When a number of seemingly unconnected stories around a single theme hit the news at the same time my alarm bells start to ring. Gliding swan moment or mere coincidence?
Nissan leaked news that post-Brexit it may consider retrenching to Sunderland, breaking the manufacturing tie with Renault and returning Micra production from France to the UK, where the electric Leaf, and ICE Qashqai and Juke are made. The reason leaked to the FT was to increase UK market share from 4% to 20%.
Next, the EU are almost as desperate to lock the UK into its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) as they are to gain access to our fishing waters. The Telegraph reports
.. membership requires an acceptance of the EU’s rules and close ties to EU climate policy after Brexit. The Government has not yet decided on a course of action, and a carbon pricing consultation is set to be published in due course.Thirdly there is the sour note around the UK's hosting of COP26 in Glasgow - firstly whether Sturgeon's Scotland was actually up to hosting an international event, and secondly the defenestration of the backbench MP who had ambitions to chair it in favour of someone with greater reach. Zac Goldsmith is now being mooted for the post.
If targets accepted when the UK was a member state or future agreed goals are not reached, Britain could face punitive measures from the EU - including fines or even the temporary suspension of market access.
And finally of course the 2035 ICE vehicle sales ban - which includes hybrids.
So the petrol / diesel ban first. As a voice on the radio noted, this will probably be your second next new car. Your next is still likely to be an ICE vehicle. Car makers will need to make substantial investments in new AI plants that employ fewer workers to assemble vehicles whose engines and transmissions also contain many fewer parts than ICE power units. Secondly, one can speculate that the EU desperately want control over carbon taxes and tax offsets to allow it to control the managed transition of Germany's car industry to non-ICE production; if the UK slips under the net and accelerates new investment, innovation and international markets from here it will put the entire EU on the back foot.
That's my take - that there's some furious footwork going on under the surface of the placid waters, and its all to do with Europe's car industry. Am I off-beam here?
26 comments:
Just a semantic point.
"Retrenching" means "cutting back".
I think that you meant the opposite - which would indeed be a lifesaver for Sunderland.
No you're not off beam.
Nissan are correct in making greater use of their Sunderland factory. It has the highest level of productivity of any of their plants in Europe. And the lowest level of mischief from their unions.
They're also perfectly correct in wanting to get out of the tie up with Renault. Another story, but one I fully agree with. The latest Micra is a disaster and French build quality is way below par in what is a hugely competitive sector of the market.
(I do not seek to knock France. Just Renault. Toyota's Yaris is built there with far fewer issues).
With respect to the EU, it's perfectly understandable they should seek to protect their vehicle manufacturers. In the same way we have a similar attitude to our finance sector. And our fishing industry.
At long last they have finally accepted that we really do have the upper hand in so many areas - and the personnel to negotiate with our best interests uppermost. And I take some satisfaction that Farage is genuinely going to keep them on track.
They know that politics in Britain has changed, same as they're acutely aware Trump is not going to be a one term President. Liken this to what's going on in the US (and doubtless will be summed up with refusing a hand shake and tearing up paper). Not panic, just an effort to cripple.
There are so many things dead wrong about committing us to this no ICE from 2035, however that's because we signed up to some treaty or protocol - and pressure groups are holding us to it via the courts.
Strategically it makes sense to quit sending boat loads of money to less than savory places to burn their oil. For sure it does, however our actions to comply with what is an engineered global warming scam will not be repeated globally. The price of oil will go down (it is already) and other developing countries will take advantage of it to our detriment. Vietnam comes to mind.
No Squire, you're on beam.
Cheesy - no, retrenching is the word. Though I've changed 'in' to 'to' for clarity. They are reported to be closing their operations in France in favour of Sunderland.
“The stone age did not end because the world ran out of stones, and the oil age will not end because we run out of oil.” (H/T either Sheikh Yamani or Don Huberts - take your pick!)
What was being defined here was that better technologies come along and displace (not replace) the older ones. We still have horses, they just don't do much work these days.
And as Smoking Scot pointed out, it would be strategically better (and safer) not to be dependent on unstable foreign powers for our energy.
Bring it on!
indeed, I think you're onto something: but there are some subtleties
the ETS angle (which lies in the sphere of my specialist subject) is interesting, as it's one we can "concede" cost-free. Because the UK already has the first and most wide-ranging CO2 tax of any Eu nation - and most of them look up to us in this regard - "they do it so much better in Britain"
It's technically a supplement or surcharge to the ETS
And it's one of the many things of which Boris listed some at Greenwich (like yourself, Mr R, I really rate that speech) - where our standards are higher than theirs: because we want them that way!
the ju-jitsu here would be to insist flamboyantly that they all impose our level of CO2 tax, with immediate effect ("because we don't want you undercutting us on a vital matter like little Greta's earth-saving mission"), and let them trade that demand out with an important concession somewhere else
No, I don't think you're off beam. I too was wondering if the drip-feeding of information was coincidence and was coming to the conclusion it was all inter-related.
We have too many car manufacturers and some are going to go to the wall over the next decade or so. It will be those who still rely on petrol or who bet on diesel and are behind in the race to develop viable electric vehicles.
Maybe when the electric car fiasco explodes (what percentage is needed to collapse a grid based on windmills supplying a non-existent "charging infrastructure") we might find this country still having a reasonable capacity to make proper cars.
Don't know if that is part of Nissan's thinking but it might be a consequence.
I have always maintained that nation-level solving of issues like the supposed CO2 issue is more coherent - well, regarding a construct like the EU, that is.
Taxation is 'redistribution' - and that redistributed money is usually hopeless in solving any climate problem ( I hear rumours of airports being built in the Maldives - islands that are supposed to be sinking )
Problem-solving, research, innovation, development, manufacture - why does the UK need an overpaid talking shop in Brussels to achieve those ?
I have also never understood why an island would not invest its money in wave and tidal power instead of the unreliable solar and wind.
If the UK is to somehow ditch the ICE part - let the UK put its universities to some use and come up with the alternative solutions ourselves.
I hope Shell and BP have a plan to ensure they stay in business and profitable.
@ hope Shell and BP have a plan
they do (Shell's more obvious than BP's)
but not (yet) as fast-moving as Equinor (= Statoil) or Total
the pension funds of Britain depend on it!
Isn't all this palaver over emissions just so much ignorant tosh?
In order to provide the amount of electricity required to drive 100% of road vehicles rather than 2% there needs to be a lot more capacity than a bunch of useless windmills. Essentially, the fuels currently sitting in people's tanks, will be burned less efficiently at the power station instead, so no benefit to the environment.
This has far more to do with the desire of government to control peoples' movements than maintaining a clean pollution free environment. There are a couple of things here, there is no way that a subscription/on demand version of public transport will ever work in the wilds of Wales or anywhere outside of towns, and I reckon that having had access to personal transport for not far short of 100 years, ordinary folk are not going to give that up. easily.
One of the main reasons for Brexit has been the idea that "we will be doing such and such in x number of years"... Making plans for Nigel is what caused Nigel to get on his bike.
Actually NO, EFF OFF!
Piers Corbyn might be right, we might just be entering a solar minimum and need as much fossil fuel as possible to keep warm.
Yes, that's better.
https://www.thefreedictionary.com/retrench
However, you then implicitly support the point made in the Guardian, which is that overall there will be a reduction in operations, even at Sunderland, for the simple reason that Nissan will be concentrating on the UK market at the expense of the much larger global one, notably that of the European Union.
TBH it's by no means clear what they intend at this stage, but it's better news than could be for Sunderland.
"There is no way that a subscription/on demand version of public transport will ever work in the wilds of Wales or anywhere outside of towns"
It isn't even working in London!
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/electric-carsharing-scheme-london-scrapped-a4349836.html
The lack of joined-up thinking over EV's and our ability to charge them is comical especially given the call to prevent even HYBRIDS from being introduced - a 'transition' to EV's (via hybrid) seems doable but a straight-to-EV looks impossible given the lack of infrastructure and the time needed to deliver it. I forsee immediate policy changes to mandatory Smart Meters being brought forward pronto....
... and given the current problems inherent in that roll out/operation this is going to be hilarious!
I wonder which reality hits first - the fact that catastrophic man made climate change is a lie or the Grand Solar Minimum coldfest 'demands' we INCREASE CO2 production to 'save the world'.....
Maybe they should ask Greta what we should do.
You couldn't make this shit up.
I suspect this is all an EU plot to get the UK to commit to an unrealistic financial/investment future to really screw our economy over since the Germans must, by now, realise that their own suicidal move to green energy is destroying their industries fast than we are ours.
I also agree that Glasgow is not the best place to hold the forthcoming COP. We didn't do at all well with the 2005 G8 summit with a security cordon many miles out from the Gleneagles.
Then it was just a few VIPs; this one will be dozens of times larger, plus Greta. Nor can they fly in to Glasgow airport; it'll need to be Prestwick.
In 05 we had to draft in police from forces all over Britain and it cost a bomb. Heaven knows what it'll cost now.
Yes I have a vested interest for I do not like Sturgeon - and she's bound to spin it for indy2.
Nishimura and Ashai
Bye bye London
The reason Nissan and other Japanese companies were considering to pull manufacturing out of the UK (and the EU) was because the EU had signed a trading deal with Japan where the import duty on Japanese made cars would be reduced to zero within 10 years.
This is why I have always argued that our industry, businesses (and NHS) are far safer if we are in control of negotiating our own trade deals and it is not left in the hands of unelected and un-removable EU commissioners more interested in German cars and French food.
Alarm bells are ringing for me as I see TPTB using false claims of an anthropogenic global warming disaster to use as an excuse to tax and regulate us.
I’m hoping that Nigel Farage, having taken us out of the authority of the undemocratic EU, will take up the fight against this new attempt to control us.
I’m hoping that Nigel Farage, having taken us out of the authority of the undemocratic EU, will take up the fight against this new attempt to control us.
Amen to that - the forces rallied against the public to prevent the truth about CAGW is getting to be beyond a joke. The argument falls at any reasonable inspection yet the media (as usual) are aligned with all the Globalist efforts to portray impending disaster as something we need to be worried about - despite over 40 years of CONSTANT claims being unproven. Not a SINGLE scare has come to fruition - NOT ONE.
We need cheap, plentiful and reliable energy to move onwards. The first country to break the chains of CO2 scaremongering will be rich beyond belief. Why can't that be us?
Wg.
"If the UK is to somehow ditch the ICE part - let the UK put its universities to some use and come up with the alternative solutions ourselves"
We used to be at the forefront of nuclear power innovation. Heard talk of Thorium/ salt reactors being the future. Perhaps our research and resources should be directed at this. Solving energy independence and the emission issue.
M.
Does anyone take the proposals seriously? I mean.... it's a virtual impossibility, virtue signalling, pile of nonsense. Please, someone, anyone give me even a hint that any of this is achievable - or even necessary.
I thought the scaremongers had the high ground for 'stupidity' but these proposals beggar belief. Can we have even ONE member of Parliament stand up and call out the Emperor for being naked?
Do we have one MP with a degree in Physics or Chemistry ?
Don Cox
We engineers get a great amount of entertainment from watching Captain Lludd going fruiloop over displacement technology.
Oh Canada!
https://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorial_cartoon/2020/02/03/michael-de-adder-so-long.html
You chaps will be champing at the bit for Javid's Brexit Red Tape challenge.
Looking forward to your ideas following the Budget. Plenty of thinking time given that the cupboard of ideas is currently bare.
Re the 2035 ICE vehicle ban.
there is zero demands for EV from consumers. the demand comes from the regulators. a couple big officials in large car manufacturers clearly stated so. google for it.
of course manufacturers will look forward to replace the entire private fleet with new, expensive vehicles, because governments so mandated.
but this will have disastrous economic consequences. furthermore, where is the capacity? if a sizeable amount of motorists will switch to electric, the grid will collapse.
rely on unrealiable, scarce energy sources for electricity production, and force everybody to give up fossil fuels. what can possibly go wrong?
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