Cookie Notice

However, this blog is a US service and this site uses cookies from Google to deliver its services and analyze traffic. Your IP address and user-agent are shared with Google along with performance and security metrics to ensure quality of service, generate usage statistics, and to detect and address abuse.

Saturday, 14 June 2014

If you want to know the future, look to the past

Seeing the map on the BBC website of the ISIS advances in Iraq, something looked alarmingly familiar. A bit of rooting about amongst the many maps of the protestant / catholic campaigns of the 30 years war quickly produced something very similar;

It's all about lines of communication and whether these pass through friendly or hostile land. History suggests that ISIS will not be successful in the area south of Baghdad as they lack the military clout needed to pacify and hold this hostile territory - but that the converse is also true for any Shia forces seeking to re-take land to the north.


Anonymous said...

Read a book 'Tribes with Flags' by Charles Glass, published about 20 years ago, he shows a complete understanding of the Middle East.

john in cheshire said...

If we had named islam as the enemy, 50 years ago, none of the pain and hardship would have ensued. But because the 'elite' can't bring themselves to name the enemy, I suspect we'll have many more years of death and destruction both at home and abroad.