Monday, 27 July 2015

Islamic civil war pulls in NATO member

The same incredible policy stupidity that turned Libya from a prosperous employer of African migrants to a bankrupt staging post for illegal migrants to the EU, run largely by ISIS, has just pulled Turkey into the Islamic civil war. Turkey is of course a NATO member. The map below shows the extent of the Kurdish minority, with whom the Ankara government has just gone to war. The Kurds are the main military opponents of ISIS in Syria. And among the Turkish speakers in the green areas are over a million Sh'ia. 

A political and military collapse in Turkey will open a migrant highway straight into the heart of Europe; Greece will be abandoned (as the Germans truly want) and Europe's new boundary will be a fence running from Hungary to Slovenia to Trieste.


Mike Spilligan said...

Excellent posting - I hope our worse than useless FCO reads you!
We always knew "it will be something silly in the Balkans" as the man said - but the more one looks at it the less there seems to be a solution. The EU's leaders won't want to lose a square centimetre of territory however rational that might be; remembering too that they also want(at USA request) to expand into Ukraine.
Then there are the international guarantees for rights of passage (commercial and military) for the Dardanelles and the Bosporus - mostly of interest to Russia, but with the USA (possibly unspoken) demanding a counterbalance.
Your last sentence suggests abandoning not only Greece but also those permanent thorns in the sides, Bulgaria and Romania as well as their neighbouring "rats and mice".

James Higham said...

Combine that with the silk road to Esdralon and there are certainly moves afoot.

Nick Drew said...

if we let Turkey go I don't see what faith the Baltics would have in NATO

Visc said...

Erdogan is a corrupt little scrote with aa light Islamist patina.
The idea to go to war against the Kurds is simply their strategic interests of not really caring much about ISIS - they always wanted Assad out and the Iranians put back in their Shia box. Their "Attacks" on ISIS have been cursory and seem to be to show willing than an actual full on opposition. As to ISIS they havent actually attacked a NATO memeber and we have in effect been supplying them weapons for the last 2 years - so why the outrage now.

NATO really shouldnt intervene against the Kurds. It's high time that they carved out their own state since the numpty Americans (with our help) broke Iraq. And then we broke Libya. Of course Ghaddafi and Hussein were eveil werent they? (Strangely enough both were on record as promoting alternatives to the dollar.)

Interesting counterfactual would the Greeks if strong still have ambitions on Constantinople or did the '22 rip their culturel heart out?

@Nick Drew: we shouldnt really care about the Baltics psychopathic Russian baiters, - small man syndrome embodied in country form.

Cuffleyburgers said...

Turkey is a very sad case. A great country which has got its knickers in a twist big time regarding the Kurds.

Now at risk of nullifying Ataturk's precious legacy of a quasi westernised secular free and relatively rich country.

oldrightie said...

One powerful national leader appears to get his foreign and domestic policies balanced. That insomuch as he places his Country first and foremost. Go Vlad!

The West continues with it's blind stupidity that everyone opposed to corporate greed for global dominance are to be vilified and attacked. Crass, US mongrel attitudes infecting the EUSSR morons.

As for Libya and the removal of Gaddafi, how great was that, Mr Camoron?

Mike Spilligan said...

@Visc: A nice turn of phrase about the Baltics, but I wonder why we respond when they have one of their fits of edginess? Could it be that we look big to them by sending 2 aircraft - followed by dramatic headlines?

Gordon the Fence Post Tortoise said...

If the present Turkish establishment persist in ineptly fomenting trouble with the Kurds then secession / civil war is on the cards - historically at that end of Asia Minor (East of the Trabazon - Adana line) - that ends up with an emergent strongman who's managed to marshal the most effective fighting force - it's happened more than once before.

This could get very messy indeed...

What would Ataturk have done? (I know what Baybars did)

G. Tingey said...

Sad to say, but spot on.
It is to be hoped that Erdogan is firmly told "No help or assistance AT ALL unless you leave the Kurds alone."

The difference is, of course that the Kurds have a negotiable, political aim, whereas Da'esh are religious loonies with whom no accommodation is possible

visc said...

If these links are true, the magnitude of "ISIS" vs PKK attacks shows the attack against "ISIS" was a fig leaf, to allow the US/NATO t prented they arent complete fuck wits and that Turkey is not acting in out interests..but that begs teh question has NATO been for the last 10 years?

"The attack on IS was a single sortie against limited targets and closer to the Turkish border, while the one against the PKK was much different. The air force dispatched 75 F-16s and F-4E 2020s in three waves during July 24-26. Some 300 smart bombs were dropped in 185 sorties against approximately 400 PKK targets"