Sunday, 22 June 2014

Fewer than 1 in 5 believe Cameron

The public's views on Brexit remain mixed. The Yougov poll gives 36 to 44% for those wanting to exit the EU whilst the most recent Observer / Opinium has the figures at 48 to37% - practically reversed. If you average the two you get 42 to 40.5. Which is where I think the reality lies; the answer depends on the slant of the question, and voters may be trying to tell the pollsters something that they're not asking. 

The finding that rings true is that only 18% of voters - fewer than one in five - believe that Cameron can successfully renegotiate the UK's membership rules.

Meanwhile, the drunken Walt Herr Juncker gets a slamming in the Mail for drinking cognac at breakfast; whilst the Mail imagines that this disqualifies him as our next President, surely it's essential for this fool to remain permanently inebriated if he is to continue in his away-with-the-fairies beliefs?


Sackerson said...

What was that quote about Cameron this week - "a riddle without a sphincter," or something.

Juliet46 said...

"a riddle without a sphincter,"

No - that can't be correct. The man IS a complete 4rsehole.

Mike Spilligan said...

Concerning Juncker: I'm a regular visitor to Moscow and about ten years ago, when large, American-style billboards were fairly new there, a whole series of "ads" promoting the EU, each with the smiling (grimacing?) face of Juncker were to be seen at New Year. I asked several acquaintances what they were for - but none knew who he was and most suggested that they were promoting an insurance company and others a subtle way of advertising cigarettes. Money well-spent, then.

cosmic said...

I think it's certain that were he to win the next GE, Cameron would attempt to pull a Wilson, selling nothing as significant concessions. No treaty change or fundamental changes to the EU of course.

Most of Westminster and the media would be pushing for an in vote, as would the BBC, industry bodies and most of the press.

I'd say there's a stink chance an in vote, based on bogus reforms, could be pulled off, just like 1975.

Budgie said...

"... only 18% of voters - fewer than one in five - believe that Cameron can successfully renegotiate the UK's membership rules ..."

Well that depends on what you mean by "successfully".

I used to think that any British renegotiation of the UK's terms of membership of the EU was doomed to failure since a treaty change would be necessary and at least some of the other members would not accept it.

Having witnessed the EU elite re-write their own rulebook on the fly to save the Euro, I now believe it is perfectly possible for Cameron to be given significant concessions (effectively a semi-detached membership in all but name).

The EU elite will firstly ignore their own rules (they do not think like English rulers who largely stick to the law); secondarily they make a shrewd judgement as to how much will swing a Cameronian UK referendum their way. This assumes of course that they still want the UK "in". I think they still do, despite regarding us as nuisances. The loss of face due to a Brexit would damage the project beyond repair, and that is something above all that that they will not tolerate.

So, if Cameron stays in power (a big if), he will get his (real) concessions, and he will win his vote. And we will be locked in until doomsday.

G. Tingey said...

Britain's net large contribution to the EU's coffers makes sure that they would much rather put up with us - they lurve our money .....

Weekend Yachtsman said...

Budgie makes an interesting point, but I don't think the EU panjandrums will ignore their own rules just to get Cameron off a hook of his own making.

Saving the world (as they see it) by ensuring the survival of the Euro was somewhat of a different case.

I don't believe any meaningful changes will be offered - but Cameron will claim they have been, and he will win his bogus referendum with the help of the State broadcaster and the legacy media. Most people, after all, don't really care as long as the bread and circuses continue - which they will.

But despair is a sin.