The Wuhan virus will not only change the world, it is set to provide evidence for scholars of social and economic theories for the next century. How many times have you heard economists say in the past "Haha yes it's only theoretical - we can't know for sure unless we experiment on an entire national economy"? Well, now we can. One of the glories of the diversity of national responses across the world is that they range across the entire spectrum.
At one end we have the big State authoritarianism of China and North Korea - curfew breakers shot, an iron fist of State control, people walled up in their dwellings, total command of the economy and no role for private enterprise in solving the crisis. At the other end we have the US, a nation whose collective mistrust of the State and federal structure together with a loosely regulated economy and patchy coverage of the healthcare system has meant a massive and immediate economic impact - and to Trump's chagrin, he doesn't have the power to control the Covid measures. Under the US constitution, public health measures are the responsibility of state governors. The federal government has issued 'guidelines' but they're not compulsory. Then we have Sweden, now far less certain about its laissez-faire approach to the virus as the bodies pile up. And between the extremes we have the mass of middling-State nations, including most of Europe.
Comparisons are not just body counts, of course. Economies will have various degrees of resilience, flexibility, responsiveness, survivability and agility, different patterns of trade, different mixes of manufacturing and services, differing resource supply patterns and the impact of the recession and recovery from it will also depend on the same social and economic systems.
And then of course there's demography. Young nations with educated, mobile, deployable workforces and low proportions of unproductive olders to be cared for as fragile and vulnerable porcelain, against those with less capable workforces, older populations, lower educational and trade knowledge infrastructures.
So which nations will win out? Which countries are the future? Where will the young be best placed to create a stable, secure and prosperous future for themselves and their families? Will it be authoritarian China or chaotic America?
25 comments:
It is still odd to see we are living through history being written. I know events happen every second of every day but here is a major hsitroy book chapter in any language. It is unique. Plagues have happened before, Mark Steyn has been doing a audio of Daniel Defoe's A Journal of the Plague Year re the bubonic plague in London (The Great Plague), whether it is factual or fution is still debated in literary circles but it is amazing the similartiteis in many aspects of today.
Will this be the second or third chapter on what led to WW3?
On another point, the world had many many warnings, very specific in fact, about the possible problems of escaping viruses fron China, coroanavirus, from bats etc etc. China as a nation has gone from hero to zero very quickly...except for a few stragglers in the USA who are still blinkered by Trump Derangement Syndrome. China spent so much time and money buying up so much worldwide (probably own as much land as the size of continental Europe at least) and now their money will be all on bribes to maintain their position but the combine dweight of 'The West' will win over.
And then of course there's demography.
'Olders' may be unproductive in some countries... but they are also consumers helping drive the economy, and they are often savers or pension plan holders who help regulate the economy. Plus in some cases they provide childcare for their grandchildren.
Complicated, isn't it?
The more we hear of Trump's efforts to MAGA the more we see and hear of obstacles placed in his path and giving rise to the growing belief in the existence of the Deep State as his nemesis.
Trump spoke of HCQ along time ago and even his own 'advisors' detracted from the idea. Same with efforts to bring the soldiers back, bring manufacturing back etc. Always interference. If it's not impeachment it's simple betrayal.
Questions need to be asked of Boris's recovery and whether HCQ played a part. Our own Deep State (aided and abetted by qthe corrupt and 'owned' media) work together to drive us in directions that are clearly against our wishes and visibly erroneous in intent and application. It's not the 'state' that's forcing us down this path - it's those in control of the state. And it's not the public who SHOULD be in control.
When your house is ablaze you need a proper fire engine, just like many countries have sent to the crisis. The UK Tories have sent a cIown car, on oval wheels, with jokers running about in checked pants, and throwing buckets of feathers around. And five weeks after it started.
JPM said @ 10:56
'The UK Tories have sent a clown car, on oval wheels, with jokers running about in checked pants, and throwing buckets of feathers around. And five weeks after it started.'
I'm pretty sure the word Tory only applies this country, so 'UK Tories' is meaningless mate - a bit like your life.
Tory n. (pl. -ies)
1. a member or supporter of the British Conservative Party.
Steve
Not so much a blazing house as pouring petrol on the fire.
Isolation of Hospitals and the vulnerable (retirement homes etc) and leave the rest of us to our won devices would do far, far less damage to people and/or the economy.
Clearly the 'plan' our betters have for us isn't quite ready to roll out hence the delay in restoration of normality.
The implication that Labour might have done better in such a situation though is beyond parody.
Neil Ferguson, as much as I dislike him, has a good piece on this in the Speccie. His conclusion is that the US and China both lose, with small states the clear winners.
Our own SAGE and PHE, who claimed to have spent several years preparing from a pandemic, have proved to be mostly useless. If we're comparing different countries to see what works, I would say that South Korea wins, both for very low death rates and keeping the economy going, with Germany being the European winner.
One day there will have to be an enquiry to determine why the UK fared so poorly. Nobody here will come out looking good.
DJK,
Some opinion is that the US figures are very.good in comparison
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/14/coronavirus-case-and-death-counts-in-us-ridiculous/.
The Donald has been hemmed in.
Remeber when he put in the Chinese travel ban, 95% of the press and our own BBC were screaming Wascist ( & we were still getting plane loads every day) so to a large extent, the answer to everything for 75% of published opinion is going to be Orange Man Bad
Look at this country.
For doctrinaire reasons, councils are forced to out-source building regulation, and these "consultancies" themselves are tied up with construction.
The result is that we have five million people living in homes exposed to similar risks as caused the Grenfell Tower outrage.
Then the US - where airworthiness certification was outsourced in a like manner, effectively back to Boeing - and we have planes falling out of the sky.
Is it any wonder that these two are near the bottom of the league in tackling CV effectively and in saving lives?
The Anglo-Saxon, Tufton Street, economic model is shown to be absolutely Donald Ducked, as it always was.
As things stand the USA is a fair way off the peak and it is a pretty high peak too. A reasonable expectation is that the US will need another 40 days or so to reach the levels Spain/Italy/France are at now. Even from there it is a long ride. Donald is - well Donald.
This is likely to impact the rest of us getting back to normal trade, when the US catches a cold etc. The US may even use its clout to hold back the easing of travel in order to hold back China's head start. Plenty of room to worry. There are already nutters with assault rifles on US streets and rumblings of food shortages.
I think we can forget North Korea, a non-economy.
Looking ahead post Covid19. China has plenty of multi billion $ business people. So no real reason why entrepreneurial capitalistic business cannot develop there, and it does. Looking around, controlled authoritarianism seems to suit the Far East. Even our own democratic governments may be casting envious eyes.
The deep question is why is the USA so successful and can that success be replicated and extended. I think there is a clue in the numbers of clever people who queued up to work in the USA over the last 150 years. China is not likely to be more than a big factory until bright people from Australia, Europe, India, Israel, Japan, the USA and the rest are queuing up to work there. She needs the hybrid vigour of foreigners, that will take more than a visa program.
Fucked, as compared to the Eurozone?
Had a quick look at covid assigned death per million population (as of 17th April. Statista.com if anybody wants to look).
We're 5th worst behind Belgium, spain, italy & France. Netherlands, Switzerland and Sweden, then USA at 9th.
China is 57th, with 3.33 per million population. This of course is absolutely true.
Let the pandemic run its course, then we can see who handled it best.
What the butchers bill will turn out to be if it gets a proper grip in India, South Africe and third world shitehole is anybodies guess.
Winnie the pooh might even amass a higher body count than Mao.
She needs the hybrid vigour of foreigners, that will take more than a visa program.
Anyone who really knows China or the Chinese know this won't happen. I think they are probably the most racist people. Arabs a close 2nd.
Looks to me like Germany will be the best bet. Particularly if they manage to avoid having to bailout southern Europe, and even more so if southern Europe ditches the EU and they are left just dominating northern Europe.
But then - like them or not - German politicians/administrators seem to be pretty competent. Unlike ours.
Been watching Sweden and they're still coping fine, much as their advisor warned. Many deaths however amongst the Somali economic migrant community, that's not uncommon anywhere that houses migrants in large numbers.
Nicaragua could be filed as adopting a similar approach - and may be the correct one simply because their health infrastructure is unable to offer a satisfactory response to a full blown pandemic.
Then there's Brazil, number 3 on the let it be list.
In Europe Belarus is a little mentioned number 4, saying vodka and saunas will sort the problem.
It's good that we have some comparisons, because the herd response, to "follow the advice and yah yah of the WHO" does reduce the initial spike of infections, but also extends the duration of the crisis for years.
Those that absorb the initial hit will see a larger number of fatalities, however that's it and it peters out in a matter of months.
That's why China has thrown much cash into getting a vaccine asap - two have been developed and they're on the human trials phase already. That and a reliable antibody test are crucial before we go into winter.
"Haha yes it's only theoretical - we can't know for sure unless we experiment on an entire national economy"?
havent we done the experiment to death
nazi germany soviet russia maoist chona cambodia east germany north korea cuba venezuala all disasters
@Conservative Home reckons the Germans should manage the NHS
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2020/04/when-the-virus-crisis-is-over-we-will-have-to-look-at-what-the-nhs-can-learn-from-germany.html
Sweden could emerge from this economically streets ahead of the rest of Europe, with only approximately the same per capita proportion of deaths. That will make the UK in particular look silly for crashing their economy.
For calm, accurate facts without a panic dimension, see Hector Drummond.
The post-mortem on Boris' Operation Gasp is not looking great. The Govt. 'spin' on all those (failed) new-design ventilators is that the 'clinical need' changed from the initial specification. Pity they didn't go directly to the experts to scale up the manufacture of existing designs. Perhaps they placed too much reliance on Mikey's disdain of experts.
As for those hi-tech border customs posts ....
Now, let's see which nations are going to win out.
Drive in testing stations? Deserted.
Nightingale hospitals? Empty.
Massive temporary morgue? Unused.
Hospitals Overwhelmed? Not nearly.
Death-by figures? Fabricated.
Ignorance of HCQ as a solution? Total.
Scaremongering and public control? PERFECT.
Oh, and they nearly made me fall for it too......
Pre-virus economic meltdown caused by the banks? Excused.
Dave_G...yep.
"We know what to do, but getting elected again afterwards is the problem". This is the Tories' lockdown exit problem, there is no nice way out. In bare terms they will have to condemn some number to death if we are to have any economy left. Not a good electoral message come 2024/5, but the alternative may be worse. A cleft stick, but the French and Germans seem to cope. May need to stiffen the sinews.
Something odd about this disease. People do not seem to develop immunity - or at least measurable antibodies post recovery. The human body's immune response does not seem to be sufficiently stirred up. If true then the implication is that a post infection test and even a vaccine may be difficult to produce or be of poor effectiveness. These things rely on a stirred up immune response.
The Chinese say they are in clinical trials with their vaccines. What trick have they discovered if any. Yet China's death rate seems to have fallen to almost zero. Why are they not dying like flies. South Korea, Austria, Australia, Norway and Japan all seem to have the disease under control. What is it about these nations, what can we learn from them.
If it is merely quicker lockdown and tougher social isolation - well that is not much of a solution. The idea of strong monitoring and ongoing social distancing looks unattractive and riddled with problems (in the democratic West). The implications for international trade and travel look pretty dire.
I think we will end up having to live for a longish time with a disease that will come in waves to kill off the vulnerable. At least seeing all one's savings disappear down the care home plughole may become a thing of the past.
With no reliable data, all decisions are guesswork. One thing I know for certain is that without a tax base, we are going to go off a cliff. The meter will run out, then what? Serious problem that needs to be addressed right now.How do we get the people in charge to wake the f up. so frustrating.
jim, 12:31 "What trick have they discovered if any."
They had a year's head start.
Countries that look to have a hold on the virus are those that declare true deaths and not 'anyone' that simply has it but dies of unrelated causes.
There isn't enough emphasis (talk) about the economic issues that are being hidden and/or excused by the virus and we have yet to learn of our fate when Boris pops his head back up and announces our future.
I suspect there is a lot more to learn about this virus - it's true origins and purpose - before the year is out but guaranteed that some people/countries are going to extract the maximum return from it regardless.
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