With the June target date for the lifting of visa restrictions for Turkish passport holders looming, a deal looks as far away as it was months ago - unless the EU backs down over its demand that Turkey adopts basic Human Rights standards in its dealings with internal dissent. So far this is looking unlikely, and Turkey remains more fearful of being shackled in its fight against the PKK than of not gaining visa-free access to the EU.
And of course Erdogan is an irresponsible leader, and would actually remove police and coastguard restrictions from the West coast, allowing the mass movement of migrants into Greece to resume. But with both Merkel and the 'open borders' crowd now the subject of democratic disapprobation, Macedonia will get all the help she needs from Europe to keep her border tightly locked - making Greece into a huge, festering, migrant camp at just the time when the country is at greatest risk of defaulting on the financial rescue package.
And neither the Pope or the German parliament are helping by giving high-profile recognition to Turkey's treatment of the Armenians in 1915; just as Japan still refuses to admit the horrors inflicted on the Chinese, the Turks continue to deny the mass slaughter of the Christian Armenians during the Great War. Erdogan also remains sensitive to the exposure of his family's arms-for-oil deal with ISIS / Daesh by Russian intelligence.
Turkey is now at a crossroads. Its sensible, secular, middle-class population have been crowded out by the stubble jawed semi-literates called to the Salafist-funded mosques. Turkey must choose whether she wants to be a civilised Western democracy or degenerate fully into a primitive and savage Islamic state with no redeeming virtues. This year will tell which way she's heading.