We all knew that the Robbins Plan was dead in the water. It was rejected by the EU and Mrs May's own colleagues, by the intelligent press and by grassroots Brexiteers long before Mrs May started packing for her trip to Salzburg. Everyone knew, it seems, except Mrs May herself. Her evident open shock and distress at yesterday's rejection made clear she actually believed beforehand that it had some realistic chance of success.
And whatever one's regard for Mrs May's intellect or her judgement, it's impossible not to admire her tenacity and resilience. The sheer boorishness and bullying incivility of the EU capos yesterday will have sparked a tiny flame of resentment in the hearts of many non-Brexit Britons; she may be a bloody useless plank, but she's our bloody useless plank. Thank you, gents.
Likewise, many non-Brexit Brits will also have been irritated at being told that the EU capos want us to vote again, after they've smashed the windows and keyed the car and left a horse's head in blighty's bed. Malta is fast becoming a failed State, run by a criminal cabal with the island's politicians in their pockets, a place where inquisitive journalists can be murdered with impunity. I'd suggest Joseph Muscat would be better employed trying to restore justice and the rule of law to his mafia-fouled little country. And Herr Macron has been listening for too long to his granny's quavering fears.
The Federasts simply don't understand the 'hearts and minds' thing, do they? With every move they alienate more and more Brits, create greater hostility and make a future relationship more difficult.
Well, I can't tell you what the deal should be, but I'm confident there will be some last-minute accommodation, if we don't blink first. A Federast was quoted yesterday as saying 'don't think it's five minutes to midnight; it's more like half-past eight'. Well, I'd put it at about a quarter past ten myself, but point taken. Now will someone please convince Mrs May that we need a change of plan?
25 comments:
Whilst I agree with the overall thrust of your post Raedwald, I find it ironic that some of the wisest words on this mess came from the mouths of Manny Macron and Donald "the Don" Tusk.
Both told May that the "Robbins plan" was bollocks since it undermined their iconic and unique "single" market, and they were right!
We really have got a doozie on our hands, haven't we.
The British people told Treason May that the Chequers deal was not acceptable, long before she went to Salzburg. That should have been the end of it. We could not have had clearer proof that she isn't working for US.
I have no sympathy for her whatsoever. She brought this humiliation on herself by plotting with Rasputin Robbins to keep us half-in the EU.
She must go back to a Canada+ deal: completely out of the Single Market and Customs Unions and challenge the EU to force Ireland to impose a hard border. Or we leave under WTO.
There's been a lot of detailed negotiations about practical issues, so an agreement on trade, like Canada or Canada+ plus acceptance of a virtual border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland and we are done. It could be agreed, in principle, within a week if necessary. It's an agreement that I think would pass in Parliament.
If the EU want something else, tough. We'll go WTO and open border with ROI unilaterally. We can always negotiate fine details later without the artificial time pressure.
Yanis Varoufakis told us this would happen many years ago.
I like the guy and regularly read his blog.
In a nutshell, we have zero wiggle room, it's their terms, using their rules, in a game set up by them.
Theresa May reminds me of the old joke. How many psychiatrists does it take to change a light bulb?
It doesn't matter, the real question is, does the light bulb want to change?
By chance May may be following the right course, for now. By bending over backwards to accommodate the EU she has induced them to demonstrate their awfullnes. Thus when we get to the point of offering them the Foreign Office option the government will have more backing. Hopefully that stage will be handled by someone else, it's clearly not May's forte.
Smoking Scot--Bollocks. And the Greek leftist was neither use nor ornament to his country.
Radders--Your affection for a treasonous cow such as May does you little credit. She may be YOUR treasonous cow but what bothers me is that she will likely escape without punishment for her crimes. Lord Haw Haw was hanged for blathering shite on the radio. She has done far more to try and destroy this country.
WTO now and no deal since none is possible with scum. And May out on her fat arse in the most humiliating manner possible.
Remains in particular seem to forget that we already had a renegotiation with the EU. It was handled by David Cameron, and then he had us vote on it: Remain in the EU under the new terms; or Leave the EU.
The government and both the campaigns assured us that Leave meant leaving the EU treaties (and therefore leaving all the EU competences such as the CCP, EAW, CFP, CAP, CJEU, EMU, MFF, etc, etc). And no further negotiation or referendums.
Raedwald, I tend to think you have been taken in by the theatre. It is, of course, difficult to make predictions, especially about the future (Bohr, Berra, Steincke???), but here goes:
1. The Chequers (Robbins) Plan:
By far the most likely - with alterations, concessions, and added theatre of course. That's because Chequers has already been negotiated (behind closed doors) by our own civil servants with their "colleagues" in Brussels to secure a "Kit-Kat" Brexit. Mrs May is just the mouthpiece for this. She is ideal for the task because she is stupid, stubborn and a statist.
2. An extension of the Art50 process, with a "second" referendum:
The "second" referendum question will, of course, be rigged by the Remain establishment to secure a Remain outcome whatever we vote for. This is the next most likely scenario.
3. The WTO deal (erroneously called the "no deal"):
The least likely outcome by far (even though it is the one we voted for). It is essentially dead in the water. Despite the various government position papers there has been virtually no preparation for WTO trade with the EU. It won't get past Parliament (Remain majority about 500:100), and it will be sabotaged by our EU-corrupted civil service.
With a very heavy heart, I agree with Budgie. This whole post referendum crap has been managed by the likes of Robbins and colluded with by May and her remain cabals. It is exactly the process used to trap us all into voting for a lie that was the "Common Market". All the time Heath was being cajoled or even blackmailed into hiding the federal, real motive for negating the victory over the Nazis.
If may thought he "Chequers Plan" was going to fly she is stupid.
If she knew all along that it was not going to happen she was taking us for fools.
You pays your money and takes your choice. I think the whole thing has been a charade right from the off and there is a hidden agenda playing out nicely.
If we crash out with no deal then we will know that May really is truly stupid.
Interesting that the EU seem to be pushing the Canada +++ option that David Davis wanted.
Chequers AKA Norway-minus would have us shackled to EU rules and in the customs union without all the accoutremonts thereof including free movement of people. Being an unwavering pillar of the EU, membership of the EU or EFTA cannot happen without free movement being included.
Canada+++ gains us all the best bits negotiated by various countries outside the EU and solves the problem of dogmatic EU baggage.
A bit embarrassing pointing this out Radders regarding Macron: She's not his Granny, she's his wife...
Mikebravo said: "If we crash out with no deal then we will know that May really is truly stupid."
Why do you say "crash out"? What crash? Where is the "crash"? Where will we "crash" to? How will it be a "crash" to be in the same position with the EU as New Zealand is, or India? By using the phrase "crash out" you are merely repeating a emotive Remain propaganda term that of itself has no rationality.
As for the erroneous term "no deal", I assume you mean "no trade deal with the EU"? The best outcome by far, and what we voted for, was no treaty deals with the EU. It is best because we escape control by the EU - the goal of Leave. Do you trust the EU? Still?
As for the absurd "no deals at all", no-one has advocated that. It has been made abundantly clear that the government (and before them, the Leave campaign) expect to sign up to, or carry on with, international agreements for aviation (ICAO), fishing (UNCLOS), defence (NATO), trade (WTO), diplomacy (UN), etc, etc. And also sign RTAs with countries such as Australia, USA, etc.
Government should have ZERO say on trade terms and conditions. All that .gov offers is 'theft' by virtue of taxation on trade.
It is incumbent of BUSINESS to make their own arrangements for trade with whoever they see fit to trade with.
Since when did Government 'improve' trade in any way, shape or form? If the UK/EU would only STFU and allow the businesses to form their own trade arrangements there'd be no problem.
Go whistle!
I'm past caring or understanding what is happening, I just don't want corby gaining from the chaos as a Corby govt would destroy the U.K. quicker than the E.U. ever could.
Budgie,
Not going to argue over the meaning of words in common usage.
I do not mean trade deal as the so called withdrawal agreement excludes trade which for some reason has to be discussed after we leave and is presumably dependent on how much money we give them and how hard May et all allow them to fuck us.
The EU has set out what its position will be in its notices and I suspect that it intends to give us a hard time as a warning to others. If as some think, nothing will happen and all carries on as before then we will know that it was all a bluff and so will everybody else. Other countries can "just walk away" too when they decide to leave the new European Socialist Union.
If North is anywhere near correct in his analysis then it will be a very bad time, if he is wrong he will be a laughing stock.
As Bernard Connoly put it plainly: if we leave (I think he made the comment originally in the context of not joining the Euro) and they try to "get" us, they will be demonstrating themselves to be so irrational and out of touch with their true interests that some trade difficulties will be a small price to pay to be free of their clutches. I find this very difficult to argue with.
And if they want to "get" us, they can only be doing so to:
1. Wreck our economy to force us to come grovelling back.
2. Scare current members.
3. Just out of spite.
Whichever of the above will either work or it won't. And none of the above could be done without considerable damage to themselves ("punishing" Greece has been cost free hasn't it? And let's see what their threats to Hungary, Poland, Italy, Narnia, Mordor etc lead to).
If any of the above work but lead to a badly damaged UK/EU (how could they not), how is this going to result in a global superpower the political cliques seem to believe is destined?
Can you imagine what will happen if the resulting crippled (sorry, even more crippled) pseudo empire - with its politburo believing that it has just shown the world how "hard" and ruthless it is - tries to butt heads with China or the US? (Or Vlad come to that)
They can't just let us go and they can't, I don't think, depend of the likes of May doing their dirty work any more. On 30th March next year, we will not in their "law" be a member. Our own parliament will have to hand over power thereafter in the clear light of day. Those that do so will have no EU bolt holes to provide them with pensions and sinecures any more. Perhaps some of the less dense of them might begin to realise that there may be some personal/political advantage in serving the British people.
It was theirs for the taking 2 years ago, but fuck me, how they have fucked it up (totally, completely with ice cream and a break).
As they say in Europe, the British only ever win one battle in a war, the last one. I'm starting to think that battle they will be fighting amongst themselves.
I actually feel sorry for Mr Tusk, having to deal with this juvenile stupidity.
DisMay is no more than a camoron v2. After two years of "negotiating" she has achieved NOTHING and for precisely the same reason-she does not believe in what she is doing.
Her announcement yesterday was a word salad but towards the end she stated she must now prepare for an exit with no agreement,how would she do this? By ensuring EU citizens would be welcome and Northern island citizens would remain yUK subjects. That's it! that's the plan.
It is beyond obvious that the bureaucracy and politicals are far, far out of their depth having delegated the hard work to EU for the past fifty years they long for the lazy days of doing very little. Oh, how they wished they could have a second, third, or fourth referendum until the plebs finally "got it right" rejoined EU and everybodies sinecures were safely guaranteed.
Good luck yUK, and whatever you do ignore the Canaduh CETA, that is a disaster.
Mark and Cascadian, Very well said. I watched all of Theresa May's statement (separate from her post Salzburg press conference) and in it she failed to acknowledge any of the extensive concessions built into Chequers. Yet the MSM have gone along with the daft notion she has been "strong".
In the statement she didn't mention Chequers at all, concentrating on the UK not remaining in the EEA and ensuring the territorial integrity of the UK. So the Chequers concessions are a done deal, bar the theatre. And of course her useless Remain government has produced only waffle as "preparation" for a no (trade) deal, ie a WTO deal.
Mikebravo, I am concerned that we are using phrases that carry an implied, emotive or associated meaning, which is different to different people. So it is not a question of "Not going to argue ..." it is one of clarity.
The phrase "crash out" (of the EU) is in common usage. I still do not know what is meant by it. I'm not sure you know either. Which was my point.
The phrase "no deal" is commonly used in the MSM to mean "no trade deal". Not, as you claim, "no Withdrawal Agreement". If the latter is what you meant you should be more clear because people will understand the "common usage", not yours. Which is again my point.
Do not include me in your "some think nothing will happen and all carries on as before". Indeed I know no Leave voter who thinks so. We are, rather, hoping for the reverse.
Allow me to correct an egregious mistake in my comment above-Northern island should of course read Northern Ireland .
Reading further today it is becoming apparent how tenuous the major negotiators positions are-merkel, macron and may the three stooges. Are you ready for another PM DisMay strong and stable election campaign?
As previously stated, I believe yUKs salvation will be the collapse of the Euro, certainly the efforts of mays brain trust can produce nothing but appeasement.
I too am confident there will be some last-minute accommodation, but only because the EU is expert at stitching up plausible-looking last-minute deals that contain hidden traps or lethal threats.
It would be perfectly possible for Juncker to secretly organise either a member state or the EU parliament to stymie a last-minute deal he himself had 'brokered', once it had gone through the Westminster parliament. These are the characters we're dealing with. 1960s Moscow was a cinch in comparison.
Too much freak out here.
No deal is no problem. Our enemies were always the scum of the UK state BluLabour and ZaNu alike. Piss on both of them.
We need to be out of the ESpew. And then we need a shitload of treason trials. And then the battle with the wannabe Global Elite is on for real. No mercy and no quarter. They will give us none.
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