Friday, 27 November 2015

Syria - Fraser Nelson, not David Cameron, has the truth of it

In the Telegraph this morning Fraser Nelson repeats pretty much everything I've written here over the past weeks and months as to why the UK joining military action for the sake of a military outcome is not justified;
  • Our RAF contribution will be marginal and will have little effect. Everything there is to bomb has already been bombed
  • ISIS have long ago abandoned permanent ground targets, only individual vehicles and convoys remain as targets. Plus individual targeted Jihadists.
  • Until this week, convoy targets excluded the columns of oil tankers transporting oil for Turkey's Bilal Erdogan; however, now that both the Russians and US / France are targeting, these will not last for long
  • Bombing without ground troops in support makes no sustainable gains
  • Dave's imaginary friends, the '70,000 non-extremist rebels', erm, don't exist. The septics spent $12m training a battalion and all but six men ran away and sold their weapons, any others (a few) are Islamists who hate the West  
  • Cameron can be pig-headed against his own interest; his obsession with regime change in Syria lingers, even though he has no mandate for it, it's losing him Commons support and it's illegal under international law
All of the above has been and will be used to hammer Call Me Dave before a Commons vote, but Nelson has written for all to see the only real and valid reasons for voting Yes for air strikes on ISIS in Syria - it buys us a place at the allies table, the French would be deeply grateful (as much as the Kermits can be) and it maintains the UK's international player status. All of which are worth sending our three or four aircraft in theatre on Syrian sorties.  

'Mail' the first to come round on Turkey
The Mail is the first of the national papers to start to come round to the opinions expressed on this blog with an anti-Erdogan piece this morning;
"The fact is that ISIS could rapidly be destroyed if Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq — along with Kurdish guerillas in Turkey — were fully unleashed. They have proved extraordinarily militarily effective and oppose every aspect of Isis’s devilish ideology. Yet this does not happen because PKK forces in Syria and Kurds in northern Iraq are under continual bombardment by the Turkish air force. No, the fact is that while Turkey may be a member of Nato — and of the alliance taking on the jihadists — Erdogan seems to be doing almost everything he can to cripple the forces actually fighting ISIS."


right_writes said...

You can guarantee that if Cameron is leaning towards a particular strategy, it will be the wrong one for the people that he is supposed to be governing.

I suspect that you are entirely correct in that he wants to be at the top table...

Weak men like to "embiggen" themselves at every opportunity.

I note that Breitbart headlined last night with the news that Turkey is to be "fast tracked" into our great nation. Islam is the "religion of piece" don't you know, and Turkey wants a bigger peace.

Now how can we make Putin look even more evil than all of the Daily Mail readers already know?

Dean Ditchbank said...

All credit to you Raedwald.

Now perhaps we ought to think some more about the domestic position. What first steps can be taken against the enemies of our political culture that won't panic our liberal-utopian policy makers?

I'm for Radder's Law myself. Why tolerate the five-times daily public hate crime of the Koran war-chant? Why allow them to teach it to children? Is this not child abuse? Should we not take children exposed to this mass psychosis into care for de-programming?

Anonymous said...

Yesterday, another charade was played out in the Commons, it was schoolboy stuff from that Eton fop Camerloony, he sexed it up as much as he could and then some.

For crying out loud, it was fifth form style 'Levant theatre' analysis 40 odd years of FCO dumbing down, and EU swallowing up our diplomatic 'sources' and resources......these days, that's how good are our Military/MOD/MI6 surveillance = JTAC sources who cobbled a dodgy rambling dossier [was Campbell about?] full of malformed ideas, half truths and some fantasy delusional notions about 'friendly' rebel forces.
I had to make a real an effort to control my weeping torrents it would have been hilarious if it wasn't so fucking threadbare and pathetic.
But for Dave in his element, it was a performance of epic Vaudeville. With half baked and souring rhetoric, did we see a doppleganger of Bliar rising to the event, messianic ardour and raving loonytoons in the same moment, the problem also, was that, the jerk offs on the green benches mainly swallowed all of that specious guff.

Britain, we are in with the wrong allies Russia should be our guide. Idiots, the USA and France are at variance, the Turks are bombing the only lads [Kurds] really having a go at Daesh and the Saudis/satraps continue to pour in arms to the their boys in the Daesh. The only real alternative is Bashar al Assad and Dave can't back him because Obarmy says he can't.

Either, or - Chucking a few more UK paid for expensive armaments - ain't going to help.

I would recommend that the UK resort to enlightened and pragmatic diplomacy - banging heads together and sowing some much needed cogent analysis and reality.

However, the trouble is, that, the UK diplomacy network, back channels has frayed and fallen out of use and almost silent.

Our UK foreign sources seem totally reliant on what al Jazeera is reporting and what the Saudis can order, telling us what we should do. Thus, the UK is hopelessly toothless and compromised - due in no small part to the collapse of the FCO and because post WWII they washed their hands and gave it all over to the cousins, who told us unceremoniously that we had to join a federal Europa and that they [USA] were in charge and see where that has got us....impasse, confusion and surrender.

What Britain needs to do.

WE need to forge our own way, free of Yank, German and French allies, permeated, perpetuated and determined in splendid isolation, vaguely attached but not part of and subsumed by the Brussels slave Empire and playing off America with China but always in touch with our Commonwealth.

Anonymous said...

"WE need to forge our own way, free of Yank, German and French allies, permeated, perpetuated and determined in splendid isolation, vaguely attached but not part of and subsumed by the Brussels slave Empire and playing off America with China but always in touch with our Commonwealth."

We're always told that our Empire is dead - a legacy a thing of the past.

But here's the thing. We could still lead. If we had a government of common sense and integrity, rather than the sycophant of the global elites, subservient to bollocks like mass immigration, climate change and multiculturalism, nations would be throwing themselves at us to ally. Our culture is second to none.

However it relies of having politicians of vision and integrity, which are as common as rocking horse shit.

G. Tingey said...

Are you suggesting that Camoron is some reincarnation of the second-worst ( Worst was Lord North) PM we've ever had - Anthony Eden?
[ Everything he touched turned to shit ]
Interesting idea.

This However it relies of having politicians of vision and integrity, which are as common as rocking horse shit. is also true, unfortunately.

Anonymous said...

"70,000" are imaginary ->

Also the Kurds. Every commentator I read says that they're not as good as you may think, partly because they understand how far they can extend themselves, and b) they won't fight outside of Kurdish areas because they know it will trigger a response from the Arabs. So don't depend on the Kurds.

Given the fractured nature of the Syrian opposition you also have to wonder about their willingness to fight outside their own territories also.

A lot of what the problem is is down to a Civil War between Sunni and Shia and the strength of ISIS are the Sunni tribes spanning the Iraq/Syria border. I wonder if all this will simply carry on until the point where someone convinces the tribes that their best future does not lie with ISIS religious nutters.

Blame Maliki

Raedwald said...

Anon - yes, that piece of tripe in the Speccie has got 40 comments so far, each one of which shreds Charles Lister's preposterous claim; remember who employs him and what he's for.

The piece is rubbish - the comments are gems!

Nick Drew said...

three or four aircraft in theatre

good phrase

Anonymous said...

I'll simplify shall I? We're on the wrong side in this one, in fact we're at variance with what common sense would have suggested if your enemy has already fought several religious wars against you. What you don't do is provoke by re-entering any of their lands: they gang up under the umbrella of their belief system = you have to fight them on multiple fronts across multiple regions.

Identify and remove the proselytizers only. Repeat and repeat until they get the message that decapitation is a bad career choice.


right_writes said...

@Greg Tingey...

No, I would say he is about average for this country.... :)

They all seem to be doing something other than looking after the interests of the people that they govern.

Anonymous said...

"We're on the wrong side in this one"

There is no right side in this one. Assad is a cruel Fascist dictator. Daesh is equally cruel, and one part of its success is that it includes the remnants of Saddam's enforcers. Erdogan is an Islamist (Muslim Brotherhood). Al Quaeda we know well. The Iranian regime is an Imperialist near-dictatorship; so is the Russian.

Hopefully the end result will be a lot of small states, none big enough to cause trouble.

Don Cox