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Sunday, 1 December 2019

Where should Leavers vote for the Brexit Party?

This is the advice for Leavers given by the Telegraph; vote for TBP -
  1. If the Conservatives haven’t won the seat since at least 1992 (or since constituency creation);
  2. If Ukip beat the Conservatives, and gained a vote share of over 20 per cent, in 2015;
  3. And if the Conservatives got less than 30 per cent of the 2017 vote.
OK - so let's look at the two constituencies below

1. Labour have held the seat since 1974..
2. In 2015 UKIP came 2nd with 28% of the vote
3. In 2017 the Conservatives got 34.2%

Result: Vote Conservative

Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
1. Labour have held the seat since constituency creation
2. In 2015 UKIP came 2nd with 21.3% of the vote
3. In 2017 the Conservatives got exactly 30.0%

Result: Vote Conservative 

I think this is a fair and sensible algorithm for the Conservative and Brexit parties to use - what do you think? It's too late now for candidates to stand down, so it will mean the lower rated party must start campaigning for the other from now onwards.

Well, do we want to Leave or not?


Stephen J said...

Clearly the Telegraph has solved the issue, vote Brexit Party in the seats that the party didn't hand to the bloody tories except Uxbridge, where in order to avoid electing a serial liar, folk should vote UKIP.

People should vote for what they want, and I don't want another ten years of tory deceit.

DeeDee99 said...

The Conservative Party has spent the past month actively campaigning in these seats, which the Brexit Party stood a very good chance of winning if there was a unified Leave vote. They have driven up the Tory vote in an attempt to sideline the Brexit Party so they can force through their Brino, completely unopposed.

After 50 years of lies about the EEC/EU and 3.5 years of blatant treachery, they demand "droit de seigneur." Do you really not understand how arrogant that is, Raedwald?

JPM said...

The thing is, that of the seventeen million, a fair number of them are not raving, European Union hating fanatics above all else.

They just thought that on balance leaving might be "nicer".

This sort of stirring won't work with them.

Their other priorities might well be more relevant.

We'll see.

Dave_G said...

What has previous votes for UKIP got to do with the potential vote for the Brexit Party? Especially given the circumstances?

It might have been applicable in the results you quote for the last election but you can't conflate the two this time round Raed.

Given the availability of a vote for TBP I would definitely give it to them rather than any of the major parties. Once bitten and all that....

Mark said...

I held my nose today, and did something I haven't done since 1992 (I work away and had a postal vote). It is depressing to vote on the basis of which do I despise least.

There was no Brexit party candidate where I am. The fragrant Amber Rudd fortunately was not the candidate.

Tory, labour, limp dumps and an independent

Interestingly, on the ballot paper, the limp dump was "Liberal democrat - Stop Brexit", the others just used the party names.

Wonder how long ago that decision was made and if the lunatics who thought it a good idea still do.

John Brown said...

JPM @ 08:07 : “They just thought that on balance leaving might be "nicer"”.

I disagree.

A majority voted to leave DESPITE being told in no uncertain terms by the government, the PM, the Chancellor, all political parties bar UKIP, the civil service, the Governor of the BoE, the banks, the corporates, the CBI (“big business”), the POTUS, the IMF, the OECD, the Archbishop of Canterbury etc. that a vote to leave would bring economic disaster which included 500K lost jobs and an emergency budget (threat of higher taxes).

Those that voted leave made a conscious decision that freedom and democracy – the ability to influence our laws and policies (trade, fiscal, taxation, energy, environmental, foreign, military, immigration etc.) through retaining the right to elect and remove those who make these decisions – was worth the economic “hit”.

Had this now proven to be false economic scare not been so influential I expect the result would have been a far greater majority in favour of leaving the EU.

RAC said...

Considering that johnson first threw a deal back in Farrages face and then after Farrage offered the olive branch of standing down many TBP candidates johnson didn't do the decent thing and reciprocate.
I'd say bollocks to the greedy ***t, vote TBP every where every chance we get.

Ed P said...

The Lib-Dems were out in force in my town on Saturday (one of the safest Tory constituencies), telling porkies. They made the mistake of accosting me.
I've never before seen someone actually "step backwards" from speech - possibly from me saying, "You are neither liberal or democratic. You want to ignore the largest ever vote in this country and stay under the autocratic thumb of the EU. Why should anyone vote for you?"
There was no sensible answer of course.

APL said...

" given by the Telegraph; "

Huh! As if that means anything these days!

The Telegraph, an advertising rag with a gossip column tagged on.

y3g said...

I know Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford; have family there. It's not the kind of place where the Conservatives would win in my opinion - too many old mining families; however it's just the kind of place where The Brexit Party would win if the Tories were not standing.
I really hope I see Yvette Cooper out of a job though.

Cascadian said...

Smell the desperation of the BRINO party. Vote for us we will continue sending a 1,000,000,000 quid per month for the next decade to the EU while our amazing negotiators sit around having Mr Barnier run rings around them. The ECJ will continue to rule over us, the fishing stocks will continue to be plundered, the hapless home office will continue to release ISIS supporters as required by the EU, the environment ministry will sit with its thumb up its arse during flooding to please the newt people in the EU.

Trust us, say the CONmen we will bring you the northern powerhouse that camoron and georgie promised lo many years ago (and did exactly NOTHING).Trust us we can fix the NHS by thrusting pound notes into doctors bank accounts-the Attlee solution (that did not work) I believe.

The Telegraph take these voters for idiots, I trust the voters will reward them with a sound thrashing of the CONmen for their impertinence and arrogance.

I predict the polls are massively wrong similar to the USA 2016 election when the Hildebeast had a purported 92% advantage but all in the wrong places. CCHQ by some miracle (surely not competence) have stumbled onto the truth and recognize that massive advantages in the south mean nothing in the grand scheme, result-PANIC.

The CONmen have nothing to offer but Tracy DisMays warmed over BRINO and 1950s solutions that have previously failed, offered by a dishevelled liar who thinks massively expensive pedestrian bridges and bicycles are a great idea.

Algorithm for tactical voting says it all. Algorithm for continued servitude more like.

Here is an algorithm, do NOT vote for any party that has presided over the last seventy years of managed decline in yUK.

John Brown said...

RAC @10:41 :

I would guess that the reason Mr. Johnson didn’t (openly?) reciprocate was to try to hold onto as many remain voters as possible – those that believe a Marxist government is worse than Brexit.

steves said...

should vote brexit party everywhere Farage should have held his nerve so we could get rid of the tories as well Boris isn't gonna deliver brexit, his timetable will only be met with tying us to them his manifesto is as Marxist as everyone else

SG said...

Anonymous JPM said...
The thing is, that of the seventeen million, a fair number of them are not raving, European Union hating fanatics above all else.
They just thought that on balance leaving might be "nicer".

The thing is, JPM, that of the sixteen million, very few of them are raving, European Union loving fanatics:

“Among four possible reasons for voting Remain, ‘a strong attachment to Europe’ is ranked last by a sizable plurality of Remain voters, consistent with the claim that Britons have a relatively weak sense of European identity”.

A conclusion based on proper research carried out by Oxford University’s, Nuffield College, Centre for Social Investigation -

Rather more authoritative than the half-baked opinions of a driveling idiot.

Also take a look at why people voted to leave and, indeed, remain - let’s just say that your views are ‘atypical’.

SG said...

P.S. if Boris can keep the economy motoring over the life of the next Parliament, the above holds out some prospect of healing the leave / remain division - assuming he wins a working majority. If the latter is not achieved, then we will be entering very dangerous waters indeed.

Span Ows said...

"I think this is a fair and sensible algorithm for the Conservative and Brexit parties to use - what do you think?"

First I thought it ws (1) OR (2) OR (3), then I thought it must be a joke! Now I see it isn't I'll add a couple the mighty Telegraph list:

4) do you or anyone you know own a car? If so vote Conservative.
5) have you ever eaten a potato. If so vote Conservative.


Mr Ecks said...

If you hand power to remainiac shite by making kiddie-style emotional gestures because reality is what it IS rather than how you want it to be then we lose the lot and for good. Those vote-fixing cunts will see to that.

I don't trust Blojo--but ALL the rest are remain save TBP which isn't going to win or even make a big impact on current figures.

So not voting for the Tory's means you are voting for the fucking EU.

Lets get out with what we can--and reform to ensure Johnson can't cheat. If every Brexit supporter wrote just one fucking letter telling Johnson that we won't tolerate any tricks and mass disorder will follow if he tries it--that will do the trick. Best part of 20 million letters. But it seems that is too much work compared to voting to fuck up everything we achieved.

Wessexboy said...

With you on this Ecks, cannot believe people will go on blogs to post nonsense about supporting no-hopers and yet don't think of writing to MP and PM onve we have avoided the idiot Marxists.