Why Ukraine, or the US, did not explicitly issue warnings via ICAO or IATA is subject to speculation. The US would have wanted to protect the extent of its intelligence, Ukraine would have wanted to preserve the desperately needed millions from overflight fees. Both maintained the public fiction that the only threat was from MANPADS, ineffective at higher altitudes. It's even possible that there may have been those in Ukraine who considered such an event as MH17 as politically advantageous, or that the US found the commercial air corridor a useful cover for its own intelligence-gathering overflights. This will all come out in the wash over the next ten years or so.
It's the reactions to the incident that may cause changes unwelcome to the key actors;
- Russia will quietly disown the separatist militias and weapons and munitions supply will end. Their behaviour and lack of disciplined control around the crash site has condemned them.
- Sanctions will hit Eurozone industry hard, as Der Spiegel reports. Asia and Australasia will benefit.
- Eurozone banks, already weak as eggshells, may fall - many are massively exposed to Russian loans, which may default and cause crashes, making Hypo Alpine Adria look like an overdraft breach.
- Western governments need to leave a door open for Putin - and this is likely to be pressure for a settlement involving limited autonomy for parts of Eastern Ukraine and the protection of the Russian language there. Cameron included the option in his speech, as Angus Roxburgh reports in the Guardian.
- Arseniy Yatsenyuk, the chap who looks like a Jewish paedophile, acting as Ukraine PM, who is bitterly opposed to preserving Russian identity and together with his negative TV image is likely to be the replaceable element, dumped by the Oligarchs.
- With Autumn on the way, Putin will cut-off the gas to Ukraine to secure concessions for the Russian minority, and the EU will decline to make up the difference.