The government is doing what anyone piloting a boat in grunty weather does, balancing course and speed over ground with the effects of wind, waves and tide. To avoid going beam-on in dangerous seas you may have to go in a direction for a while you don't want. Or in really grunty weather, get into deep water and ride it out. The government is balancing excess deaths against both their ability to maintain public order and keep the economy from tanking by more than 20% of GDP.
You'll find various bloggers and tweeters around the manor all claiming to know exactly what the answer is. Well, if they were really that clever, someone in authority would have noticed by now, I reckon. So like most folk of the Realm, I put my trust in the government's response, knowing it to be flawed and imperfect, but nonetheless better than any alternative. I don't know the answer, you see, and don't condemn anyone else's opinion because like the lucky sod picking the winner in a sweepstake they may be right. Or they may have picked the munter that falls at the first fence. We need the evidence - the curve - to validate future plans.
However, the realisation across the world is that herd immunity is the only outcome that will allow us to rescue what we can of the world we had at the end of 2019, and that means getting some 60% of the population infected, starting with those most likely to survive. That means allowing the R0 of the Wuhan virus to rise above 1. That's why Denmark, Germany and others are planning to re-open schools and universities and manage a return to a simulacrum of normal life. Albeit one in which facemasks will be the norm for some time to come. Whilst continuing to protect those at most risk.
And that's the next hurdle. There seems to be a consensus about opening schools early in May, but hundreds of millions of facemasks will be needed, and indications are that supplies are not due to come on-stream until July and August. If the MSM knew their arse from their elbow, instead of destroying their own cred by trying to ambush the government, that's the sort of question they should be asking.
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| The Telegraph reports the spike in deaths |
18 comments:
I'm persuaded by your comments (and those of John Redwood!) that we restart the economy sooner rather than later. But. It will take time for businesses and other organisations to start up with the necessary safety measures in place.
I guess that there will be various 'classes' of business. Early openers to include schools and universities, many factories, and many self employed. Late openers to include restaurants, pubs and coffee shops (sorry). Then finally stadium events. And the most vulnerable groups to continue social isolation for some time.
I rather expect that people will practice social distancing for some time, although it will slacken. We've grabbed the chance of building up our health services in advance of their use. Let's not snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, even if that victory will continue to be bittersweet for all those affected.
If letting the less vulnerable section of the population get the virus to provide herd immunity, then the lockdown should have been restricted to the elderly and those with serious underlying health conditions. Basically, what Sweden has done.
I'm afraid I don't trust the Government to do the right thing. They had plenty of warning about the virus yet failed to react quickly enough. They and PHE have obviously missed opportunities to acquire sufficient PPE; get testing capability ramped up and all the time they have REFUSED to stop the dozens of planes coming from highly infected countries every day and the passengers from dispersing around the country using the public transport system.
It is obvious they are terrified of the media, particularly the (admittedly biased) broadcasters; the daily briefings are an embarrassment.
I'm afraid all I trust the Government to do is to continue jumping whenever Laura Kuensberg and pals say "jump."
The question is less about how we are going to muddle through the current crisis, we will somehow, its more how are we going to react the next time? Lets face it we probably won't exceed the number of excess deaths this winter that we experienced in 2014/5 (about 44k) let alone those of of the 90s when we had 3 winters in fairly quick succession of over 45k. With lower populations as well.
This virus should be a wakeup call to Western nations to have a mature conversations about the fact that we all need to take responsibility for our own health, and we cannot rely on everyone else (via the mechanisms of the State) to protect us from our own folly. These sort of viruses are predominantly an illness that kills the elderly, but if you have abused your body your risks of dying from it are far higher even at young ages. We have all come to assume that regardless of how little we care for our own health everyone else will have to chip in via socialised medicine to save you. And we have also come to assume that life runs on rails - everyone gets to live to 80+ regardless. This virus is telling us that situation cannot continue. Everyone is responsible for looking after their own health, and if you don't don't expect anyone else to either. And life isn't fair - you may work all your working life only to succumb to a virus such as this before you've even started your retirement. Such an outcome is an individual tragedy, but does not threaten society as a whole. It is only existential threats to society as a whole that can merit society as whole taking on such a burden as we are trying to do today. Todays reaction cannot be repeated every decade or so, we collectively cannot afford it. So the conversation about next time needs to start now.
ONS data, released yesterday, show deaths in Week 14 nearly 5,000 over the previous maximum for that week in the decade 2010-2019.
Areas where the facts are sullied by statements such as 'where Covid is mentioned' (cause of death) do nothing to convince the sceptical that the death rate is anything other than normal and daily/cumulative death figures give zero base reference so can be claimed to be whatever they want them to be.
Other than this unnecessary shut down of our lives we hear nothing about the banks - services that used to be mentioned on a daily basis are now ignored (hidden?) for some reason.... The issue over effective treatment (HCQ) is ignored/suppressed and the underlying mistrust and anger over these neglected subjects is ramping up.
Another three weeks of this? Screw that. When the riots start I'll be cheering them on and if plod gets a good kicking so much the better.
THIS is what stupid, disjointed, scaremongering, deceitful abuse of the public trust lowers us to.
I think I'd rather be facing WW3 than the cnuts we currently have 'leading' us.
The relaxing of lock down should not be by region or job etc. but by age as I see that deaths for those infected by the coronavirus are 0.4% and lower for those aged 49 and younger.
Thus those people who are younger than 50 and have no underlying health issues should be allowed to work, socialise, exercise etc. provided they have no contact with older people or only have contact with them using the current lockdown rules.
So, for instance, primary schools could open for the children of parents who are aged less than 50 provided all the teaching staff are also less than 50.
Factories, shops and offices could be initially staffed only by those below 50 in order to re-start the economy.
This relaxation of lock down by age would be a temporary measure in order to be able to slowly reduce restrictions in such a way that NHS intensive care does not become suddenly overwhelmed.
If/when we find after a couple of weeks that the NHS is coping then the restrictions could be eased for the next older group, such as those in their 50s. Followed 2 or 3 week later by easing the restrictions for those in their 60s etc..
Your central point is absolutely wrong.
There is a division of opinion across the world. Some governments are attempting the so-called herd immunity policy, that is, pathogen-mediated selective genocide. That would appear to be the US, and from behind a façade, the UK's too, along with Brazil etc.
Others, such as those of the European Union - but not Sweden so far - Norway, Canada, Russia, S.Korea, Aus, NZ, Japan etc. are hoping to eradicate the virus by a) tight lockdown until most infected people become non-infectious b) followed by rigorous mass testing, contact tracing and isolation of sporadic cases or of possible cases.
Greece only had one death on Monday, and no day with more than ten. And it bore the brunt of the refugee crisis.
The mass manslaughter by recklessness, of the US and UK governments requires appropriate redress.
"the so-called herd immunity policy, that is, pathogen-mediated selective genocide"
From Wikipedia, genocide is variously defined as ...
- the concerted, coordinated effort to destroy any human group or collectivity as it is defined by the perpetrator.
- the destruction of an ethnic group
- the extermination of racial and national groups
- The crime of genocide should be recognized therein as a conspiracy to
exterminate national, religious or racial groups.
etc
You obviously don't have the tiniest idea what the word means.
BTW, since everything is going so well in Greece, we should just copy their clever plan ... which is what, exactly?
I'm just wondering when the troll's raging, psychotic hatred of US/UK will peak.
The troll's China fetish didn't seem to last long.
The current phase of outbreak, up to early May, will probably result in about 20000 dead from about 10% of the population being infected. So to get herd immunity we will need to accept about 100,000 dead.
It doesn't have to be this way. South Korea has shown that the virus can be beaten back and held back with public mask wearing, robust contact tracing, quarantine etc. Sure it's painful, but much less so than 100,000 deaths.
It shouldn't need stating that a Britain where everybody's movement is tracked by a compulsory NHS phone app will be a lot more prosperous and normal than one where hundreds of people are daily dying of C19, and most other health conditions are ignored because hospitals have become disease hotspots.
JPM said : 09:32
'The mass manslaughter by recklessness, of the US and UK governments requires appropriate redress.'
And what of China in all of this mate? Was is not their 'recklessness' that got us into this - playing God with pathogens not serious enough for you? Why did the CCP lock down Hubei Province to the rest of China but not the rest of the world? They knew how deadly it was back in November (theoretically long before that). What's driving you to make such stupid statements is political hatred of those with different views. If this had happened under Obama and Blair we wouldn't have heard a squeak from the Left. Twelve thousand in the US died of SARS whilst Obama went on a golfing holiday. SARS came from China.
You're full of shit mate, and hatred of you own kind. Psychotherapy is your only recourse.
Steve
DJK - Yeah of that scale; at 1% lethality on 60% of 67m it's 402,000, if only 0.5% lethal half that. That assumes a uniform lethality.
However, if it's only 0.1% lethal for under 50s, the case is altered. From the 2011 census, 65.2% of the population is under 50. So we can aim for a lethality of 0.1% x 60% x 67m = 40,000.
The moral question is whether accepting an increase from 600,000 to 640,000 deaths in 2020 is better than the alternative(s).
And we desperately need those antibody tests to see whether that 10% guess is justified and find exactly what the lethality %age really is.
Steve 11:36, SARS was 2003 pre Obama. You mean the "swine" flu. yes, he was a full 6 months late for that one!
Oh come on people, you know perfectly well that there's only one measure to look for. That's the number of people being infected going below the number being discharged.
That's it, bog all else matters.
They'll need to see that for a period of time (about 5 to 7 days it seems), then relax the lockdown.
As Leg's has said over and over, we'll all get the virus. No ifs or buts and although China has started human trials with two vaccines, they've still to go through the approval system, so may - at a push - be ready for winter. Our people say any they develop will take until early 2021.
The mortality figures are so inconsistent as to be virtually useless. The only ones that help are those that record deaths because of the virus; not the one's that record with the virus.
And no, they're not all loved old people; many are at end of life and actually welcome release from what's a piss poor existence. Some loathe their relatives for not allowing them to go... until now.
Bear in mind that some of antiques are valued for their pensions and naff all else.
Exceptions seem to exist, yet no postmortem exams are being conducted at the moment that almost invariably would show there was a preexisting condition.
Patience is all that's needed. Get them out faster than they come in. And because they don't want a flare too quickly, they'll stick with social distancing and masks in public.
Span Ows said @ 11:45
'Steve 11:36, SARS was 2003 pre Obama. You mean the "swine" flu. yes, he was a full 6 months late for that one!'
I stand corrected: Swine Flu Pandemic 2009/10. Thanks.
Steve
Comparing humbers of this and that on a country basis is currently just moaning and/or politicking. Until all the figures are in and standardised, such comparisons are scientifically worthless. After all is said and done, the swine of the media - Piers Morgan at the front, please - can declare their winners and losers. And the losers will be declared to be our Orange Friend and the Heartless Tories.
About 12 months from now, an adequate vaccine might be available. Probably before then an almost adequate one will be rushed through for inclusion in next winter's "flu jab" profile. This will be finessed and improved over the coming year or two as the RNS virus mutates and squirms its natural way about the place. Meanwhile a very great many fit and normal people will have had it, lots of them asymptomatically - and will have developed a natural though imperfect and temporary immunity. Like flus and colds, we will all from time to time encounter this new enemy and a very few of us will encounter it when old and/or sickly.
NB If you are old or sick, ask your doctor for a flu jab next year.
For discussion:
Should the flu jab be a requirement for working in hospitals, old folks homes or in the care industry.
We are constantly told we are crashing the economy to keep the more vulnerable alive, this is an easy step that would mitigate the death toll from winter flu, which in previous years was worse than Corona virus now and nothing was done.
Meanwhile, English farmers are flying in 'unskilled' Romanians by the charter-load to teach locals how to harvest vegetables quickly and efficiently.
How did they get around Pritti's points system? Unless they are being paid a boat load of cash.
There's more grunty weather ahead so keep your hats on!.
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