The Treasury has, for the duration of the referendum campaign, switched from being a respected economic institution to being a lobbyist for Project Fear. Its notorious apocalypse algorithm looked like a schoolboy spoof, with its subscripts and squiggles “proving” Brexit would cost every household £4,300. (Didn’t the Treasury once prove that EU regulation cost households virtually the same?)In particular, he dismisses Osborne's claim that London house prices would fall by 20%
The Treasury thesis appears to be that the shock of Brexit would make Londoners poorer, interest rates higher and deter immigrants and rich foreigners from buying or renting houses in the capital. Prices would therefore fall. That is certainly plausible. Whether this would be a “shock” scenario for most Londoners is surely moot.
We are now entering a world in which economists simply seek predictions to support prejudices. The Treasury assumes that Brexit would lead to a fall in the pound. But surely that would make houses cheaper for foreigners to buy and push at least some prices back up? Why does Osborne not warn of a Brexit “soaring house price shock”?
These imponderables are clearly too great for any sensible person — but not apparently today’s highly politicised Treasury. The wisest remark perhaps comes from Johnny Morris of the estate agent Countrywide, who says simply: “Brexit would be an unprecedented turn of events, with a wide range of possible outcomes.” That is economist-speak for “no one has a clue”.So, everyone from blokes in the saloon bar to social commentators have worked out that these economic forecasts are Drek. Let's admit we simply don't know what Brexit would bring - but we can cope with it. In any case, the argument for Brexit is not economic but moral; it is cowardly, unpatriotic and immoral to allow British sovereignty to be stolen by a cohort of profoundly anti-democratic and unelected EU officials. This is about Freedom, not geld.