France has the biggest State in Europe, with tax at the EU's highest rate of 48.4% of GDP. Her farmers and fishers are heavily subsidised by Europe's taxpayers and by raiding UK waters. These advantages are set to be challenged post-Brexit, and you can be sure that the EU budget process for the next seven year cycle will not have decided anything by June, the crunch date for the Brexit talks. Macron will obstruct and clog up EU deliberations, using his veto as required, until it is clear Barnier is unable to achieve his brief.
Macron's plan is that at this point the remaining EU26 will agree to bung even more wodge in France's direction to enable Macron to pay-off his farmers and fishers and soften pension reform. Add to this even more money that he wants for France now being the EU's only credible military member, for the 26 to buy into his seat at the UN and his Force de frappe. Then he'll agree an EU-UK trade deal.
However, if this much is apparent to us, you can bet it's also crystal clear to the Frugal Five (Austria, Denmark Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden) and particularly to Germany - whose taxpayers will have to pay for France's relaxed lifestyle. Will Macron win? Who knows. Now it's getting interesting.
| EU/EEA, the UK, San Marino, Monaco and Switzerland 2/3/20 | ||
| Cases | Deaths | |
| Italy | 1689 | 35 |
| France | 130 | 2 |
| Germany | 129 | 0 |
| Spain | 83 | 0 |
| United Kingdom | 36 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 24 | 0 |
| Norway | 19 | 0 |
| Austria | 14 | 0 |
| Sweden | 14 | 0 |
| Netherlands | 13 | 0 |
| San Marino | 8 | 1 |
| Croatia | 7 | 0 |
| Greece | 7 | 0 |
| Finland | 6 | 0 |
| Denmark | 4 | 0 |
| Romania | 3 | 0 |
| Czech Republic | 3 | 0 |
| Iceland | 3 | 0 |
| Belgium | 2 | 0 |
| Ireland | 1 | 0 |
| Luxembourg | 1 | 0 |
| Estonia | 1 | 0 |
| Lithuania | 1 | 0 |
| Monaco | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 2199 | 38 |
15 comments:
I suppose the outlandish demands of the EU were OK all the time we were paying for it?
Len Varadkar was very upset when he was asked to pay more for the wonderful advantages of membership, and lost his job trying to defend Ireland against such an imposition...
... Ireland?
Pay for something?
Whatever next?
Well the "Frugal Five" are going to have to learn to stand up for themselves now. They've had decades of leaving the UK to fight for some commonsense and restraint on their behalf - and then blaming us for not being "good Europeans."
France is rapidly becoming an ungovernable failed state. And I can't see Macron stopping it.
France has set impossible targets for the European Union's chief negotiator?
Come on, I thought that the nations were powerless against these "unelected dictators"?
Apparently not.
What do you mean "not elected"...?
People like Barnier are elected, just not by the electorate.
Can't blame the WeeMac for trying to protect himself under the guise of doing good for his fisherfolk.
But there's a depressing development with their budget proposals, a reduction in funds for front line countries tasked with protecting EU borders.
All countries with a Mediterranean or external land border have been asked to take a cut in their budget - and Malta, Cyprus, Greek islands and so on are already mighty pissed off at what they've experienced already.
Understandably they don't much care about knuckleheads going on about raiding British waters, especially as all the protagonists have effed their own fishing areas. They care about being flooded by loads of dependant people as well as the social issues involved.
Internal stress is building and there's many more than WeeMac who'll see their political aspirations dashed.
@Smoking Scot
A proto-Empire that has provinces immersed in austerity (Greece) and used to living an extravagant life (France) cannot hold together.
It is an inconvenient truth that 'fair shares for all' mean that the lifestyle of the wealthy has to be reduced to raise up the lifestyle of the poor. I don't think there has been enough social integration of the member states to carry this off.
It's all going rather pear-shaped for the EU, isn't it?
Brexit didn't start the process of EU collapse - the actual creation of the EU started it. It was NEVER going to work given its Communist aspirations and self-evident apparatchik construct - you'd think the obvious comparisons to the old USSR would be enough of a deterrent but people have short memories and need to re-learn the lessons of the past.
Creating a EU Army is, perhaps, the past gasp of a dying empire that seeks to use its own army to suppress internal dissent - if not by means of speech and thought suppression that is also becoming more evident. Yet again, another example of ex-Soviet modus operandi that adds another nail to the coffin.
(the 'coffin' that indicates you've caught a nasty disease)
Yes Dave, as Farage said "the euro will be dead and buried by Christmas 2012"
If I have any reason to remember Gordon Brown, then it'll be his decision to not take us into the Euro - and set criteria that were almost impossible to achieve.
That was a crucial reason why our departure was far less tricky than those national states that use the construct.
Brown understood it's very similar to a partnership inasmuch as they're all jointly liable for the liabilities, though very few do in fact benefit from this curious asset.
A very remote possibility is worth a second or two's thought. If France does relieve itself of the WeeMac and if Ms Le Pen does take up the hot seat, then will her party follow through with a Frexit.
Without France then the common currency will be in deep difficulties.
So let's get things into context shall we. Way back in the days when Farage made one of his many predictions, the Eurosceptic bloc in Brussels was minute, with Ukip one of the largest. He anticipated that would change. All he got wrong was his timing.
But that's a handle you can apply to virtually every politician of any stature.
However I much prefer to remember Brown's sop to the Scottish electorate. Two aircraft carriers, with a contract that could not be cancelled. One floats the seas around Britain without aircraft, between trips to home base to get things fixed.
@ DiscoveredJoys
The phrase that springs to mind is "robbing Peter to pay Paul". There's a very good reason why it remains popular in our vocabulary; Peter didn't much like the deal.
The Euro is dead, it just hasn't been buried.
The economic echoes from the Corona virus have yet to make their mark - although they are certainly pecking at the edges and the markets are being supported by (yet more) manipulation by the banks.
Who will fall first is anyone's guess - ideally (for everyone) is if they all fall together but Italy first?
Either way, it only takes ONE for the whole Euro debacle to end.
And as already mentioned, predictions of 'when' are difficult to make but a prediction of 'inevitable' is far easier to ascertain.
The Europeans themselves are paying for their currency. Never in my lifetime had I heard "negative interest rates". AbnAmro issued a flyer to their deposit customers that deposits up €250,000 will receive 0% interest, while those with 250k or more will get -0.20% deducted.
Maybe similar in Austria, Raedwald?
So keep on printing money through quantitative easing, buy up all the crappy debt, then restrict banks from lending without knowing everything about their customer and reams of bumph about why they want to borrow, with forecasts and timeframes for repayment.
Forget relationship banking, forget gut instinct, forget loyalty or growing your own. Just follow the correct procedures. Dumb.
So far too much cash sloshing around and no place to put it for banks who found their Central Banks will charge them for keeping it!
Little wonder stock markets have gone batshit nuts, why short term government bonds are also negative yield for quality and why alternative investments, like genuine classic cars and motorcycles have rocketed.
But it still suits Germany. They can issue bonds with negative interest rates, then lend the proceeds to other EU countries at 3 to 5%.
Was an observation made by Yanis Varoufakis way back when he was the Greek Finance Wallah.
I may not agree with his politics, but I have enormous respect for his views on economics. Oh and like any Greek, he screams like Lucifer when he knows he's being shafted. And from day one, he was correct about us Vs the EU in the B..... thing.
Greece has a score to settle with the Right in this country, and over far more than a few marbles.
Varoufakis is doing his bit very cleverly.
With the departure of the UK, the European Union is moving in strides towards his vision of it.
Your first para is far too nebulous and most likely irrelevant. Greece has a bone to pick with a whole stack of countries with the fiasco over the name of Macedonia being one. Plus reparations from Germany for what they did in WW2.
Said I couldn't give a flying fart about his politics and no he's not very cleverly doing Jacksy, except set up his own party and getting elected to Parliament. The advantage of PR donchyaknow.
They can fully integrate everything from top to bottom, left to right and the bit in the middle. The Netherlands, Poland, Hungary and so on may be forced to go along with their grandiose plans.
My personal opinion is none of them will.
They're doing fine as is. Russia and the USA know they're not a world power, however if they do become a real threat to either it will not be tolerated.
Recent actions by Trump re sanctions and NATO indicate the Yanks are in fact thoroughly pissed off at their parasitic approach to America and shrugging of responsibility.
Smoking Scot (surpised JPM hasn't had a snide dig that you are SS)
The other day I read an interesting article re 10 year US Treasuries (lower than 2% yield) UK sovereign gilt offer was only 0.5%.
"In other words lend HM Government £100 and receive 52p a year in interest"
Compared with the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate is zero...the 10 year German bund currently yields -0.5% and 30 year money attracts a current rate of zero. Not quite FUBAR...
"Similar yields can be observed throughout the Eurozone."
JPM "Greece has a score to settle with the Right in this country"
Why, what has "the Right" done to upset them?
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