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Wednesday, 18 March 2009

Cameron paradox: Gloom is Good

Mike Smithson's take on the latest ICM poll in the Guardian won't make happy reading for David Cameron. Voters continue to be against Labour rather than for the Tories, and an economic upturn that lowers their dissatisfaction with Brown will pull back Labour's votes. Paradoxically, Cameron may take some comfort from the leaked IMF predictions that the UK will be the worst hit by the recession, with recovery delayed until well into 2010. For Tory votes, Gloom is Good.

PB may well be right in the Guardian's ICM poll generally being spot-on, but this doesn't tell half the story. The poll reveals a hunger for change amongst voters, not a hunger for Cameron. Dave remains the least-worst choice for voters, not the best.

I still reckon the June polls will change thinking on the old duopoly and give us all a surprise. And if so, this may start to swing the GE vote predictions.


Budgie said...

Voting intentions for "others" remains low in the polls I have seen. UKIP, or another, would have to sweep the board at the Euro elections for it to make any difference at a GE.

talwin said...

I don't think it really matters that Cameron may be viewed by many as 'least-worst'. Why should the man on the Clapham omnibus love him or think he's a fantastic chap who's the answer to all his prayers so that he votes for him for those reasons? If you think about it it's actually most unlikely. People don't know him: at the end of the day he's just another posh bloke (no posher, mind, than Mandelson, Harman, Miliband and umpteen other members of the Cabinet or PLP) on the telly or in the newspaper.

But the disaster which is New Labour and the general disillusion/disappointment with Brown means, thank God, that Cameron is a shoe-in for next PM.
Never mind Mori or ICM: just ask about. See if you can find someone who says they'll vote Labour at the next general election