Monday, 30 November 2015

US pressure on Turkey - generals get ready

Finally the US has woken up to Erdogan's help to ISIS in prolonging the war in Syria, and to the danger to Europe from his using migrants as a weapon. The Indie reports on Obama's ultimatum to Turkey to seal the border with ISIS and halt the flow of oil into Turkey and arms and reinforcements back into the caliphate. We identified this a key objective of the Russians prior to a final assault on Aleppo and a move on Raqqa in a post on 6th October - the map below is from that time and does not reflect gains / losses on the ground since

However, the chances of Erdogan complying with the US request are slim. Obama also also only wants the easternmost gateway into Turkey closed - he imagines the Islamists fighting Assad in the west and taking arms and money from Washington are 'moderate' and given they are also supported by Turkey will makes no moves to limit their terrorism. 

Erdogan is now skating on very thin ice; the EU is reeling from his policy of actively pushing migrants into Greece, with Turkey's old ally France in particular grief at this betrayal, he's lost Russia's support and now the US has turned against him. The generals must surely now be taking quiet soundings from these international players as to the likelihood of sanctions and international opprobrium if they act to remove Erdogan. If they get an answer that a coup will mean a deal of disapproving noise but nothing concrete followed by a swift move to co-operation if Turkey both halts the migrant flow, takes the pressure from the Kurds and closes the border to ISIS then Erdogan's days are numbered. 

Back on 6th October I wrote:
Make no mistake; Turkey and the KSA are our real enemies, and the real threats to peace. We need to pour money and troops into Greece to secure Europe's Eastern flank against Turkey, and give full support to Russia, Syria and the Kurds in blocking Turkey from the South. Only then will peace start to return to Iraq and Syria, and the tsunami of migrants into Europe actively facilitated by Turkey start to stem. Oh yes. We need to kick Turkey out of NATO.
I stand by that statement.  However, if Erdogan is replaced by a non-Islamist military government her place in NATO is not at risk. 


Anonymous said...

Sibel Edmonds has been predicting a coup in Turkey before the end of 2015

Crazed Weevil said...

The problem with relying on a military coup to sort this mess out is that Erdogan has been replacing a lot of the higher ranking officers with his own people over the years.

I'm not so sure they'll leap in to save Turkey from him now and if they do it could easily end up a civil war if they don't get him quickly and he digs his heels in. That would be an even greater mess...

Cuffleyburgers said...

Radders - I remember your post and at the time I disagreed with your analysis as far as Turkey was concerned.

However it is now much clearer so well done - excellent reporting, Erdogan really is a complete menace and I have been slow to realise how bad.

I have always liked Turkey and have worked a lot with Turks - god help them all,as I don't see any good ending.

Anonymous said...

A Sunni dedicated to Wahhabist ideology, whatever else did you expect?

Erdogan's first move was to purge the Turkish Army, he removed 300 odd officers and banged them up, some for 20 years. Erdogan's takeover was as a coup masquerading as democracy, that [possibly] he should be now ousted in a military coup, the irony would be piquant as it would be most satisfactory.

Anonymous said...

This is a filthy business and one that will be written about long after we're gone.

A supposedly modern state has been actively supporting large scale terrorism and, not only does our government know about it so does NATO, the EU and probably the UN. If bloggers can get to the truth then I'm damn sure the combined efforts of western intelligence can. The Russians have known from the start but give them due the planning for their (active) campaign would have taken some time to put together.

Expect more from them: probably a swift but limited ground campaign to close the border involving Russian Naval Infantry (Marines) and Spetsnaz. However at least two airborne divisions is the minimum required to cripple IS - just who will ante up that kind of force is anyone's guess. A further infantry division may be needed to crush IS in Kurdish areas of operation. The game's afoot.

Good call Raedwald.


Fantana said...


In early 2013 Croatian weaponry was purchased and provided by Saudi to the FSA.

FSA fighters were suddenly operating M60 recoilless guns, RPG-22s, M79 Osas and RBG-6 grenade launchers - none of which had ever been stocked by the Syrian military.

Within six weeks Kataib Ahrar al-Sham fighters were seen operating RBG-6s and M79 Osas in Hama on 1st March.

Two weeks after that Jabhat al-Nusra posted images of its fighters using an M79 Osa inal-Sahweh, Deraa ana a n M60 recoilless rifle in Busra al-Harir, Deraa on 2 March.

The weapons had been both sold and shared between the original recipients and groups on the most Islamic end of the ideological spectrum.

(see The Syrian Jihad, Charles R Lister.)

formertory said...

Whoever takes over, I'm sure they'll enjoy the €3 billion that the ever-gullible EU just gifted them, or bribed them with, or was blackmailed into giving. And I'm sure the Turks will "spend" it wisely.

Anonymous said...

Erdogan is a Muslim Brotherhood man. The Brotherhood believe in one-party states. They are the Muslim equivalent of the traditional Moscow-supported Marxists. (Whereas the more extreme ISIS are more like Maoists.)

Morsi in Egypt moved too fast toward the one-party state, and was duly toppled by the military. Erdogan has been more cunning, making sure the military were emasculated first.

It would be a disaster for the EU if Turkey became a full member with Erdogan in power.

Don Cox

Gordon the Fence Post Tortoise said...


The millenarianism, lowlife idjits from urban "ghettos" in the west and plain common or garden banditry is going to take some mopping up - and I don't see Iran mentioned ... they have a long running grudge with the Sunnis who precipitated the Iran-Iraq war - i.e. the Gulfies and The House of Saud. Presently Erdogan presumes to be the grand strategist ... but I suspect Tehran has other ideas.....

The kaleidoscope of horrors just got a shake.

Thud said...

Erdogan has been a bad actor since dau one, a transitional military govt with the secular constitution being strengthened and publicised for the western whingers would be a desirable future outcome.

G. Tingey said...

However at least two airborne divisions is the minimum required to cripple IS
Beg to disagree.
ONE armoured brigade ....
Agree re "good call though"
Erdogan is a real menace, because he's been so crafty about it, so far....
He has been systematically betraying Mustapha Kemal's legacy

Anonymous said...

G. Tingey said @ 08:44

'Beg to disagree.'

Clearing IS from towns and cities will require fighting in built-up areas (FIBUA). That is NOT the environmemt for armoured units. That's why (NATO) tactical orders begin with GROUND > what are you fighting over will determine the type of force.


Visc said...

"Finally the US has woken up to Erdogan's help to ISIS in prolonging the war in Syria, and to the danger to Europe from his using migrants as a weapon."

SOrry I have to disagree teh US has been aware and complicit if not directing opearations. The crap from Obama is MSM theatre to try and cover their back publically. You can talk of differences between govt and deep state but it matters nit still the septics aiding and abetting.