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Thursday, 7 January 2010

What a mess!

Oh dear, what a mess! As the comrades are busy reinventing what happened yesterday, let's look at a few basics;

1. There is no Labour MP who is an obvious candidate to succeed Brown in the eyes of the electorate

2. Labour MPs and ministers have all but avoided outright support of Brown whilst condemning the coup attempt - Miliboy's 'I am working closely with PM on foreign policy issues & support the re-election campaign for a Labour Govt that he is leading.' is about the weakest support ever for a PM from a serving senior minister, but Brown isn't going to sack anyone between now and the election.

3. Hoon and Hewitt must have known all along that there was no chance of their letter resulting in a leadership contest

4. The only chance coup plotters have is to secure Mandelson's support in advance; this Hoon and Hewitt signally failed to do. Mandelson realises that Brown must be kept in post until the election to take Labour's kicking; if mass public resentment earths itself in Brown's humiliation, Labour has at least a chance of electing a 'clean' leader

5. If Labour is wiped out everywhere south of the Pennines and becomes a rump party of the NE and NW, they will not elect Miliboy as leader - Crudarse and the 'Compass' faction will head the new, Lite Labour, party - and Mandelson's metrosexual New Labour will die a death.

No, Labour's future is so dependent on the election outcome - and look out for polling in the marginals, rather than just the headline party shares - that the only reason Brown is clinging to power for as long as possible is in the Micawberish hope that 'something will turn up'. There is no other reason for not calling the election right now, that he wants to go down in history as the captain at the helm when the party was forced to go to the country rather than the man who led the party to voluntary suicide.


talwin said...

Para. 3. Wise words, I think, & not an opinion I have seen elsewhere.

hatfield girl said...

Taking down Brown involves taking down Balls and the public sector union Front; I wonder if it's not so much the public cannot see a convincing Brown replacement as the Labour party is now a collapsed alliance of brownite rump, and electable social democracy unable to overcome the personal ambitions of the brownite leaders.

Demetrius said...

He is about to run out of time. It may be that if he is elected all Cameron can do is sweep up the mess.

Budgie said...

Whether Mandleson's machinations work will depend on whether we have some form of debt crisis (downgrade from AAA; or failure to sell Gilts). A debt crisis will topple Brown if it is this side of the election. If not, then Brown will lose at the election anyway (please, please). Balls will go down with Brown - he is as culpable.

Ed P said...

As none of the potential leadership candidates have any courage or vision, and do not understand that most of the electorate loathe them, it's curtains for NuLab anyway.
Put your money on Hoon & Hewitt receiving some "gratitude" from Team Cameron after the election - they've done DC a great service this week.

Gordon the Fence Post Tortoise said...

This woman:
Patsy Hewitt, shudder....

TCH = a common TLA....

A challenge ? a strategy ? cue: manic laughter

Surely, it's an indictment of the miserable calibre of our politicians that they didn't offer any alternative policy options - nada, zip, It's actually nothing more than a half hearted attempt to shove sideways at the trough.

We need some Icelandic politics - big time - it gets results:

coo-eeee we know you're in there

The equivalent would be 200,000 folk stood outside 10 Downing street with flaming torches saying yoo-hoo Gordon! - sort this shit out mate , we're not happy

That I'd pay to see