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I found myself having to explain this again in the office yesterday. Forgive my crude graph. The relationship was established long ago, when fewer than 10% of 18 year olds went into higher education but astonishingly still prevails - the estimated drop in the premium from much larger numbers emerging with degrees has not (yet) happened. The graph illustrates the typical earnings over a lifetime of a graduate and skilled manual worker. At first the trade enjoys a rapid rise in income in their 20s but somewhere around the age of 30 earnings equalise and continue to diverge from then on. Trade skills and therefore earnings decline as age slows output - a door fitter who could hang eight doors a day at 25 will be lucky if he can hang three a day at 55.
The Graduate Premium - the area Y less the area X - is the gross excess that a graduate earns over a lifetime. At Net Present Value, it's estimated at somewhere between £400k and £1m. And this is the reason why successive governments all want to make students pay more for their qualifications. They reckon that £40k of debt is a cheap price to pay for £400k of benefits. Prospective students, of course, will not see it that way.
My question is why the greater supply of graduates in the economy hasn't apparently competed away the scale of the Premium by anything significant - as a recent government survey suggests;
There is, however, evidence that the graduate premium may now be starting to decline. According to the Department for Education and Skills, in 2005 and in England alone, the difference in earnings between graduates and those educated to A-level or equivalent remained high at 45%, but was slightly lower than the position in 2001 when the margin was 51%. The above finding has to be interpreted in a wider context, however. First of all, graduates are continuing to earn substantially more than non-degree holders and they are also less likely to be unemployed. Moreover, research from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has shown that the graduate earnings premium in the UK is high by international standards, and is lower than those in only five other countries: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Switzerland and the US.
So equitable recovery of tax costs or grossly unfair imposition? You decide.
Oh dear. Not since the tourist advice that yodelling is encouraged in the whispering gallery of St Paul's can the poor septics have been misinformed as much as by Vanity Fair editor Gradon Carter's January letter. Reporting on the popularity of Downton Abbey, Carter writes;
The series, by the way, is so popular that it has sparked a sudden demand for top hats in London. Marks & Spencer can barely keep them in supply. Fashion columns point out that young men are wearing them with velvet jackets and jeans, a look that—if you’ve been around long enough—has come and gone a number of times over the past few decades. Waistcoats, another throwback to the Edwardian male costume, are also becoming the rage, according to the Financial Times.
So if in the West End in the next week or so you spot a chap in an Eton pop wes'cut, velvet smoking jacket and silk topper with boot-cut Levis, he'll probably be a rather gullible American reader of VF rather than insane. Or British.
Foot's assumption of the Labour leadership in November 1980 immediately pushed Labour ahead in the opinion polls, and, as the prospect of the extent of the cuts necessary to rebalance the economy became clear, Labours lead went into double figures, giving Foot real hope of an election victory before 1984.
Of course, 'events' were to intervene.
Being a policeman is not the most dangerous job in Britain. It's not even close to being the most dangerous job. The construction industry, mining, quarrying, fishing and even window cleaning are all professions with many times the risk of work-related injuries and fatalities than policing. Even amongst the emergency services, firemen face far greater risks to health than the police. So as the 'Times' tells us today (no link, £) that 10% of the police we employ are either on sick leave or 'restricted duties' at any one time one smells a very big rat.
Police work-related sickness or inability to work should be no greater than any of the professions that are inherently more risky in occupational health terms, yet it outstrips them by far. It is clear that coppers, with the connivance of their bosses, are faking illness to an extent unheard of even amongst the cosseted ranks of pre-Thatcher dockers or print workers. And it's costing us a small fortune. And let's be clear. It's not swinging the lead, it's not skiving, it's not sick leave; it's theft.
FIFA judges were said to be 'extremely disappointed' at the UK's goody bag, delivered yesterday. It was reported to have contained a copy of "British Football Heroes" by a G. Brown, a CD single by Victoria Beckham, a tea towel with a picture of a Beefeater on it and a Cadbury's selection box. In contrast, the Russian goody bags were reported to have contained the number to a safety deposit box containing $1m, 300g of finest uncut Columbian marching powder and 30 day-tickets to Montmartre's finest whorehouse. FIFA awarded Russia full points for "a bid that demonstrated a complete understanding of the needs of the world of international soccer".
It is not only the moral right, but the moral duty of those on the inside of governments or organisations that undertake illegal, subversive or seditious activities to expose the wrongdoings to public view. We must defend and protect such whistleblowers absolutely, for in their conscience rests the warranty of our democracy. However, it is also completely right and proper for any nation to use its network of diplomats and consuls to gather political, military and economic intelligence to the benefit of that nation, within the limits of the law. There is nothing to suggest the information now appearing on Wikileaks exposes anything improper in any way. The US government therefore has a just expectation that its employees, agents and servants will keep it secret. The leaker, the insider, must be prosecuted to the limits of the law.
However, there is a view that the blood of probable leaker, a very junior soldier, will not be enough to assuage the thirst for vengeance, and that the publisher, Assange, will provide a far more satisfactory victim. This view is mistaken.
Once the information is out, it's out. If Wikileaks is guilty then so is every mainstream media outlet in the world that has re-published the information. If Assange is guilty, then so is the BBC. The US government must take this one on the chin. The chance to shut down a valuable platform for legitimate leaks is a temptation to many governments, but it must be resisted. These leaks aren't justified, and should never have happened, but Assange is the wrong target.
There is no better venue in the world for the 2018 World Cup than Spain. With a language that unites the old world and the new, a network of modern stadia and a transport infrastructure that makes Britain's look Neanderthal, Spain also has Sun, the Med and pretty girls, many of them without even a trace of a moustache. Top class hotels, world class cuisine, superlative art and architecture and, even with recent price rises, some of the cheapest drink and cigarettes in Europe. C'mon, where would you rather spend the Summer? Barcelona or Bromsgrove?
You know it makes sense. Back Spain for Eighteen.
I can think of ten pathologies more basic and urgent than the DoH's and their puppet Lansley's priorities:
1. Rickets - on the upsurge
2. Multi drug resistant TB - A real worry in parts of London
3. Head and body lice - even nice middle class kids get them these days
4. Vermin - rats, mice, foxes, squirrels, cockroaches, bedbugs
5. Sexually transmitted disease - chlamydia is sterilising thousands, HIV is rampant amongst hetero Africans
6. Food hygiene - adulteration
7. Port health - ports and airports, disease screening
8. Birth defects due to first cousin unions
9. Faecal hygiene*
10. Malnutrition
* Always wear gloves on public transport, particularly if you smoke. Viruses like the Winter Vomiting bug are transmitted by people not washing their hands properly after shitting, and transferring minute particles of faecal matter onto handrails, grab bars, door buttons etc. which you then touch, and transfer to your lips if you have a ciggie.
As concrete batching plants across the nation stand idle, and brickies count the cost of lost earnings, construction schemes in their early stages are clocking up lost time. This is when trad construction loses out to off-site fabrication, or when those schemes that started early enough to have finished the building envelope can struggle on. If the suburban trains were working, obv, which they don't seem able to do. You'd be surprised how many construction workers in London are dependent on public transport.
Yesterday the office emptied by stealth as I was on a long phone call. When I started the call, full office. When I looked around as I replaced the handset, empty office. They'll get some stick this morning.
