really can be incredibly dense. The collective stupidity of Europe's political class continues to astound me. AEP writes;
But that is a detail compared with the damage to the European political project and the Nato alliance if Greece is thrown to wolves against the strenuous objections of France, Italy and the US. It is hard to imagine what would remain of Franco-German condominium. Washington might start to turn its back on Nato in disgust, leaving Germany and the Baltic states to fend for themselves against Vladimir Putin's Russia, a condign punishment for such loss of strategic vision in Greece. Mr Lapavitsas said Europe's own survival as civilisational force in the world is what is really at stake. "Europe has not show much wisdom over the last century. It launched two world wars and had to be saved by the Americans," he said


DeeDee99 said...

It's the Teutonic/Lutherist character: inflexible, dogmatic and incapable of backing down with grace.

Anonymous said...

Deadlines? What deadlines? Yesterday, the EU was saying that if "by today" (meaning Wed 8th July) Greece had not tabled sensible alternative proposals, then they would be ejected from the Euro. Today (Wed 8th July) they are now saying the deadline is the weekend. And so it is that these so-called deadlines are never actually completed. What does that tell the Greek government? Who really holds the aces here?

Coney Island

Weekend Yachtsman said...

"Europeans, some of the world's cleverest people, really can be incredibly dense"

Beg to differ, Radders.

It's the EU political class which is being dense.

Most Europeans can see exactly what should be done.

But the priority is The Project, always The Project, and nothing but The Project, so it's no wonder they get everything else wrong.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

In fact, come to think of it, the motto of the EU really ought to be "Tutto nello Progetto, niente al di fuori dello Progetto, nulla contro lo Progetto"

Mike Spilligan said...

Juncker's (and all the other's) biggest fear is not that Greece will fail after a euro exit, but that it will be - in the medium term - very successful. Then we will all wonder why we think we needed this extra layer of government.
I used to like AEP's columns but he's proved to be wrong so many times that I've down-rated him.
The geo-political bit is too complex - a decision tree would have a thousand branches - but I don't think Putin is out to "corner" the west. Obama (the Leader of the Free World, y'know) is clearly a fool with his approaches to Iran and Cuba.

Elby the Beserk said...

Slightly off topic, but further evidence that the EU is off in an world of its own - but a huge danger to all of us

"“Islam belongs in Europe. It holds a place in Europe’s history, in our culture, in our food and – what matters most – in Europe’s present and future,” wrote Mogherini, before adding, “I am not afraid to say that political Islam should be part of the picture. Religion plays a role in politics – not always for good, not always for bad. Religion can be part of the process. What makes the difference is whether the process is democratic or not.”"


Budgie said...

Coney Island, the EU was saying it would be Armageddon if the Greeks voted No, now they say it is merely a matter of broken bridges. Tomorrow they will say it is a difficult negotiation. They threaten and bluster as it suits, irrespective of the truth.

It is best to think of the EU, not as a democratic and reasonable association bound by the rule of law, but as a Satrapy run by a bunch of minor kings, warlords, or gangster bosses. Rules are for the little people, the Junckers of the EU do not need them.

Budgie said...

I note that the Germans are complaining loudly that rich idle Greeks are living off the toil of German workers. And Greeks certainly have big noses. Or shouldn't I be saying this?

Cascadian said...

So the banks got their share of other peoples money (OPM) to alleviate their stupidity.

The Greeks want their share of OPM to alleviate their greed and stupidity, which will be quickly followed by Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus, and France to alleviate their socialist stupidity. This is going to get mighty expensive and who is paying this OPM and with what? Hint, it is you, perhaps a tobin tax.

Interesting to see reference to the USA and an implied threat to remove the NATO reaction force.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Removing the NATO reaction force would play right into the hands of the EU high panjandrums.

They've been scheming and plotting for a European army for ages, and it really irks them that the real power in Europe is mostly American.