How much of your net income do you spend on food? Exclude from your weekly Tesco bill the booze, the detergents and the DVDs. I reckon mine's about 7%, maybe 8% - and this includes real bacon from Borough Market, unpasteurized cheese and coffee from a French importer, artisan bread and the rest, offset by cooking generally undervalued ingredients, such as the cheap beef shoulder and root vegetables now meltingly part of a glorious winter Pot Au Feu and good for at least three days' dinners. The only supermarket item that's raised an eyebrow recently is the cost of Basmati rice, a tad over £1.50/kg, with a bulk commodity price of £600/tonne or so, within reasonable mark-up terms. Anyway, being honest, a 20% rise in food prices would still only take my food spend from 7% to just 8.4% ... it's the gearing. High national per capita GNP and smaller populations make nations resilient to food price shocks, whilst low per capita GNP and large populations make them extremely vulnerable. Following the 2008 commodity increases, far more people in poorer nations are now paying 60% - 80% of their net incomes on food, making them extremely vulnerable indeed to future price shocks.
Somewhere out there must be a clever cartographer who can produce a world projection based on gearing, but for now you'll have to imagine the combination of population size (a close proxy for food consumption) and PC GNP;
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Who eats all the Pies? India and China, of course
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| Per Capita GNP (IMF) |
There's a third factor, of course, and that's the land resource each nation has in relation to population - lots of land and low population can indicate a degree of self-sufficiency - Australia and the US are good examples. Conversely, the UK, which has been unable to produce domestically sufficient food since around 1900 and now imports some 50% of all food, remains vulnerable on this score if protectionist measures are taken elsewhere - such as India's prohibition on rice exports. Or if a nation like China with trillions in foreign reserves commits these resources on the market to offset a food price shock.
The Africans, as always, are buggered.