The Wuhan virus will not only change the world, it is set to provide evidence for scholars of social and economic theories for the next century. How many times have you heard economists say in the past "Haha yes it's only theoretical - we can't know for sure unless we experiment on an entire national economy"? Well, now we can. One of the glories of the diversity of national responses across the world is that they range across the entire spectrum.
At one end we have the big State authoritarianism of China and North Korea - curfew breakers shot, an iron fist of State control, people walled up in their dwellings, total command of the economy and no role for private enterprise in solving the crisis. At the other end we have the US, a nation whose collective mistrust of the State and federal structure together with a loosely regulated economy and patchy coverage of the healthcare system has meant a massive and immediate economic impact - and to Trump's chagrin, he doesn't have the power to control the Covid measures. Under the US constitution, public health measures are the responsibility of state governors. The federal government has issued 'guidelines' but they're not compulsory. Then we have Sweden, now far less certain about its laissez-faire approach to the virus as the bodies pile up. And between the extremes we have the mass of middling-State nations, including most of Europe.
Comparisons are not just body counts, of course. Economies will have various degrees of resilience, flexibility, responsiveness, survivability and agility, different patterns of trade, different mixes of manufacturing and services, differing resource supply patterns and the impact of the recession and recovery from it will also depend on the same social and economic systems.
And then of course there's demography. Young nations with educated, mobile, deployable workforces and low proportions of unproductive olders to be cared for as fragile and vulnerable porcelain, against those with less capable workforces, older populations, lower educational and trade knowledge infrastructures.
So which nations will win out? Which countries are the future? Where will the young be best placed to create a stable, secure and prosperous future for themselves and their families? Will it be authoritarian China or chaotic America?
Friday, 17 April 2020
Thursday, 16 April 2020
Predictable and unpredictable
Just as the EU's manifold and abysmal failures to co-ordinate the 27 nations of the EU during the Wuhan virus crisis are becoming clear to all, the cabal of technocrats continues to act entirely to form. They are dealing with Covid-19 as they deal with everything else - slowly. Agile the EU is not. So it's creep, crawl, a little bit of consensus, iron over the immovable barrier, and a bit more creep and crawl. Sadly, the Wuhan virus moves a lot faster then the EU, and by the time they reach an agreement, the nations of the world will already have found a solution. And of course, as the crumbling behemoth is facing an existential crisis, some official pops up to warn the UK, in relation to the Brexit trade talks, that at this difficult time we must not be irresponsible by refusing to accept the wonderful partnership agreement that the EU has crafted. All this madness from the EU is entirely predictable.
Likewise the slurry of health fascism embodied in that failed and unfit for purpose pressure group, Public Health England. This is the organisation that counts its biggest health policy triumph as banning smoking on hospital grounds, whilst conveniently ignoring levels of multi-drug resistant TB in London greater than in Iraq, Afghanistan, Sudan and Ethiopia. PHE has not only failed in every respect to prepare for a novel pandemic, it has failed to co-ordinate measures to combat the old ones; our crowded cities are as vulnerable to Cholera, Dysentry, Typhus and parasitic diseases as they were in mid-Victorian times. Now they are actually obstructing efforts to fund a way out of the virus stasis. But it seems that for the most important departments in PHE - those charged with campaigning against alcohol, sugar and fried chicken - it's business as usual. A prize for the first reader to spot the PHE advice warning that drinking alcohol at home during the Wuhan virus crisis should be banned. Again, entirely predictable.
D-list celebrities are finding it hard to break through the new hard mood of national purpose. Several have made efforts to use the crisis for self publicity only to be slapped down with great force by social media (I knew it would be useful some day ..). Even Meghan Markle, who must be throwing tantrums of frustration at her lack of column inches, has become transparent. Her latest wheeze, spending an hour handing out sandwiches in an LA homeless shelter, then having her people 'leak' the story of her 'secret' charity work, has fallen as flat as a damp chapati. Give your money to the NHS, sweetie - it's the only thing that works, as the Duke of Westminster (£12.5m) and Ed Sheeran (£1m) are finding. And Capt. Tom Moore has raised £12m from the little people. All entirely predictable.
Rod Liddle, always a ray of sunlight in the gloom, penned a thoughful piece on the importance of cigarettes during the crisis for the Speccie. He even joked
It is even just about possible that the precise opposite is true, and that smoking conveys a degree of protection against Covid-19, much as it does against Parkinson’s disease, ulcerative colitis, endometrial cancer and possibly skin cancer and thyroid cancer. Though I wouldn’t bet on it.Well, it may not be such a joke. It seems that ACE2, the protein to which the SARS-CoV-2 virus sticks in the upper respiratory tract in a fresh infection, in impacted by nicotine in a way that enhances resistance to the virus. The evidence is not in the bag as yet, but initial anecdotal evidence about the low incidence of Covid-19 amongst smokers is now being thoroughly tested - and you can bet that the tobacco giants are putting their hands in their pockets to help fund it. Now if it turns out that shares in BAT, Philip Morris, Imperial and Altria are as much marked as winners as Glaxo, that truly would be unpredictable. And if vaping nicotine in offices and public places became an accepted prophylactic against the Wuhan virus, prescribed and funded by the NHS, the increase in apoplexy amongst the nation's health fascists would be a small price to pay.
Wednesday, 15 April 2020
The curve
When, a couple of weeks ago, the death figures for w/e 20th March came out, I commented that we'd have to wait until the first week or so in May, given the 11 day delay, to see whether the lockdown had reduced the R0 of the virus to below 1. Yesterday's figures, to 3rd April, show an overall increase of some 6,000 deaths a week. So far, I still hold with my early take on the roll-out. The 10th April figures, out on the 21st, will give us the curve. My guess, and it's no more than that, it that we could be 15,000 deaths a week above average. So far I knew personally only one victim of the Wuhan virus, who died last week. I suspect some of you will be in the same position.
The government is doing what anyone piloting a boat in grunty weather does, balancing course and speed over ground with the effects of wind, waves and tide. To avoid going beam-on in dangerous seas you may have to go in a direction for a while you don't want. Or in really grunty weather, get into deep water and ride it out. The government is balancing excess deaths against both their ability to maintain public order and keep the economy from tanking by more than 20% of GDP.
You'll find various bloggers and tweeters around the manor all claiming to know exactly what the answer is. Well, if they were really that clever, someone in authority would have noticed by now, I reckon. So like most folk of the Realm, I put my trust in the government's response, knowing it to be flawed and imperfect, but nonetheless better than any alternative. I don't know the answer, you see, and don't condemn anyone else's opinion because like the lucky sod picking the winner in a sweepstake they may be right. Or they may have picked the munter that falls at the first fence. We need the evidence - the curve - to validate future plans.
However, the realisation across the world is that herd immunity is the only outcome that will allow us to rescue what we can of the world we had at the end of 2019, and that means getting some 60% of the population infected, starting with those most likely to survive. That means allowing the R0 of the Wuhan virus to rise above 1. That's why Denmark, Germany and others are planning to re-open schools and universities and manage a return to a simulacrum of normal life. Albeit one in which facemasks will be the norm for some time to come. Whilst continuing to protect those at most risk.
And that's the next hurdle. There seems to be a consensus about opening schools early in May, but hundreds of millions of facemasks will be needed, and indications are that supplies are not due to come on-stream until July and August. If the MSM knew their arse from their elbow, instead of destroying their own cred by trying to ambush the government, that's the sort of question they should be asking.
The government is doing what anyone piloting a boat in grunty weather does, balancing course and speed over ground with the effects of wind, waves and tide. To avoid going beam-on in dangerous seas you may have to go in a direction for a while you don't want. Or in really grunty weather, get into deep water and ride it out. The government is balancing excess deaths against both their ability to maintain public order and keep the economy from tanking by more than 20% of GDP.
You'll find various bloggers and tweeters around the manor all claiming to know exactly what the answer is. Well, if they were really that clever, someone in authority would have noticed by now, I reckon. So like most folk of the Realm, I put my trust in the government's response, knowing it to be flawed and imperfect, but nonetheless better than any alternative. I don't know the answer, you see, and don't condemn anyone else's opinion because like the lucky sod picking the winner in a sweepstake they may be right. Or they may have picked the munter that falls at the first fence. We need the evidence - the curve - to validate future plans.
However, the realisation across the world is that herd immunity is the only outcome that will allow us to rescue what we can of the world we had at the end of 2019, and that means getting some 60% of the population infected, starting with those most likely to survive. That means allowing the R0 of the Wuhan virus to rise above 1. That's why Denmark, Germany and others are planning to re-open schools and universities and manage a return to a simulacrum of normal life. Albeit one in which facemasks will be the norm for some time to come. Whilst continuing to protect those at most risk.
And that's the next hurdle. There seems to be a consensus about opening schools early in May, but hundreds of millions of facemasks will be needed, and indications are that supplies are not due to come on-stream until July and August. If the MSM knew their arse from their elbow, instead of destroying their own cred by trying to ambush the government, that's the sort of question they should be asking.
 |
| The Telegraph reports the spike in deaths |
Tuesday, 14 April 2020
Boris's trickiest manoeuvre
With the news that Boris is out and convalescing I'm sure we all breathed a huge sigh of relief. The latest polls give us a lead of more than 20% over Labour, and Kryten is spending his first week in the new job dealing with a schism in the party so deep it may split it altogether. The leaked report details the deep disloyalty to Magic Grandpa from the senior ranks of Labour officials, and the comrades have now convinced themselves that they could have won Disaster May's vanity election in 1917 2017 had the Mensheviks and Agrarians Blairites and Fabians united behind the Bolsheviks Momentum.
Kryten's troubles and Parliament's holiday are giving Boris's ministers an easy ride. And some of them are not doing so well. I suspect many are unable to manage their civil servants, and those unmanageable civil servants are seeking as much to cover-up and rationalise their past blunders as to solve current problems. It may be uncomfortable for ministers to face a grilling either in the House or in select committee, but it produces a better result for us all. The minister is really just the medium through which our scrutiny of the civil service passes, and the opposition are acting as our scrutators. So yes, Parliament resuming its effectiveness in a week's time is in all our interests.
Boris's dilemma is his gross personal popularity, behind which both his ministers and their civil servants will seek to hide. He must now manage the trickiest manoeuvre - leading a collective cabinet whilst leaving individual ministers sufficient distance to answer for their own performance. One or two may have to be swapped-out pour encourager les autres. A couple of weeks convalescence leaving Dominic Raab at the despatch box (he's sound and secure in his job and can take the knocks - and is loyal to Boris) is not a bad thing.
We can only hope that the comrades manage to focus. The party is not exactly short of lawyers, and signs over the weekend are that they are getting ready to sue the arse off eachother over either (a) their anti-Corbyn comments having been leaked or (b) their having sabotaged Corbyn's leadership. sadly, their antics may prove more diverting than the real business in Parliament. However, we have the BBC and MSM to help ensure that coverage of Labour's infighting is minimised whilst fighting their own partisan media war of attrition against the government.
Kryten's troubles and Parliament's holiday are giving Boris's ministers an easy ride. And some of them are not doing so well. I suspect many are unable to manage their civil servants, and those unmanageable civil servants are seeking as much to cover-up and rationalise their past blunders as to solve current problems. It may be uncomfortable for ministers to face a grilling either in the House or in select committee, but it produces a better result for us all. The minister is really just the medium through which our scrutiny of the civil service passes, and the opposition are acting as our scrutators. So yes, Parliament resuming its effectiveness in a week's time is in all our interests.
Boris's dilemma is his gross personal popularity, behind which both his ministers and their civil servants will seek to hide. He must now manage the trickiest manoeuvre - leading a collective cabinet whilst leaving individual ministers sufficient distance to answer for their own performance. One or two may have to be swapped-out pour encourager les autres. A couple of weeks convalescence leaving Dominic Raab at the despatch box (he's sound and secure in his job and can take the knocks - and is loyal to Boris) is not a bad thing.
We can only hope that the comrades manage to focus. The party is not exactly short of lawyers, and signs over the weekend are that they are getting ready to sue the arse off eachother over either (a) their anti-Corbyn comments having been leaked or (b) their having sabotaged Corbyn's leadership. sadly, their antics may prove more diverting than the real business in Parliament. However, we have the BBC and MSM to help ensure that coverage of Labour's infighting is minimised whilst fighting their own partisan media war of attrition against the government.
 |
| Labour's leaked report will give some chortles over the breakfast table |
Monday, 13 April 2020
Food, farming and nitrile gloves
Supply chains, maritime trade, nearshoring and onshoring manufacturing from China and the far East, diversification (HT Mr Drew and C@W) and such things are part of the national dialogue for the first time in a generation. Possibly since Suez. And there are any number of Who Knew? realities being revealed. I'm learning, even from Twitter. @Uncle_Albert_ posted a thread pertinent to the PPE debate asking us to remember that latex and nitrile both come mostly from Malaysian rubber (Albert claims) and that as trees take several years to grow, the current global demand for gloves may easily outstrip all possible production.
Of course it may be that if we don't buy tyres because no-one is going anywhere, there will be more rubber for gloves, but it won't be anytime soon. And even if we push to the head of the 'Top Glove' (the world's largest single manufacturer of latex gloves, he says) queue and buy a batch FOB port, you may still have great trouble getting it because of the shortage of ships and containers, many also locked down in port. Ha, OK, so you'll fly them in - except much of the previous commercial freight capacity was in the bellies of passenger aircraft, mostly also now grounded.
And then there's food.
Back in the days, I kept half a dozen hens running in a little six-tree orchard at the back of my little cottage in Needham Market. I supplemented their foraging with frost-damaged spuds bought by the sack and similar, and with Pauls and Whites layers' mash (cue Edward Spalton). The only problem was, it not only stank of fish but made the eggs taste of fish. Some time later, I think the feed manufacturers reduced fishmeal in their mixes and increased grain, corn and suchlike. Back then we were such destructive bastards that we would hoover up fish from the sea just to crush the entire catch for animal feed. Now every fish counts - and we will need every square nautical mile of our exclusive economic zone from the end of the year.
Not only do we only produce half the food we eat, but much of it is the wrong food, according to Tim Lang. The reviews of his 'Feeding Britain' in both the Telegraph and in the Guardian are instructive. Firstly, we're eating far too much Ultra Processed Food, he says - fruit loops, biscuits and chicken nuggets - and it's killing our guts (cue Stephen J) and making us obese, diabetic and natural Wuhan virus victims. Half the UK diet is UPF. It may seem cheap at the supermarket, but the true cost must include the increased health care costs of eating harmful crap that makes us fat. And then we're growing the rest the wrong way.
Instead of growing maize and cereals to feed livestock for meat, we should use that acreage to grow fruit and veg instead, and put animals out to grass. We could up our self-sufficiency in food from 50% to 80% if we do it right. And farmers and fishermen must get much more of the price we pay for our food - "Currently primary producers do most of the work but are only left with 8 per cent of the Gross Value Added from food"
And to be frank, gaining a diet rich in fish, seafood, grass-fed beef, seasonal greenstuffs and natural butter and cheese and losing one packed with fruit loops, reconstituted chicken, carcass slurry burgers, chemicals, palm oil, fillers and preservatives is, in my opinion, no bad thing.
Of course it may be that if we don't buy tyres because no-one is going anywhere, there will be more rubber for gloves, but it won't be anytime soon. And even if we push to the head of the 'Top Glove' (the world's largest single manufacturer of latex gloves, he says) queue and buy a batch FOB port, you may still have great trouble getting it because of the shortage of ships and containers, many also locked down in port. Ha, OK, so you'll fly them in - except much of the previous commercial freight capacity was in the bellies of passenger aircraft, mostly also now grounded.
And then there's food.
Back in the days, I kept half a dozen hens running in a little six-tree orchard at the back of my little cottage in Needham Market. I supplemented their foraging with frost-damaged spuds bought by the sack and similar, and with Pauls and Whites layers' mash (cue Edward Spalton). The only problem was, it not only stank of fish but made the eggs taste of fish. Some time later, I think the feed manufacturers reduced fishmeal in their mixes and increased grain, corn and suchlike. Back then we were such destructive bastards that we would hoover up fish from the sea just to crush the entire catch for animal feed. Now every fish counts - and we will need every square nautical mile of our exclusive economic zone from the end of the year.
Not only do we only produce half the food we eat, but much of it is the wrong food, according to Tim Lang. The reviews of his 'Feeding Britain' in both the Telegraph and in the Guardian are instructive. Firstly, we're eating far too much Ultra Processed Food, he says - fruit loops, biscuits and chicken nuggets - and it's killing our guts (cue Stephen J) and making us obese, diabetic and natural Wuhan virus victims. Half the UK diet is UPF. It may seem cheap at the supermarket, but the true cost must include the increased health care costs of eating harmful crap that makes us fat. And then we're growing the rest the wrong way.
Instead of growing maize and cereals to feed livestock for meat, we should use that acreage to grow fruit and veg instead, and put animals out to grass. We could up our self-sufficiency in food from 50% to 80% if we do it right. And farmers and fishermen must get much more of the price we pay for our food - "Currently primary producers do most of the work but are only left with 8 per cent of the Gross Value Added from food"
And to be frank, gaining a diet rich in fish, seafood, grass-fed beef, seasonal greenstuffs and natural butter and cheese and losing one packed with fruit loops, reconstituted chicken, carcass slurry burgers, chemicals, palm oil, fillers and preservatives is, in my opinion, no bad thing.
Saturday, 11 April 2020
Some things are not easy to say
I've always hated waste. Not just cost, or carelessness, but the idea of waste. I never accepted that 10% of bricks or roof tiles would be broken by handling, or 15% of plasterboard deliveries would be wasted. I always challenged such assumptions - and when I became a CEEQUAL assessor, would try to gently nudge jobs I was assessing not to drop points by careless waste. It didn't even have to be related to value; I once watched a worker assisting in the application of a skin-irritating substance needlessly change pair after pair of latex gloves. It was just deliberately throwing away someone else's money - out of irritation at being employed, being instructed, being constrained. Even an office worker who throws a new biro slow to start writing in the bin before giving it a chance is in part just kicking his boss, his firm and his office. If he was at home, if they were his own gloves or his own biros he wouldn't do it.
So I can understand Matt Hancock's difficulty yesterday in urging health and care workers not to cream through the nation's stocks of PPE quite so vigorously. It's OK to wear the same mask to see two patients in a row; you don't need to change plastic aprons every 15 minutes - well, I guess that's what he wanted to say but couldn't really say it. Can you imagine the press fury at asking NHS workers who are losing their lives to cut back on 10p latex gloves?
We need to remember that just as not all soldiers are gallant, not all health workers are selfless. Many will be feeling pissed off at their well-paid indoors job with no heavy lifting suddenly turning lethal, with no hiding place at home because the bloody neighbours are all standing in their drives clapping every morning at going-to-work time. What makes the workforce as a whole exceptional is that 85% do turn up each day, and care diligently and conscientiously for our sick and dying.
So some PPE will be wasted out of genuine fear and ignorance - this is a training matter. Some will be wasted (a very small proportion, I'd guess) by those wanting to run out of PPE to make a political point - this is a disciplinary matter. But some I'd think will be wasted because wasting a mask, gloves, gown or apron is about the only gesture open to workers working under the most stressful of conditions, with the nation's gaze upon them. I think we must just accept this as a small price to pay.
So I can understand Matt Hancock's difficulty yesterday in urging health and care workers not to cream through the nation's stocks of PPE quite so vigorously. It's OK to wear the same mask to see two patients in a row; you don't need to change plastic aprons every 15 minutes - well, I guess that's what he wanted to say but couldn't really say it. Can you imagine the press fury at asking NHS workers who are losing their lives to cut back on 10p latex gloves?
We need to remember that just as not all soldiers are gallant, not all health workers are selfless. Many will be feeling pissed off at their well-paid indoors job with no heavy lifting suddenly turning lethal, with no hiding place at home because the bloody neighbours are all standing in their drives clapping every morning at going-to-work time. What makes the workforce as a whole exceptional is that 85% do turn up each day, and care diligently and conscientiously for our sick and dying.
So some PPE will be wasted out of genuine fear and ignorance - this is a training matter. Some will be wasted (a very small proportion, I'd guess) by those wanting to run out of PPE to make a political point - this is a disciplinary matter. But some I'd think will be wasted because wasting a mask, gloves, gown or apron is about the only gesture open to workers working under the most stressful of conditions, with the nation's gaze upon them. I think we must just accept this as a small price to pay.
Friday, 10 April 2020
The media have failed - and the public know it
There are three malign motives driving many of the mainstream media in the UK. First is Brexit - which many London journalists have great difficulty in understanding has happened. "Do you think this is a good time to be leaving the European Union?" asked one gigantic numpty of Rishi Sunak at the daily Number 10 press conference; "We have left" replied Mr Sunak. Bitterness over having failed to reverse democracy pervades the newsrooms of the BBC, Channel 4 and Sky and has coloured their coverage of the Wuhan virus.
Second is their left-wing bias. Hence the suggestion that no one has ever made outside the febrile minds of journalists that Mr Johnson should share power with assorted failures and has-beens, mostly of the left but including a Remainer or two to frustrate our EU trade negotiations. Yeah sure. We have a majority of 81. Good reason to let Tony Blair and John Major join the cabinet.
Thirdly is their hatred and envy of Boris himself. Emily Maitlis made her own dislike of the PM very clear in June of last year, when she chaired (appallingly) that ridiculous TV debate with Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and a jejune attention-seeking Rory Stewart, all perched on uncomfortable bar stools while Emily launched dig after dig at Boris.
Fortunately, they're stupid enough to imagine that using their privileged airtime to slag-off the PM, our government and the nation's response will rouse public anger against the government. Well, cretins, it's had exactly the opposite effect. Our little media heroes have been stunned at the ferocious reaction against them on social media. Peston, Kuenssberg, Maitlis, Boulton, Newman, Burley, Morgan and the Snows hardly dare venture onto Twitter these days - they're immediately destroyed by an enraged public. And this at a time when newspapers are facing severe challenges from loss of physical sales and online advertising, as is Channel 4, and the BBC is facing an imminent decriminalisation of the TV tax. Yep morons. You're facing nemesis.
The final straw is their failure to ask serious questions of China of the sort that Niall Ferguson asks in the Boston Globe - serious and searching questions on the origin of the Wuhan virus, the cover ups, the conspiracy and the disguising of the truth. Peston's stupidity, Kuenssberg's malice, Matlis's meretriciousness and all the rest trying to find gaps through which to shove needles at Boris whilst giving the PRC a free pass have not been missed by the public.
All of which is reflected in the latest popularity poll from JL polling for Times Red Box (9/4); China may be down -45%, but the media is close behind at -29%.
Update
=====
The Boston Globe comes up fine for me, but for anyone missing the linked piece, Ferguson's questions are
Second is their left-wing bias. Hence the suggestion that no one has ever made outside the febrile minds of journalists that Mr Johnson should share power with assorted failures and has-beens, mostly of the left but including a Remainer or two to frustrate our EU trade negotiations. Yeah sure. We have a majority of 81. Good reason to let Tony Blair and John Major join the cabinet.
Thirdly is their hatred and envy of Boris himself. Emily Maitlis made her own dislike of the PM very clear in June of last year, when she chaired (appallingly) that ridiculous TV debate with Sajid Javid, Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and a jejune attention-seeking Rory Stewart, all perched on uncomfortable bar stools while Emily launched dig after dig at Boris.
Fortunately, they're stupid enough to imagine that using their privileged airtime to slag-off the PM, our government and the nation's response will rouse public anger against the government. Well, cretins, it's had exactly the opposite effect. Our little media heroes have been stunned at the ferocious reaction against them on social media. Peston, Kuenssberg, Maitlis, Boulton, Newman, Burley, Morgan and the Snows hardly dare venture onto Twitter these days - they're immediately destroyed by an enraged public. And this at a time when newspapers are facing severe challenges from loss of physical sales and online advertising, as is Channel 4, and the BBC is facing an imminent decriminalisation of the TV tax. Yep morons. You're facing nemesis.
The final straw is their failure to ask serious questions of China of the sort that Niall Ferguson asks in the Boston Globe - serious and searching questions on the origin of the Wuhan virus, the cover ups, the conspiracy and the disguising of the truth. Peston's stupidity, Kuenssberg's malice, Matlis's meretriciousness and all the rest trying to find gaps through which to shove needles at Boris whilst giving the PRC a free pass have not been missed by the public.
All of which is reflected in the latest popularity poll from JL polling for Times Red Box (9/4); China may be down -45%, but the media is close behind at -29%.
=====
The Boston Globe comes up fine for me, but for anyone missing the linked piece, Ferguson's questions are
First, what exactly was going on in Wuhan that led to the initial emergence of SARS-CoV-2? If, as first claimed but now seems unlikely, the virus originated from a bat at one of the disgusting “wet” markets (for wildlife intended for human consumption), which your regime inexplicably has not shut down, that would have been bad enough. But if it originated because of sloppy practices at the Wuhan branch of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, that is worse. It is insanity for research on potentially lethal zoonoses such as coronaviruses to be going on in the heart of a vast metropolis like Wuhan.
Second, how big a role did the central government play in the cover-up after it became clear in Wuhan that there was human-to-human transmission?
Third, after it became clear that there was a full-blown epidemic spreading from Wuhan to the rest of Hubei province, why did you cut off travel from Hubei to the rest of China — on Jan. 23 — but not from Hubei to the rest of the world?
Fourth, what possessed your Foreign Ministry spokesman to start peddling an obviously false conspiracy theory on social media and why has he not been fired?
Fifth, where exactly are Ren Zhiqiang and Ai Fen, to name just two of the Chinese citizens who seem to have vanished since they expressed criticism of your government’s handling of COVID-19?
Finally, how many of your people has this disease really killed?
Thursday, 9 April 2020
The joys of snuff
With that title, I expect for some time we'll get disappointed google searchers hitting this page; internet users are a weird lot. An old post about taxpayer-funded elective cosmetic surgery entitled "Poor women with large tattooed breasts" consistently scored the highest hits ranking of any page on the blog. So to clarify for any puzzled visitors, this post is about powdered cured tobacco.
I took a complete break from smoking about seven or eight years ago and have never craved one since. Physically. Not smoking takes no effort at all, but Oh how I regret having foregone the pleasure of smoking; I loved smoking. Really enjoyed it. If I live to 75, I'm going to start again. Before the smoking ban here this year, I loved to spend an hour or two in the local Gasthaus just for the smell of the dense clouds of cigarette smoke around the bar, a delicious fragrancing of my clothes that I would sniff nostalgically for the rest of the day. Well, Nicotine has been a good friend to me since I was 15, with me at all the big moments in life. So when I took a break from fags, I switched to snuff. Made in an old English snuff mill, a Northern one, that cures and grinds Virginia tobacco.
It's not some eccentricity for public showing-away but a connection with a lifelong physiological partnership. The Nicotine is just a fraction of that from smoking, the dopamine effect imperceptible but the connection remains. With the benefit that one can take snuff when seated on an aircraft, at a restaurant table, in a bar. It confuses the bansturbators - nobody has told them to ban snuff. And sales are so inconsequential that HM Treasury can hardly be bothered to tax it - a 25g tin costs about £2.80 and lasts about a month.
There's only one drawback. As a seasoned snuffer, my sneeze reaction is pretty well under control; one intakes snuff like sniffing a flower, not snorting coke. One of my few pleasures in life is agreeing to let coke-heads take a pinch; inevitably they suck it straight into the upper septum where it takes about a second before leaving them in tear-streaming agony, puce-faced and contorted with pain. But sometimes - when out walking, when in the supermarket - the residual snuff induces a sneeze. No problem, as I always have a snuff-kerchief to hand.
But boy. The looks of fear and horror from anyone within ten metres. A couple of times I've done that little pantomimey thing of shaking the head and waving the hand 'no', though I don't think they were convinced.
I took a complete break from smoking about seven or eight years ago and have never craved one since. Physically. Not smoking takes no effort at all, but Oh how I regret having foregone the pleasure of smoking; I loved smoking. Really enjoyed it. If I live to 75, I'm going to start again. Before the smoking ban here this year, I loved to spend an hour or two in the local Gasthaus just for the smell of the dense clouds of cigarette smoke around the bar, a delicious fragrancing of my clothes that I would sniff nostalgically for the rest of the day. Well, Nicotine has been a good friend to me since I was 15, with me at all the big moments in life. So when I took a break from fags, I switched to snuff. Made in an old English snuff mill, a Northern one, that cures and grinds Virginia tobacco.
It's not some eccentricity for public showing-away but a connection with a lifelong physiological partnership. The Nicotine is just a fraction of that from smoking, the dopamine effect imperceptible but the connection remains. With the benefit that one can take snuff when seated on an aircraft, at a restaurant table, in a bar. It confuses the bansturbators - nobody has told them to ban snuff. And sales are so inconsequential that HM Treasury can hardly be bothered to tax it - a 25g tin costs about £2.80 and lasts about a month.
There's only one drawback. As a seasoned snuffer, my sneeze reaction is pretty well under control; one intakes snuff like sniffing a flower, not snorting coke. One of my few pleasures in life is agreeing to let coke-heads take a pinch; inevitably they suck it straight into the upper septum where it takes about a second before leaving them in tear-streaming agony, puce-faced and contorted with pain. But sometimes - when out walking, when in the supermarket - the residual snuff induces a sneeze. No problem, as I always have a snuff-kerchief to hand.
But boy. The looks of fear and horror from anyone within ten metres. A couple of times I've done that little pantomimey thing of shaking the head and waving the hand 'no', though I don't think they were convinced.
 |
| Snuff mills with parts dating to the 18th century still grind exceeding fine in English factories |
Wednesday, 8 April 2020
Psst ... wanna buy an aircraft?
Airlines around the world are facing up to the reality that air travel is unlikely ever to return to the levels of late 2019, and certainly not within the life of many of their fleet of aircraft. Lufthansa is early off the blocks in announcing that 6 x A380s, 7 x A340-600s and 5 x B747-400s are to go, with another 11 x A320s removed from duty. Subsidiaries Lufthansa Cityline and Eurowings will lose 3 x A340-300s and 10 x A320s, Business Traveller reports.
Emirates are seeking to delay delivery of 8 x A380s, difficult as the aircraft are already in production. And of course Ryan Air have 20 x B737-MAX200s on order - rarely can new additions to a fleet be so unwanted.
It's not just aircraft that are unwanted. Airports face hard times, in some cases after having invested heavily in upgrades. Probably just as well LHR never got its new runway - it will never be needed now. I can see many smaller European airports closing down altogether - too many depend on bribing Easyjet or Ryan Air, and too many just want Summer visitor traffic.
But it's not those holiday-home flights that make money for the airlines but business travel; Politico EU carries a story which I think reflects an unwarranted optimism - "Business travel will come back when HR departments and corporate general counsels decide on a duty-of-care basis that they can relax their prohibition on travel, or actually come out and say, 'It’s time to go travel again'". Of course, with half the world learning to Zoom, manage Whatsapp groups and installing Signal on their phones, those HR departments may just decide that those trips are unnecessary. Of course, folk need to learn how to use those apps. Reader, I have just sent apologies for two Zoom meetings in a row - they are proving an indulgence for those craving attention but who have little of any importance to say. I'm not spending an hour linked to people (who can't pick up boredom signals) to do something that could have been done by email in five minutes.
Even our EU trade talks have resumed, albeit at low speed akin to a crawl, without over the table meetings. Oh, these will be needed at some stage, of course they will; one cannot dispense with all the NVC and interpersonal chemistry, but just maybe we will learn to exhaust the preliminaries by other means before an actual meeting. One can only hope.
Emirates are seeking to delay delivery of 8 x A380s, difficult as the aircraft are already in production. And of course Ryan Air have 20 x B737-MAX200s on order - rarely can new additions to a fleet be so unwanted.
It's not just aircraft that are unwanted. Airports face hard times, in some cases after having invested heavily in upgrades. Probably just as well LHR never got its new runway - it will never be needed now. I can see many smaller European airports closing down altogether - too many depend on bribing Easyjet or Ryan Air, and too many just want Summer visitor traffic.
But it's not those holiday-home flights that make money for the airlines but business travel; Politico EU carries a story which I think reflects an unwarranted optimism - "Business travel will come back when HR departments and corporate general counsels decide on a duty-of-care basis that they can relax their prohibition on travel, or actually come out and say, 'It’s time to go travel again'". Of course, with half the world learning to Zoom, manage Whatsapp groups and installing Signal on their phones, those HR departments may just decide that those trips are unnecessary. Of course, folk need to learn how to use those apps. Reader, I have just sent apologies for two Zoom meetings in a row - they are proving an indulgence for those craving attention but who have little of any importance to say. I'm not spending an hour linked to people (who can't pick up boredom signals) to do something that could have been done by email in five minutes.
Even our EU trade talks have resumed, albeit at low speed akin to a crawl, without over the table meetings. Oh, these will be needed at some stage, of course they will; one cannot dispense with all the NVC and interpersonal chemistry, but just maybe we will learn to exhaust the preliminaries by other means before an actual meeting. One can only hope.
Tuesday, 7 April 2020
We're with you Boris
Today our prayers are for the recovery of the Prime Minister and our thoughts with his partner Carrie Symonds. C'mon Boris - we need you so badly.
Monday, 6 April 2020
Will Starmer defend China?
It is apparent to epidemiologists that three nations - China, Iran and Russia - are not being honest with the rest of the world about the extent and development of the Wuhan virus in their countries. For Iran, the US openly shares satellite images of mass graves but has not yet revealed its satellite monitoring of either China or Russia for fairly obvious reasons. In addition, as the Telegraph reports, China has been flooding Facebook and Instagram with ads attacking the US and even blaming the Wuhan virus on Trump. In Belarus, the unreconstructed Soviet dictator Lukashenko has told his people that driving tractors and drinking vodka will cure the disease. Putin is also pretending that Russians are somehow immune whilst taking what measures he can, given Russia's primitive health infrastructure. In Iran, so many devout Islamists were licking shrines that I have considered changing their moniker from crane-hangers to shrine-lickers. I won't even mention the snake-oil cures peddled within diverse cultures.
These dodgy nations of course sit with us on the world's supranational forum, the UN - two of the epidemiologically irresponsible ones actually on the Security Council. The WHO is run by an Ethiopian chap of no apparent international distinction who has gladly done everything that China has asked of him.
The media is also filled with stories of the failure of that other supranational body, the EU. Failure to offer leadership at time of crisis, failure to implement mutual assistance requests from Italy, and an ongoing failure to release Germany's grip on its gold to help implement the European solidarity they talk about so much.
The reaction of the pro-Globalist, pro-supranational Left in the UK has been predictable; first, accusations of racism against anyone mentioning the origin of the Wuhan virus. Then a vigorous defence of the People's Republic, a defence of the lies, executions, concentration camps, organ removal from prisoners and all. Some bed fellows, Keir. It reminds me of that other old gulag-apologist Nye Bevan - who defended Soviet Russia even as he knew that the Holodomor was killing millions.
Of course, the Left are always helped by the far-right. In this case fake video of crowds at mosques during lockdown, promoted by Voldemort, Hopkins and Batten amongst others, never missing a chance to further their anti-Moslem hate campaign. This allows the Left to add to it's unequivocal support of supranationalism and authoritarian dictatorship its defence of Globalism. Yes, the Left and the global corporates are singing from the same hymn sheet.
Starmer is everything the metropolitan elites are looking for; a characterless technocrat devoid of charisma who supported Remain, adores supranational bodies, excuses Globalism and dismisses the concerns of labour's traditional voters. I'm just listening out for his defence of China - probably just before it's revealed they've been removing the lungs of condemned criminals to implant into Politburo bosses whose own have been compromised by the Wuhan virus.
These dodgy nations of course sit with us on the world's supranational forum, the UN - two of the epidemiologically irresponsible ones actually on the Security Council. The WHO is run by an Ethiopian chap of no apparent international distinction who has gladly done everything that China has asked of him.
The media is also filled with stories of the failure of that other supranational body, the EU. Failure to offer leadership at time of crisis, failure to implement mutual assistance requests from Italy, and an ongoing failure to release Germany's grip on its gold to help implement the European solidarity they talk about so much.
The reaction of the pro-Globalist, pro-supranational Left in the UK has been predictable; first, accusations of racism against anyone mentioning the origin of the Wuhan virus. Then a vigorous defence of the People's Republic, a defence of the lies, executions, concentration camps, organ removal from prisoners and all. Some bed fellows, Keir. It reminds me of that other old gulag-apologist Nye Bevan - who defended Soviet Russia even as he knew that the Holodomor was killing millions.
Of course, the Left are always helped by the far-right. In this case fake video of crowds at mosques during lockdown, promoted by Voldemort, Hopkins and Batten amongst others, never missing a chance to further their anti-Moslem hate campaign. This allows the Left to add to it's unequivocal support of supranationalism and authoritarian dictatorship its defence of Globalism. Yes, the Left and the global corporates are singing from the same hymn sheet.
Starmer is everything the metropolitan elites are looking for; a characterless technocrat devoid of charisma who supported Remain, adores supranational bodies, excuses Globalism and dismisses the concerns of labour's traditional voters. I'm just listening out for his defence of China - probably just before it's revealed they've been removing the lungs of condemned criminals to implant into Politburo bosses whose own have been compromised by the Wuhan virus.
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| Qom shrine licker |
Sunday, 5 April 2020
When Globalism failed
Let's take just a couple of samples from the front pages. From the Telegraph -
One of Britain’s few ventilator manufacturers was still prioritising supplies to China only a month ago, even as the Covid-19 outbreak accelerated here. Breas Medical, which makes breathing equipment from sites in the UK, Sweden and the US and is owned by the Chinese conglomerate Fosun, was focused on demand for ventilators in China until early March, when it was first contacted about boosting supplies to the NHS.And again, from the FT
According to Tagesspiegel the Berlin police had ordered the masks from 3M. They were produced in a 3M factory in China and were due to be reloaded at Bangkok airport and flown to Germany. Instead the delivery went straight to the US.We haven't even got to drugs and chemicals yet, but you can bet that most of the kit so expertly assembled by the army to construct those Nightingale Hospitals was made in China. As, absurdly, are the trousers, smocks and stable belts worn by the soldiers, the MoD having outsourced uniform and clothing production to China.
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump invoked his authority under a Korean war-era law, the Defense Production Act, with regard to 3M’s N95 respirator masks. That allows the Federal Emergency Management Agency (Fema) to use “any and all authority” to buy “the number of N95 respirators” it “determines to be appropriate” from 3M and its subsidiaries, according to the wording of the act.
Time after time in comments both here and in the media, in riposte to my attacks on the failures of Globalism, failures that have condemned huge cohorts of our population to hardship, have halted social mobility and have made our children poorer than their parents, supporters of Globalism have pointed out the compensation. That in return for destroyed lives, hollowed communities and social decline, we have enjoyed cheap stuff. Chinese tat. Uniforms and boots so shoddy that many soldiers buy their own kit. Electric drills for £10 and jeans for a fiver.
Of course, every leader and government across the globe knows the deal with the Wuhan virus. Knows that the Chinese government and propaganda machine have lied and lied, have repressed, threatened and removed doctors and scientists trying to be internationally responsible, have lied to the world, have corrupted the WHO and it's pathetic puppet head, Dr Tedros. They all know the 3,000 deaths the PRC reported are really 300,000 or even 3,000,000 - until we have the declassified spy satellite images we just don't know. Yet whilst so much of our essential goods and supplies comes from this hellhole, we are obliged to be politely friendly to the PRC. No government has openly criticised the evil regime - for now, we need those masks and ventilators.
My anger is for the 1%, the greedy, fat bastards who have not only impoverished and limited their own peoples and nation to make themselves rich, but have hobbled our ability to deal with the consequences of their avarice. If this bloody virus doesn't lead us to make a bonfire of their odious Globalism, we are utterly lost.
Thursday, 2 April 2020
Voices against the lockdown
It's quite proper in a free and open society that anyone should be able to question not only the actions of government but to challenge the prevailing orthodoxy. And at times of radical government action - war, plague - questioning the rationale and objectives of particular courses of action must be expected, and is neither unpatriotic nor counter-constructive.
We must also expect a full spectrum of fanciful suggestions and conspiracy theories, misinformation, distortion, omission and misrepresentation of fact, and many, many innocent errors. And it's often the nature of things that false information spreads more easily than the reality. As Terry Pratchett used to say, a lie can go around the world before the truth has got its boots on.
Social media is censoring the most immediately harmful lunacies to protect the most gullible, the most credulous and the most intellectually vulnerable. But already in the US, following suggestions that Chloroquine may be effective in relieving symptoms, a man has died after drinking something from his garden shed that sounded fairly similar. And both here in Austria and in the UK the nonsense is doing the rounds that the virus can be safely washed into the stomach by drinking warm water.
At the other end of the spectrum, confusion over the numbers of excess fatalities due to the virus baffles even advanced minds. If the lockdown is successful, as it is suggested it is, the R0 of the SARS-Cov-2 virus will fall below 1. A figure of 0.6 was suggested yesterday as being possible. This means there will be few overall excess fatalities. If the government is right, there's not going to be a huge bulge in the mortality figures - evidence for the lethality of the virus will be scientific and clinical.
The other advanced argument against the lockdown was put most eloquently by Toby Young - the economic argument. In The Critic, he argued using QALY figures that spending £350bn to save a few hundred thousand elderly people was a gross distortion of policy. However, also interestingly in the same publication, his arguments were comprehensively rubbished by Sam Bowman;
Taking all this together, we can attempt a rough recalculation of whether the government shutdown is worth it, from a statistical perspective. If 230,000 lives are saved (the difference between mitigation and suppression in the Imperial model Young cites), with an average age of 79.5, that is around 2,070,000 life years saved. At the statistical life year value of £60,000, that is a total benefit in statistical terms of £124.2 billion, compared to less than £66 billion lost to the economy.I do commend the latter piece. Sam Bowman is an economist who explains succinctly and simply why the government's policy is the right one.
Take care all.
Wednesday, 1 April 2020
Useless political puppets at the WHO and Public Health England
The problem with having a 'woke' UN is that it ensures the top jobs are not distributed according to ability but under a rationing system in which every country gets to have a top official, a system not unlike the EU's for appointing its unelected commissioners. So at a time of crisis we have, heading the WHO, Tedros Adhanom. Tedros has a PhD from Nottingham University and he is a Malaria researcher; not a distinguished achievement perhaps in the UK but enough in his native Ethiopia to make him Health Minister, and from there to the UN. His abject failure in his post, his inaction and lack of leadership and above all his subservience to the Chinese government have all been well documented, as has the 'Change' org petition calling for his dismissal, which now has 680,000 signatures. The way in which the WHO and the UN work must now either be overhauled to appoint internationally distinguished candidates or we must re-consider our membership.
At home, the failures of Public Health England are also being widely documented. Having missed the bus on testing, and exhibiting an attitude of dismissal towards more distinguished and qualified advice, they continue to offer a mediocre and lackadaisical response to the crisis. The organisation, under the management of Duncan Selbie, has hitherto concentrated on campaigns against tobacco and the evils of sugary drinks. Selbie, an unknown bureaucrat, earns more than the PM. He was due to answer some very pertinent questions from the Commons' Health & Social Care select committee on the 28th March, but reported he was exhibiting some of the early symptoms of C-19 and so was unable to attend. He is now self-isolating and working from home.
We deserve better than Selbie and Adhanom. This sort of woke stupidity costs lives and ruins others. I leave you with one chart - levels of TB, often multi drug resistant, in London that are actually higher than those in Ethiopia, Iraq and Afghanistan. Selbie has been in his job since 2013. This should have been his bloody priority, not his campaign to ban smoking in all hospital grounds. He has failed at every aspect of public health. The man must go.
At home, the failures of Public Health England are also being widely documented. Having missed the bus on testing, and exhibiting an attitude of dismissal towards more distinguished and qualified advice, they continue to offer a mediocre and lackadaisical response to the crisis. The organisation, under the management of Duncan Selbie, has hitherto concentrated on campaigns against tobacco and the evils of sugary drinks. Selbie, an unknown bureaucrat, earns more than the PM. He was due to answer some very pertinent questions from the Commons' Health & Social Care select committee on the 28th March, but reported he was exhibiting some of the early symptoms of C-19 and so was unable to attend. He is now self-isolating and working from home.
We deserve better than Selbie and Adhanom. This sort of woke stupidity costs lives and ruins others. I leave you with one chart - levels of TB, often multi drug resistant, in London that are actually higher than those in Ethiopia, Iraq and Afghanistan. Selbie has been in his job since 2013. This should have been his bloody priority, not his campaign to ban smoking in all hospital grounds. He has failed at every aspect of public health. The man must go.
Tuesday, 31 March 2020
The world turned upside down
It is actually in the UK's interest to support M Macron and the southern EU states against Germany. Their efforts to force the Bundesbank to shit gold and ensure the future of the EU at least in the short term coincide with British interests. Oh sure, I dislike intensely all supranational bodies and the EU in particular and would love nothing more than to see its disintegration but as St Augustine prayed "..... not yet". The dual impacts of the Wuhan virus and Brexit shock means we need at least for a year or two a stable and functioning EU on our borders. We simply can't afford or accomplish the level of support we would be called upon to provide in the event of an imminent EU break-up.
We don't care if Germany loses her place in the world GDP league as a result of shared fiscal responsibility. In fact it suits us - Macron's plans would in effect castrate a powerful Germany on France's borders long before our Teuton cousins get any new ideas. It will all be money down the drain, of course, and the problem is the Germans know that. And if push comes to shove, I'd guess they'll put Germany before the EU. But we don't want a powerful independent Germany and a resurgent Deutsch mark. We really don't.
So many things will be turned on their heads during this crisis, supporting the French will not be the most extraordinary of them. The car lease market is approaching collapse, car dealerships are in crisis, car manufacturers close to bankruptcy. VW is burning through its €27bn cash reserve at the rate of €2bn a week. Some 13,000 passenger aircraft are now grounded, and after this crisis there may not be room for both Boeing and Airbus in the market without a massive state subsidy fight between the US and EU. The cruise ship industry is finished - our pensioners could just about take the 50/50 risk of Norovirus and spending the cruise voiding through the eye of a needle, but two weeks in a floating Wuhan disease incubator will be too much. Despite the Prozac-bright optimism of some in the markets - "Three months crisis, three months recovery then three months growth" - chirped one chap on the radio this morning - things will never go back to where they were in December 2019.
And as I predicted last Thursday, the public backlash against the police has already begun. I wrote "the longer and deeper the restrictions on our freedoms, the stronger and wider the public backlash, and the bigger the Big Bang demolition of the Central State to come". Well, we haven't even started yet.
Keep well, all.
We don't care if Germany loses her place in the world GDP league as a result of shared fiscal responsibility. In fact it suits us - Macron's plans would in effect castrate a powerful Germany on France's borders long before our Teuton cousins get any new ideas. It will all be money down the drain, of course, and the problem is the Germans know that. And if push comes to shove, I'd guess they'll put Germany before the EU. But we don't want a powerful independent Germany and a resurgent Deutsch mark. We really don't.
So many things will be turned on their heads during this crisis, supporting the French will not be the most extraordinary of them. The car lease market is approaching collapse, car dealerships are in crisis, car manufacturers close to bankruptcy. VW is burning through its €27bn cash reserve at the rate of €2bn a week. Some 13,000 passenger aircraft are now grounded, and after this crisis there may not be room for both Boeing and Airbus in the market without a massive state subsidy fight between the US and EU. The cruise ship industry is finished - our pensioners could just about take the 50/50 risk of Norovirus and spending the cruise voiding through the eye of a needle, but two weeks in a floating Wuhan disease incubator will be too much. Despite the Prozac-bright optimism of some in the markets - "Three months crisis, three months recovery then three months growth" - chirped one chap on the radio this morning - things will never go back to where they were in December 2019.
And as I predicted last Thursday, the public backlash against the police has already begun. I wrote "the longer and deeper the restrictions on our freedoms, the stronger and wider the public backlash, and the bigger the Big Bang demolition of the Central State to come". Well, we haven't even started yet.
Keep well, all.
Monday, 30 March 2020
Freedom and democracy
What stops the young, fit and strong from stealing wealth and assets from the elderly, weak and infirm? Of course the very wealthy can afford to employ other young, fit and strong persons who will protect them just as long as their weekly wedge gives them more than killing their employer and taking their stuff. If you want to see just how this works in practice in a society devoid of law or justice, watch a few episodes of Narcos on Netflix. The drugs markets and the lawless societies in which the kingpins flourish are the true example of free markets - power, wealth, ruthlessness and inhumanity are the qualities favoured in this environment of accelerated evolution. A wholly free market would mean not only food and toilet paper but ICU beds, ventilators, vaccines and medical resources would accrue to the wealthiest or those with the biggest guns. So be careful what you wish for.
Research has shown consistently that when faced with great risk and great uncertainty, and with unknown outcomes, we humans will opt for a social safety-net model every time. We will vote for a minimum-provision-for-everyone model when none of us can be sure we will not require it ourselves. But we will also vote for the opportunity to better one's lot - whether that means keeping hens or retaining our existing store-cupboards and hoard of silver. And this model needs a functioning state that can exercise a greater power than any individuals, that can enforce law and justice and protect the weak and vulnerable. It doesn't have to be a big State, or an intrusive state, but it does have to be able to execute the collective will. Expressed through the secret ballot by universal suffrage and the right of free association.
Anyone here who really wants a wholly free market, take yourself off to Mexico or Colombia. Anyone here who really wants a socialist paradise, take yourself off to Venezuela. No? No takers? OK, so I guess we're just discussing where the floor should be in our social-democratic model, then, and the degree of freedom individuals can exercise under various condition of risk, threat and uncertainty.
That we're having to discuss such things for the first time in this new century is actually a good thing. That we've got the internet on which to do so makes this discussion different from the discussions we had in 1850 or 1917 or 1945. Excellent!
Research has shown consistently that when faced with great risk and great uncertainty, and with unknown outcomes, we humans will opt for a social safety-net model every time. We will vote for a minimum-provision-for-everyone model when none of us can be sure we will not require it ourselves. But we will also vote for the opportunity to better one's lot - whether that means keeping hens or retaining our existing store-cupboards and hoard of silver. And this model needs a functioning state that can exercise a greater power than any individuals, that can enforce law and justice and protect the weak and vulnerable. It doesn't have to be a big State, or an intrusive state, but it does have to be able to execute the collective will. Expressed through the secret ballot by universal suffrage and the right of free association.
Anyone here who really wants a wholly free market, take yourself off to Mexico or Colombia. Anyone here who really wants a socialist paradise, take yourself off to Venezuela. No? No takers? OK, so I guess we're just discussing where the floor should be in our social-democratic model, then, and the degree of freedom individuals can exercise under various condition of risk, threat and uncertainty.
That we're having to discuss such things for the first time in this new century is actually a good thing. That we've got the internet on which to do so makes this discussion different from the discussions we had in 1850 or 1917 or 1945. Excellent!
Saturday, 28 March 2020
Droning on
Back in March 2017 we joked (below) about suggestions that the police would waste public money and take bobbies off the beat by forming and training new 'drone squads'. Well, truth of course is stranger than fiction these days, and dog walkers and solitary hikers out in the lonely wastes of the national parks have been buzzed by police drones. They exist. Who knew?
They were, of course, subject to the law. Gareth Corfield (@GazTheJourno) has questioned whether the use of drones, in particular by the Derbyshire Police, was not in violation of the Air Navigation Order 2016 - and there are compelling questions for the police to answer about the qualifications of those controlling these drones, their compliance with the law and the professional standards we should expect in their use. And I would expect such guidance to be agreed between ministers in the Home Office and Department of Transport, not concocted by the fatuous and self-styled 'College of Policing', which the public do not recognise as having any democratic or legislative legitimacy.
These secret drones will not be the last of the State's little surprises that this virus will bring out of the closet.
Anyhow, it's Saturday, the Sun is shining and here again is that whimsical piece from 2017
*****************
"So, Inspector, this proposed Drone Squad can be staffed by transfers from the Internet Porn Squad? How's that gone?"
"Well sir since 2004 the lads have watched over 2 million hours of online porn. Deserve a medal, they do sir. Constable Hotchkiss can't hear the word 'Brazilian' now without twitching."
"And how many arrests and convictions have resulted?"
"Just the one sir. The chairman of the golf club who put hidden cameras in the ladies. But that doesn't affect the deterrent effect of those evil film makers knowing that the Force is watching. And we've learnt our lesson - the lads need periodic rotation out of the squad. Hence the new Drone Squad, sir"
"Ah yes. Sergeant Thom bought one for his kids and saw the crime-busting possibilities straight away...."
"That's right sir. Of course, police drones would cost a lot more, it being taxpayers' money, and the lads would need professional training from the RAF"
"I'm still not happy about us flying these potentially lethal things over people's houses and gardens .. have you considered the risks?"
"We estimate that 80% of the time we'll be flying over public roads and open land. In particular it will allow the lads to gather video evidence of widespread 'dogging' activity in Knickers Woods, sir. We could spend a year keeping constant tabs on it all then swoop. Then there's the poofs sorry BLTs on Handy Heath. We can follow 'em sir from the sky without risking officers on the ground."
"You don't think there's a risk that some of this footage may leak onto the web? Doesn't this sort of surveillance constitute a variety of porn in itself?"
"That's the beauty of it sir. The Internet Porn Squad can keep an eye out for any leaked footage"
"Ah yes. When was the last time any of these men actually pounded a beat or responded to a disturbance? Some of them look as though they have difficulty walking"
"Yes sir. Injuries incurred in the line of service, watching the porn sir. Sixteen early ill-health retirements so far. We're hoping that working the drones gets them out of their chairs, sir. Into other chairs."
"Very well. Carry on, Inspector"
They were, of course, subject to the law. Gareth Corfield (@GazTheJourno) has questioned whether the use of drones, in particular by the Derbyshire Police, was not in violation of the Air Navigation Order 2016 - and there are compelling questions for the police to answer about the qualifications of those controlling these drones, their compliance with the law and the professional standards we should expect in their use. And I would expect such guidance to be agreed between ministers in the Home Office and Department of Transport, not concocted by the fatuous and self-styled 'College of Policing', which the public do not recognise as having any democratic or legislative legitimacy.
These secret drones will not be the last of the State's little surprises that this virus will bring out of the closet.
Anyhow, it's Saturday, the Sun is shining and here again is that whimsical piece from 2017
*****************
"So, Inspector, this proposed Drone Squad can be staffed by transfers from the Internet Porn Squad? How's that gone?"
"Well sir since 2004 the lads have watched over 2 million hours of online porn. Deserve a medal, they do sir. Constable Hotchkiss can't hear the word 'Brazilian' now without twitching."
"And how many arrests and convictions have resulted?"
"Just the one sir. The chairman of the golf club who put hidden cameras in the ladies. But that doesn't affect the deterrent effect of those evil film makers knowing that the Force is watching. And we've learnt our lesson - the lads need periodic rotation out of the squad. Hence the new Drone Squad, sir"
"Ah yes. Sergeant Thom bought one for his kids and saw the crime-busting possibilities straight away...."
"That's right sir. Of course, police drones would cost a lot more, it being taxpayers' money, and the lads would need professional training from the RAF"
"I'm still not happy about us flying these potentially lethal things over people's houses and gardens .. have you considered the risks?"
"We estimate that 80% of the time we'll be flying over public roads and open land. In particular it will allow the lads to gather video evidence of widespread 'dogging' activity in Knickers Woods, sir. We could spend a year keeping constant tabs on it all then swoop. Then there's the poofs sorry BLTs on Handy Heath. We can follow 'em sir from the sky without risking officers on the ground."
"You don't think there's a risk that some of this footage may leak onto the web? Doesn't this sort of surveillance constitute a variety of porn in itself?"
"That's the beauty of it sir. The Internet Porn Squad can keep an eye out for any leaked footage"
"Ah yes. When was the last time any of these men actually pounded a beat or responded to a disturbance? Some of them look as though they have difficulty walking"
"Yes sir. Injuries incurred in the line of service, watching the porn sir. Sixteen early ill-health retirements so far. We're hoping that working the drones gets them out of their chairs, sir. Into other chairs."
"Very well. Carry on, Inspector"
Friday, 27 March 2020
A taste of isolation
At 8pm last night my ISP's LTE servers went down. Reader, believe me, the anxiety was acute. They're still down but I've reactivated an old PAYG LTE cube from a different ISP - so now must catch up before another post.
Whilst the crisis lasts I'm keeping both - and even considering a backup-backup satellite subscription and dish. Since both routers are Huawei, you can imagine some of the thoughts that went through my mind. I don't have a TV either - so have been reliant on local radio. I've got an old marine SSB set out in the barn and at one point seriously considered rigging it up with a car battery and makeshift aerial.
It really brought home to me just how utterly dependent on our internet connections we've become.
Whilst the crisis lasts I'm keeping both - and even considering a backup-backup satellite subscription and dish. Since both routers are Huawei, you can imagine some of the thoughts that went through my mind. I don't have a TV either - so have been reliant on local radio. I've got an old marine SSB set out in the barn and at one point seriously considered rigging it up with a car battery and makeshift aerial.
It really brought home to me just how utterly dependent on our internet connections we've become.
Thursday, 26 March 2020
Life after the Wuhan virus
The effects of the Wuhan virus on our freedoms and liberties has only just started. Even with a partial lifting of isolating restrictions in a 'stop - start' control regime, it now seems inevitable that we face food rationing. Ironically, the UK is self-sufficient in toilet roll manufacture but not in food. Professor Ashton introduces the unmentionable topic in the Telegraph. However, posts about rationing and the interesting effect this will have on the extent of the nation's food fads and imagined allergies are to come. This is a post about the future.
We will get the Wuhan virus under control, maybe this year, maybe next. And I have one prediction - that after an unprecedented intrusion into our freedoms and liberties, any hopes that the Central State has of permanently maintaining these controls will be dashed. On the contrary, the universal backlash against central State power will catalyse a hugely overdue Big Bang devolution of powers. We must just ensure that our most fundamental freedoms remain intact; universal suffrage, the secret ballot and the freedom to form and participate in political parties.
In addition to movement controls, we are likely to see food rationing, possibly even energy rationing and internet and phone restrictions, controls on internet shopping and deliveries, import controls, currency controls and unprecedented State use of mobile phone location and activity data to police and monitor public behaviour. These may all be used to ensure the greatest benefit for the greatest number whilst the crisis subsists. But paradoxically it will not be libertarians praying for the early development of a vaccine (which may also be compulsory - and sod the anti-vaxers. They will disappear along with the food faddists) but the central Statists; the longer and deeper the restrictions on our freedoms, the stronger and wider the public backlash, and the bigger the Big Bang demolition of the Central State to come.
There will be an interesting re-discovery of moral exactitude and an intolerance of moral relativity. We will get used to the idea of collectivist libertarianism. As a libertarian, I have long accepted that the freedoms I demand only extend so far as they cause no harm to any other. Libertarianism isn't the sort of me-generation selfishness that drives many of the objections to the lockdown measures, but the freedom to make your own decisions about your own life within an utterly essential collective, within a society and nation. And without ceding some freedoms to the collective, we cannot enjoy individual liberty.
But these are points for debate and discussion, not a didactic prescription. And that will be new for us. Perhaps not since the age of Huxley and Orwell will there have been such a national debate, will we engage in such dialogue over existential definitions, identity and morality. The paradox is that the Wuhan virus, from the heart of the most repressive nation on earth, may catalyse for us a freedom unknown for a century.
We will get the Wuhan virus under control, maybe this year, maybe next. And I have one prediction - that after an unprecedented intrusion into our freedoms and liberties, any hopes that the Central State has of permanently maintaining these controls will be dashed. On the contrary, the universal backlash against central State power will catalyse a hugely overdue Big Bang devolution of powers. We must just ensure that our most fundamental freedoms remain intact; universal suffrage, the secret ballot and the freedom to form and participate in political parties.
In addition to movement controls, we are likely to see food rationing, possibly even energy rationing and internet and phone restrictions, controls on internet shopping and deliveries, import controls, currency controls and unprecedented State use of mobile phone location and activity data to police and monitor public behaviour. These may all be used to ensure the greatest benefit for the greatest number whilst the crisis subsists. But paradoxically it will not be libertarians praying for the early development of a vaccine (which may also be compulsory - and sod the anti-vaxers. They will disappear along with the food faddists) but the central Statists; the longer and deeper the restrictions on our freedoms, the stronger and wider the public backlash, and the bigger the Big Bang demolition of the Central State to come.
There will be an interesting re-discovery of moral exactitude and an intolerance of moral relativity. We will get used to the idea of collectivist libertarianism. As a libertarian, I have long accepted that the freedoms I demand only extend so far as they cause no harm to any other. Libertarianism isn't the sort of me-generation selfishness that drives many of the objections to the lockdown measures, but the freedom to make your own decisions about your own life within an utterly essential collective, within a society and nation. And without ceding some freedoms to the collective, we cannot enjoy individual liberty.
But these are points for debate and discussion, not a didactic prescription. And that will be new for us. Perhaps not since the age of Huxley and Orwell will there have been such a national debate, will we engage in such dialogue over existential definitions, identity and morality. The paradox is that the Wuhan virus, from the heart of the most repressive nation on earth, may catalyse for us a freedom unknown for a century.
Tuesday, 24 March 2020
Living under Lockdown
Well, it's here. Boris had no choice. And whilst my underlying beliefs remain unchanged, there are no libertarians in a plague or in a war of national existence. Just as our forefathers accepted conscription and rationing, we must accept lockdown. Breaching the terms is as treasonous as ignoring the black-out and shining a light up to enemy bombers.
We've had lockdown here for a week already. The local Spar is fine - after an initial run on toilet paper, the staff worked with a fury to get stuff onto the shelves faster than folk were taking it off, with the result that yesterday the shelves and aisles were groaning with Easter stuff. I have some migrants from Italy - they come every year. Black Redstarts. Usually two pairs. So rare in the UK that I once had to spend (planning condition) £300,000 installing a 'brown roof' on a new building for them; much to the chagrin of the client. The ecology people said they liked old bombsites, with plenty of demolition rubble, burnt wood and fireweed. Actually, they just like flies - or insects anyway - each pair eating some 1.5kg during the breeding season. And whilst the locals regard them as a bloody nuisance, I welcome them. They're ugly, they can't sing for shit and they're not entertaining like tits, but just for the untold millions that they cost UK developers, they're fab.
Stay safe all and let's take care of each other.
We've had lockdown here for a week already. The local Spar is fine - after an initial run on toilet paper, the staff worked with a fury to get stuff onto the shelves faster than folk were taking it off, with the result that yesterday the shelves and aisles were groaning with Easter stuff. I have some migrants from Italy - they come every year. Black Redstarts. Usually two pairs. So rare in the UK that I once had to spend (planning condition) £300,000 installing a 'brown roof' on a new building for them; much to the chagrin of the client. The ecology people said they liked old bombsites, with plenty of demolition rubble, burnt wood and fireweed. Actually, they just like flies - or insects anyway - each pair eating some 1.5kg during the breeding season. And whilst the locals regard them as a bloody nuisance, I welcome them. They're ugly, they can't sing for shit and they're not entertaining like tits, but just for the untold millions that they cost UK developers, they're fab.
Stay safe all and let's take care of each other.
| EU/EEA and the UK | Sum of Cases | Sum of Deaths |
| Italy | 59138 | 5476 |
| Spain | 28572 | 1720 |
| Germany | 24774 | 94 |
| France | 16018 | 674 |
| United_Kingdom | 5683 | 281 |
| Netherlands | 4204 | 179 |
| Austria | 3631 | 16 |
| Belgium | 3401 | 75 |
| Norway | 2132 | 7 |
| Sweden | 1906 | 21 |
| Portugal | 1600 | 14 |
| Denmark | 1395 | 13 |
| Czech_Republic | 1165 | 1 |
| Ireland | 906 | 4 |
| Luxembourg | 798 | 8 |
| Poland | 634 | 7 |
| Finland | 626 | 1 |
| Greece | 624 | 15 |
| Iceland | 568 | 1 |
| Romania | 433 | 2 |
| Slovenia | 414 | 1 |
| Estonia | 326 | 0 |
| Croatia | 235 | 1 |
| Bulgaria | 185 | 3 |
| Slovakia | 185 | 0 |
| Hungary | 167 | 7 |
| Lithuania | 143 | 1 |
| Latvia | 139 | 0 |
| Cyprus | 95 | 0 |
| Malta | 90 | 0 |
| Liechtenstein | 46 | 0 |
| Total | 160233 | 8622 |
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