Barring a disaster, skulduggery or external events, Boris is near certain to be asked by HM to form a government in about four weeks. Parliament is then due to rise, returning on 5th September for about a week before rising again for the conference season. The next session is due to run from 9th October to 7th November - over the time of the expiration of the Art 50 extension.
As many sage commentors are saying, we cannot deal with Brussels until we have a government with a majority in Parliament. The Lords is also in urgent need of reform to strip it of the political establishment who have 'captured' the house - meaning even if Boris succeeds in establishing a Commons majority, a Brexit solution may still be blocked by the Lords. For this particular problem, only threatening the Lords with creating 400 new Brexit Conservative peers overnight will offer success in the time available (NB I'm available).
Conservative constituencies across the country must decide now whether they need to deselect their sitting MP or not; a new party chairman appointed by Boris will surely work with Local Associations to ensure that every Leave constituency in which we Tories have a good chance is equipped with a Leave PPC.
We must also decide whether we will refrain from running in the mostly northern, Labour constituencies in which the Brexit Party can take best advantage of their Leave majorities - better a Brexit MP in the House than a LibDem by default.
How leaving the EU works in the middle of all this I simply don't know - but with the Commons as it is now tightly deadlocked, only the sharp edge of an election will undo this Gordian knot. In terms of constituencies, we have about 410 leave seats to 240 remain seats - and must ensure the next parliament reflects this.
Then there is the matter of an unbiased Speaker whom members can trust and in whom the voting public can have confidence. We may not be rid of Bercow until a GE.
Of course given the national emergency looming, Boris may decide to cancel both the MPs Summer holidays and the conference season and engineer the necessary vote of confidence sooner rather than later- having a new Parliament in place before 31st October.
Whichever way it goes, I cannot see us moving without an election. So get your stout knocking shoes re-soled, all, and be ready for anything.
19 comments:
Wouldn't the solution to this MP created mess be for Mr Johnson and his government to support Robin Tilbrook's court case, which has a good chance of concluding that we left the EU in March. This option would get us out of the EU, save us £39 billion,and avoid a general election at least for this year?
I cannot see the Conservative Party deselecting 70% of their MPs, some of whom might be quite good even if they are remainers. Look at Grieve, who is still in place, or Letwin et al. The party has not even withdrawn the whip. Then we have the new boundaries for constituencies, something which is urgently needed but will not happen.
One thing that could be done is to put some backbone into the electoral commission but as they are busy bullying TBP that is a pipe dream.
I think this will take years. The only way out is to suspend parliament, get out, and then having left sort out the mess. That is unlikely as I doubt if Boris has the nerve, but it would be great fun. Can you imagine the rage on the speaker’s face when he realises that he is powerless to intervene? Heseltine might even explode, Vince would be spinning and Blair might spontaneously combust with fury. It’s good to dream.
Alternatively Boris Johnson 'merely' has to prevent Parliament interfering for several weeks and the default 'leave with no deal' automatically happens on 31 October.
It's doubtful if the rEU would agree to a further extension unless a GE or Second Referendum was planned - perhaps even not then. The rEU may simply prefer to let Brexit happen while they concentrate on other matters.
I wonder how many more will cross the floor?
A GE would require Parliament's approval, as you know, but it would probably pass. The LDs would be gagging for it for some.
Come October 9th, all Boris has to do is to pop round Buck House for a spot of tea with Mrs E Windsor, and tell her to prorogue Parliament. She can't refuse especially as she's said yes to practically everything else. It's been done before and it can be done again. It would mean no Lords participation, no creating new Lords, no election and finally - No Deal.
Sit back with the popcorn and watch all the Lefty heads explode.
The Lords and the Commons has already approved no-deal...
Just a matter of sitting it out.
Proroguing is certainly possible, but it isn't needed. The problem with that course is that other governments in the future, might think of all sorts of great reasons for a prorogue, and the very thing that we are trying to fix, parliamentary democracy, will whither on the vine completely.
Obviously once no-deal has passed, Boris will have to defend his position, remainer Tories would be champing at the bit to do a Soubrey and cross the floor to form several new parties, so this would be the point where a GE is needed.
After Brexit is actioned, I suspect that the future Commons will look a whole lot different, once the parties realise that they have to actually perform the role of executive, they might become a little more competent, orgamised and representative of the party's tendency.
@ Charles As a resident and former Conservative Party member in Dorset West, I doubt if Letwin will be re-selected by the local Association.
But just in case, I and my fellow Brexit Party activists are getting ourselves ready. If the CONs appoint someone who can be trusted to vote for Brexit, I'll be travelling to the nearest Remainer's Constituency to campaign against them (probably a LibDem in the west country).
Would they risk a GE with the rise of TBP on the cards? I very much doubt there would be a majority for any single party and a coalition (or two coalitions) may result to thwart/push for Brexit inevitably prolonging the agony.
Tilbrooks Court case will only ever get resolved when we've left-by-other-means else a legally-binding result pre- the 'official' result will cause total mayhem constitutionally with claims of 'neglect' and 'malfeasance' abounding.
The idea to call a GE has the same principles as May's call in '17 and could potentially have the same disastrous results.
Arrest Bercow and Treason May and the top 20 Tory traitors for treason. Conviction unlikely but arrange a 2 year remand while it is all sorted out. Tell MPs that under Bliars CCW(sic) Act--that those cunts passed themselves-- there will be a vote to repeal their No-"No Deal" Letwin -Cooper cockrot. They will not be allowed to vote at all but their votes will be entered as their constituents voted on 23/6/16. Any dissent or aggro real or threatened will mean another arrest for treason and 2 years on remand. Vote passes. We leave No Deal right away.Job done.
BoJo was clearly the pick of the bunch but still not enough.
He needs to be hard-nosed. A complete change and alliance with Farage. Up and Leave BEFORE 31st October. Cancel Treason May's killer climate deal (and Milliband's previous), clear out the Lords, we don't need the biggest (2nd biggest?) 2nd chamber in the world for our country, maybe 100 (bit like Senate). Boundary changes to equalise constiuencies, ban postal voting, bring in voter ID, sack all mayors (not the nice docil traditional position, I mean all the useless unnecessary new ones [half of whom seem to be Muslim??])...
Then on the 2nd day he can do some other stuff.
There's no such thing as a sure thing, mey dear fellows:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/21/police-called-to-loud-altercation-at-boris-johnsons-home
Johnson needs the Fairy Queen from Iolanthe to pronounce her sentence -
"Every Bill and every measure,
That may gratify his pleasure,
Though your fury it arouses,
Shall be passed by both your Houses.
You shall sit, if he sees reason,
Through the grouse and salmon season...." etc
Should do the trick!
James Higham thinks Boris will strip out the Irish backstop and ram the rest of May's Withdrawal Agreement through. Do you feel BoJo is really committed to a full Leave?
Aiming to have good, mutually-beneficial relations with peaceful, friendly, democratic, countries doesn't form the strongest grounds for a Treason charge, Ecky.
You might find it tricky to get that one to stick old chum.
I agree, a national plebiscite is necessary.
But here's the catch, without proper electoral reform, cutting down labours rotten boroughs and binning the idea of postal ballot for infirm only, not provision for postal voting of any and everyone, there can be no realization of true democracy - well, as near as you can get it.
and................. bojo hasn't the nuts to prorogue and thus circumnavigate indeed eschew and morally, rightfully, the remoan muppetry and 'peculation of westmister' the EU loving but Briton hating fuqwits.
Nosey neighbors ...........
NN1: Mute that TV I can't hear properly.
NN2: How d'you turn this phone onto record?
NN1: Shush.
NN2: Who shall phone first, press or police ?
NN1: Leave it awhile it's just getting good.
NN2: Get your ear off the wall you're drooling on the wallpaper.
Well well well, police called to Boris's house. Conspiracy theories afoot to get yet another Remainer in number 10.?
Jaded.
Cheesy--Still can't read old chum? I say conviction unlikely--but the same lying, cheating shower of shite that can fit up Tommy Robinson can get the MP malefactors two years on remand--in some RoP run shithole preferably.
As for the Boris domestic bullshit. It proves exactly how scared your pack of treasonous remainiac arseholes are--of a character who is more BlueLabour than anything else. Christ knows what you would be trying to pull if Steve Baker was favourite.
It would be undemocratic to hold a second referendum with remain on the ballot paper as the decision as to whether to leave or remain in the EU has already been decided in the first one.
There is also no point in holding a second referendum as a win for leave would still not be respected by our existing Parliament who are acting undemocratically as leave won 64:36 by constituency and both the main parties' 2017 election manifestos contained promises to respect the result of the EU referendum.
Since the EU are not prepared to amend their withdrawal agreement –the one where we accept EU laws, budgets, taxes, fines and policies (trade, energy, environment, foreign, immigration etc) but without representation or veto and with no lawful means of exit – the one described by Mr. Verhofstadt’s staff as reducing the UK to EU colony status – then if a new PM is either unwilling or unable for the UK to leave with “no deal” (WTO terms until a trade deal is agreed) the only way forward will have to be a GE to change the “Commons arithmetic”.
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