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Thursday 23 April 2020

Well fancy that ..

Following a previous post in which I outlined the early and sketchy evidence from China that suggested that smokers had some immunity to Covid-19, the phenomenon has gone European. Austria of course is the chain-smoker of Europe, and smoking in bars and cafes was only banned at the beginning of this year, greatly to the annoyance of the regulars at my local gasthaus.

Fags here are just over £4 a packet - unlike the UK, smuggled cigarettes from eastern Europe cannot easily be stopped, and though the health fascists would dearly love to tax at UK levels, they know that not only would it not reduce smoking but the government would lose tax.

As the Guardian reports, a study at Pitié-Salpêtrière hospital in Paris revealed that only 4% - 5% of Covid-19 patients were smokers, when 25% - 30% of the general population smoke. So compelling were the findings that nicotine patches are now to be issued to patients and frontline health workers.

There is no confirmation that nicotine is the prophylactic agent, and the science is still out, but it's just possible that the nicotine fascists whose campaign against smoking (justified) has been extended to a 'war on tobacco' (no justification other than joyless bansturbation) will have nicotine vape blown in their faces. If, and it's an outside chance, some other component of burning cured tobacco leaf is responsible, the race will be on to produce it commercially. BAT, Imperial, Philip Morris and Altria will be happy.

Quinine and caffeine are also alkaloids. There's some evidence that the former has a prophylactic effect, but no suggestion as yet as to the latter. 

Update
======
Christopher Snowdon in Spiked on this is well worth reading - and a savage condemnation of Public Health England and their fellow lying zealots whose lies will have cost lives. These fools must be indicted.  

Once again, Libertarianism wins out over authoritarian stupidity.

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think I'd prefer a LARGE gin & tonic, efficacious or not, to smoking 'twenty a day'!

Bernard said...

St. George he was for England,
And before he killed the Dragon,
He drank a pint of English Ale
Out of an English flagon.
.
Cheers Raedwald.

Sackerson said...

Perhaps the virus binds to smoke particles.

Raedwald said...

Sackerson - here's also evidence that those living in areas of high PM2.5s (i.e. very small smoke particles) are at increased risk of Covid-19 - but again, there's no science that says it's the smoke particles rather than NOx or whatever. So anything is yet possible

This is a matter for data and statistical analysis, and to my sceptical mind nothing is proven until it has an R2 of 0.9 (and I suspect that folk just coming to terms with the epidemiological R0 will be puzzled to find that the Coefficient of Determination R2 is completely different ...)

Dave from Bolton said...

One idea mooted was that the virus 'rests' in the throat (hence the dry cough) before moving on to the lungs. In this spot, it would regularly receive a high dose of nicotine, or whatever, from smokers which might impede its progress. If that is the case, then patches would be ineffective.

Raedwald said...

Dave - that may be the case, in which nicotine dispensed from something like an asthma inhaler would work instead. The problem is that nicotine is also poisonous - though a relatively large dose is needed ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3880486/ )

DiscoveredJoys said...

There's lots of substances that may work, and some limited evidence that some will only be effective during the early stages of infection. There is also limited evidence that some (ordinary) medicines might be effective in the later stages.

And yet, for all the interest, few people modify their consumption of nicotine, or vitamin D, or gin and tonic, or Quercetin to avoid the ordinary Flu.

Project Fear is alive and well and has moved on from the Perils Of Brexit.

Dave_G said...


How do nicotine facts stand up against conventional influenza/flu strains? Are smokers less susceptible to normal seasonal illnesses too?

I suggest that this w(sh)ould in fact be the case given the transmission route is identical.

Some interesting facts being disclosed here:

Some things you're not being told

Raedwald said...

Ah, DJ, but as 40% - 75% of folk (dependent on age) get a flu jab every year, giving them a good chance of personal immunity and guaranteeing national herd immunity, few people need to alter their normal behaviour for flu.

Span Ows said...

Dave_G, Iain is very good. He blogs at: https://in-this-together.com/coronavirus-lockdown-and-what-you-are-not-being-told-part-2/

I would lean towards the throat 'prevention mention' of smokers. That said, it may not be the nicotine. I wonder if Listerene garglers or cayenne pepper for sore throat activists are similarly protected?

Of maybe the virus gets as far as the tar and thinks 'fuuuuck' and gets the hell out :-)

James Higham said...

I believe in all of em - smoke, G&T remedies, coffee, ale, out in the sun - all good.

Nigel Sedgwick said...

Presumably e-cigarettes are an easily available applicator of nicotine to the throat, nose and lungs. All that needs to be known is whether this kills (or sufficiently inhibits) Coronavirus-SARS-2. That could be determined quickly by in vitro tests.

No new tests required for adverse effects, nor really new knowledge for dose - for something available over the counter (at least to adults). No prescriptions required. Just substantiated knowledge of efficacy!

Best regards

Span Ows said...

Rod Liddle again in thsi Friday's mag:

"In its bulletin ‘Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report’, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied the backgrounds of 122,653 American Covid-19 patients, primarily to highlight underlying medical issues which might worsen the effects of the virus. Smoking was one of these — and indeed, as you might imagine, the report suggested that for smokers the outcome of contracting the virus tended, by a small percentage, to be more serious than for non-smokers. However, what the researchers chose not to highlight, but which was nonetheless present in the figures, was that smokers comprised just 1.3 per cent of those who had presented with the virus, when the approximate proportion of the US population who smoke is 14 per cent. Age differences between smokers and non-smokers would make this disparity all the more stark."

Nessimmersion said...

Might be similar to high altitude climbers smoking to improve oxygen transport, if the virus impairs ability of body to take up oxygen.
Nicotine, poison is in the dosage, like dihydrogen monoxide, if it wasn't good for you it wouldn't be added to breakfast cereal- niacin!

Anonymous said...

Happy St. George's Day

Habbaþ gōdne dæg.

Steve

Anonymous said...

Surely it's more a case of Wuhan Flu targeting tedious old bastards, and smoking having already culled the old bastards down to the proportion that won't die of anything less than a bullet in the brain ...

(I am a tedious old bastard at 72, but not a smoker)

Anonymous said...

Nessimmersion. Had never heard of the relationship between smoking and high altitude sickness before, but it would seem to make more sense than anything else I've heard. Interesting, thankyou.
M.

Anonymous said...

The new hydroxychloroquine (sp?).

Brexiters really are suckers for snake oil.

Span Ows said...

Anonymous 16:31, "new" hydroxychloroquine? The old one works...or weren't you aware?

Your 2nd sentence shows the reason you posted a comment, troll.

Smoking Scot said...

Facts from China, the USA and now France are indeed surprising and irrefutable; the best I can say is don't take up smoking if you intend to use it to self medicate and if you were planning to quit, then put it off for a while.

My guess is any protective effect is most likely very similar to any herbal like substance, it builds up within your body over time, hence my suggestion to not start. Nor is it likely to be one single component, so I very much doubt a patch, or gum will help. It's a lung thing, so if it is just nicotine, then those who vape may benefit, however that's not something they're asking patients.

Anonymous said...

@Span Ows 17:02

Not sure of your definition of the "old one works". To achieve what?

Check out Fox News who know a thing or two about snake oil.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/dr-fauci-shuts-down-fox-and-friends-on-coronavirus-cure-says-we-dont-operate-on-how-you-feel

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said @ 16:31

'The new hydroxychloroquine (sp?).

Brexiters really are suckers for snake oil.'

Novartis wins approval from FDA to start hydroxychloroquine clinical trial

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/20/novartis-wins-approval-fda-start-hydroxychloroquin/

Are you related to that other wanker, JPM?

Steve

Nessimmersion said...

Indeed, it goes all the way back to Catain GJ Finch on the Everest expedition of 1922.
Unfortunately smoking has become so politicised & polarising that all opinions on it are sufficiently contaminated to render a neutral assessment impossible( I'm not a smoker but etc etc, leads to a huge amount of virtue signalling before any study can begin)

Anonymous said...

@Steve at 20:04 and @Span Ows

Steve's article refers to the start of clinical trials. Report back when efficacy is proven.

While you are waiting, are you going to be stocking up on injectable disinfectant?

Times up tough. Your blood pressure is probably high. No need to get all sweary Steve. A bit of Boris' sunny disposition will see you through!

Mark Grenon said...

@Raedwald

Please contact Genesis II in Florida for some of our miracle mineral solution. President Trump reckons its a winner.

Anonymous said...

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=covid+19&term=hydroxychloroquine&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
amazing how widespread gullible brexiteers are worldwide;
133 clinical trials; across germany, slovenia, pakistan, south korea, spain, netherlands, france, mexico,brazil, france china, jordan, south africa, iran, iraq, tunisia, thailand, australia, colombia, norway turkey, canada, denmark. hong kong, israel, russia egypt, austria, croatia, greece, italy

Ed P said...

The troll has departed, hopefully for good.

Perhaps she/he/it/ze/whatever is back under its bridge?