For a start, the pollsters can't call election results at the moment. Well, not to within +/- 10%, anyway. One issue is that people interviewed on mobile devices are less honest than those the pollsters used to call on what are now quaintly called 'home telephones'. The other is that IVR has removed 2m people from the voting rolls who should not have been there and added a missing 2m who should have been.
I think the Halal-Labour swings will be less significant than thought but that Mrs May will still get a handbagging. Let's wait and see. The real test for me will be the turnout in the five test areas for voter ID. To those who aver that is no proven history of personation to justify such measures nationally, I say well, I'll bet you said that about child sexual exploitation in Rochdale, Telford, Oxford and all those other towns a few years ago. Not catching offenders doesn't prove that crimes aren't being committed.
For those of you who have been out on the stump for UKIP or Conservatives or whomever, well done; you are the backbone of democracy. Win or lose, you've already won.
Addition
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These are the comment settings, all that Blogger has available. If anyone knows how to make verification even less onerous, let me know. Blogger also sometimes decides that comments from regulars are 'spam' and since I only look at this once a week or so to free the poor trapped things I apologise for tardyness. I tried Disqus for a while but you all hated it.
32 comments:
I think the Tories are going to get a pasting........politics is NOT local in the UK:
The Maybot's reaction to the Grenfell fire;
The massively over-hyped Windrush affair;
Brexit (Remainers disgusted that she's going through the motions of leaving); Brexit (Brexiteers disgusted that she's doing all she can to deliver a BRINO);
People who might normally vote Conservative sitting on their hands because they are sick to death of the incompetence and shambles of the May Government.
"Not catching offenders doesn't prove that crimes aren't being committed."
Off topic but related. The authorities go out of their way to avoid prosecution of certain groups for crimes up to and including rape and murder.
The latest insanity.
https://www.gloucestershirelive.co.uk/news/gloucester-news/no-charges-after-slaughtered-sheep-264220
DeeDee99: "The massively over-hyped Windrush affair; "
Yes, half these so called victims have been in the UK and failed over a period of sixty years to apply for British citizenship.
That at a time when the UK authorities will hand out citizenship to a dog.
I think I will start a new political party for all those poor souls who have been left out of the political process.
The people that DeeDee99 highlights, those who are being badly served.
The people that used to really believe in Labour and the idea that it somehow represented the ideals of the shop floor worker. The people that are called racist for wanting access to the "services" that government has stolen your money to "provide", but then presided over (nay encouraged) mass immigration.
I think I will call it "The Apathy Party".
One big push and we can form an administration, we attribute all the wasted votes of the people who couldn't be arsed because politicians are in reality only in it for themselves and their own aggrandisement.
On the other hand...
I can't be bothered.
I quite like reading this blog Raedwald.
I like what you do and look forward to what you are going to serve up in the morning, I like the comments, even Greg/Jack's garbage.
What really gets up my nose though is the verification, about fifty street signs/cars/buses a day... It drives me to distraction..
I thought it was because I had chosen anonymity and I went back to being right-writes, but the endless screens still pop up...
It might make me stop going out of my way to drive past of a morning.
Can you not do something about this...?
Do other commenters have the same issues?
RW - see addition
Hello, I am very curious as to what will happen in Barnet. Labour say anti Semitic is not an issue they hear when on the doorstep. Funnily enough I wonder if this is true in Barnet. On paper Labour should walk it, in practice I think Barnet has the highest proportion of Jewish residents of any borough. Fascinating.
Thanks Raedwald, I am guessing that since you seem to be allowing any and all to comment, Google decides who should get the special treatment.
I suppose the only solution would be to require registered commenters only, and that is clearly not something that attracts you.
N.B.
A blogging friend of mine uses "Squarespace" and when I was considering my own blog, I looked at this, but it was expensive to use, however, he says that he has no issues with spammers and he doesn't require registration.
I'll 'guess' that those areas that require voter ID will have significantly reduced turnout..... unless, of course, those dubious voters have, instead, opted for a postal vote.
I wonder what the figures for postal vote applications is?
London is now a ZaNu lake because Londoners are outnumbered by migrants on benefits. Which is why the imports were imported.
Take the vote off them by making ANY migrant wait 100 years before being granted citizenship and the vote. Likewise their kids--in practice unless technology massively extends life it will be their descendants who get the vote-no vote until 100 years in the country and a clean record. Assimilated, no crime, no trouble of any kind. Otherwise out they go.
That would put a stop to the takeover as it would no longer be worth trucking in non-voters who annoy and upset those who can vote.
Make the law retroactive ( thanks for that precedent Bliar) back to 1997. Job done.
The other commenters are correct tho' that the stupid cow May has brought the kicking on herself. She has to go and a proper Brexit is the only chance now to smash Corbog.
They’re not giving us a vote around our way. Too much trouble I suppose.
We have imported and continue to do so, millions of people who wish us harm but only after plundering our hard won wealth. Elections are, as planned, or by happy coincidence, become a waste of time. Brexit a perfect example. The vote to leave won by a decent, theoretically democratic 4%. Now its the purview, we are told, of Parliament. You know, staffed and managed by a huge, self interested majority and bunch of europhiles.
Corbyn's likely path to Number 10 paved with ill intentions and bankrolled by the EUSSR and their love of all things Islamic and migrant.
I like the comments, even Greg/Jack's garbage.
Just to clarify,incase of confusion, I'm not 'Greg' and all my garbage is strictly my own :)
I post under 3 iDs depending on the site; The Blocked Dwarf, Unmarkedheli and this one.
Don’t go to discus. It’s better when it works but it does act up.
Halal-Labour *snigger*
I've never had a problem posting a comment. Thank you.
Steve
Raedwald, Sometimes the captcha photos are not clear or a bit of a puzzle, but your service is excellent so I don't mind the minor difficulties.
And yes I've been out leafleting for UKIP over the last few weeks, thank you. Only a few refusals: one man said "I'm a Labour councillor", so he wasn't a vote for us!! More positive reactions than in 2017, many frustrated at Appeaser May. Whether it translates into votes is another matter.
Shame about UKIP (not that I personally will shed any tears of course). Someone was quoted as saying that UKIP "were the most successful party of recent time" and that is right IMO. If they had concentrated on those issues that REALLY matter to the Great British Public post BrexSShite, like blue-passports printed in the yUK, imperial measurements, corporal punishment in schools, removal of the Nanny State etc they might have done really well I feel.
The only party that leafleted me was the LibDems and no one knocked on my door.
Jack Ketch, Well, that's rather better than Remains who don't have a clue:
why the EU should have legal supremacy over the UK;
what the EU does for us that we cannot do for ourselves;
why c89% of our economy should dance to the EU tune when only about 11% of UK GDP derives from exports to the EU;
how a supposedly sovereign Parliament can dispose of its own sovereignty to a foreign power;
why we bother with democracy if the people are not sovereign;
why the mess we’re in is due to Leave, when Remain policies are being implemented;
what this supposed long list of broken promises by Leave is;
why a second in/out referendum is valid, where the first was not;
why democratic decisions should be honoured except in this particular Referendum;
why the losing side in a binary vote should win;
why the UK cannot be independent with the same rights and opportunities as the other 165 nations on the planet which are not in the EU;
why the EU should have our fish;
why the UK should pay the EU more than we would have done if we had fully remained;
why the EU should control our defence, security and diplomatic policies;
why we should turn a blind eye to EU corruption;
why we won’t be caught by the enormous EU pension liabilities if we Remain;
why we shouldn’t be bothered about the NPLs in the EZ if we Remain;
why the likely non-payment of much EZ sovereign debt won't affect us if we Remain;
etc; etc; etc.
For once Budgie I wasn't taking the piss out of UKIP (and they do make it delightfully easy). Sorry if it sounded that way. I was serious about where IMNSHO UKIP have gone wrong-besides their having a leadership and Supreme Soviet that they HAVEN'T deserved. Not that I am any kind of UKIP expert but I count a couple of RL friends fairly high up in the party.
Your reply actually illustrates nicely what I think is the problem. UKIP are still fighting for BrexSSHite when that battle has been won and is old news. It may be that we get a brexit far softer, or in name only, than Kippers would like but, hand on heart, there is no realistic way UKIP can really influence that.
So they should have concentrated on the 'small c conservatism' of the Great British People....not on the 'local' or 'national' issues but on the supernational- those things that tend to unite Brits of all parties(blue passports being an example). What issue got Jim Hacker the PMship?
An utter disaster for the Labour Party of Corbyn: Tories kept all and gained Barnet in London the only one lost countrywide is Plymouth. The big loser was Ukip but Ukip voters have not gone away - just tactical voting to keep Labour out - Ukip voters can sink the Tories if Brexit is betrayed.
This is why I switched my site to WordPress.com (also free).
You can set one up, export from Blogger, Import to WordPress and then set up an automatic redirect on here so that anyone coming to the Blogger site gets a message that you've moved and after a few seconds is looking at your WordPress site.
It's up to you whether you then use free WordPress (as my Dioclese blog does) or get you own domain name and go flat out for the self hosting option (which costs). I've always found the free option more than adequate.
This is not a painful process and really doesn't take long. I set up the new Wordpress layout as I wanted it, then ex/imported all the Blogger posts and comments. I really is a lot better than Blogger. Much better controls. Google seem to be all over the place these says. I have continual problems since Google+ came in. Their integration seems to be a complete mess...
For what you're looking for, the 'First comment moderation' option will do the job in one click of the settings!
The analysis of the BBC’s polling expert Sir John Curtice, who said that the lesson for the Conservative Party from these results, was that the Government must “deliver on Brexit in a way that will satisfy the aspirations of Leave voters”:
"The Conservative Party has been reminded tonight that the electorate that it now has is disproportionately a Leave electorate. If you look at the survey evidence it’s something like 70% of the Conservative vote are people that voted Leave, and that therefore, above all, it seems to me that what the Conservative Party must be able to do in the coming weeks and months is to deliver on Brexit in a way that will satisfy the aspirations of Leave voters."
terence patrick hewett said @ 08:45
'An utter disaster for the Labour Party of Corbyn: Tories kept all and gained Barnet in London the only one lost countrywide is Plymouth. The big loser was Ukip but Ukip voters have not gone away - just tactical voting to keep Labour out - Ukip voters can sink the Tories if Brexit is betrayed.'
Oh I agree, the Rotherham Party's failure was epic when you consider their total membership is more than all the other parties put together - to gain nothing at this point in the cycle is a fail. The Plymouth result could be down to a change in demographics. At the turn of the century several cities in the South West were targeted for large-scale social engineering, the fruits of which are now ripening: plans for a mega mosque have been submitted to Plymouth Borough Council.
Phil Oakley, UKIP General Secretary on today's results:
“Think of the Black Death in the Middle Ages,”..It comes along and it causes disruption, and then it goes dormant. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do. Our time isn’t finished, because Brexit is being betrayed.”
Cometh the hour, cometh the party.
Steve
Steve, I am not sure that I admire Phil Oakley's choice of words. In comparing UKIP to the Black Death he seems almost as deranged as Jack Ketch comparing us to the SS ("BrexSShite").
In comparing UKIP to the Black Death
Deranged or not, I too found his choice of analogy surprising. Surprising and perhaps apt from a societal point of view; it, the Black Death reshaped our society completely,and arguably in many ways for the better....just a shame it came at the cost of the lives of 1/3 of the population.
Just a test to see if I can post a comment.
Haven't got anything sensible to say on the subject, just here to keep an eye on British politics. I enjoy the comments and of course Raedwald's writing (I'm the Norwegian reader).
ZaNu's membership is up because--thanks to Jizza--all the Marxist shite that decent Labour members and hierarchy ( decent comparatively--socialism stinks full stop--but some are far, far worse than others) and voters have been keeping under control for 150 years haver now taken over. All the Red Menace scum in the UK are now in Labours ranks. But that is the extent of their numbers. A half million evil Marxist nutjobs is not too bad for a country of 70+ million--way under one per cent of the population. But that is it. There is NO more groundswell for them out there because almost all of them--save numpty students etc who have been got at but to whom life will teach its harsh lessons in time--are already boosting ZaNu's fold because they believe Jizza is their one shot at the title.
They are right but his brand is failing. Only the Fish Faced Cow--always Jizza's number one asset--can swing it for the pricks.
And if she is prevented from selling out Brexit then Jizza has had his chips.
What percentage of the population were the Bolsheviks in Russia in 1916 ?
Or the Khomeiniists in Iran before they captured the revolution ?
Maybe we're safe if we don't have a revolution or civil war.
Don Cox
Don Cox -- "Maybe we're safe if we don't have a revolution or civil war." Exactly .... that's what they're working to incite so they can impose colonial/military rule over us.
Re: Don Cox
"What percentage of the population were the Bolsheviks in Russia in 1916 ?"
Maybe you're better off asking, what ethnicity were the Bolsheviks in Russia in 1916?
In 2015, Labour lost 203 councillors
In 2016, they lost 18
In 2017, they lost 382
In 2018, they gained 77
To put that in to perspective
In 95 and 96, they won 1,807 and 468
In 2007, 8 and 9, The Tories won 932, 256 and 244,
Even Ed Miliband was winning hundreds of seats every year.
"The Maybot's reaction to the Grenfell fire; "
The Tories won K&C convincingly
Which ought to demonstrate just how detached from reality the mass media is.
F*** Me the Tories still have more council seats than Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP and WNP combined.
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