The future is Local

You'd be hard put to invent anything as singularly stupid as Corbyn's spiteful and vindictive scorched earth policy as his grip is forced from the Labour Party. He, Milne and McDonnell have spent their term getting as many as possible of their own people into Labour's key positions, and no doubt a new leader will find employment contracts impossible or hugely expensive to break. However, the absolute moronic icing on the stupidity cake is the suspension of Trevor Phillips on the grounds of preventing reputational damage to the party.

The May elections will be a test of how far Corbyn's party have evicted the Trad Lab local government nexus in the heartlands. I've written before how I once knew well, liked and respected the old Labour culture in south Yorkshire. We share many values; a passion for fairness, equity, probity, transparency, stewardship, trust and democracy. Our beliefs are grounded in a moral absolutism that is Christian in character. We believe in merit, in the rewards of ability and application, and deprecate everything that Corbyn's Labour stands for - privilege, nepotism, moral relativity, racism and discrimination, avarice, partiality, dishonesty, twisted political manipulation, bullying, stitch-ups and corruption. 

Where the trad Lab people and structures are still in place, the Labour vote will hold up. Where the Corbynites have taken over, openings will be created - and we are starting to see the rise of new, Labour-replacement parties, locally focused, with no London blow-ins, party functionaries, remote from the Corbynista nomenklatura. Ieuan Joy in the 'graph describes them as 'microparties'. Of course my own party will hope to make inroads here in May - but trad Lab voters I know will be reluctant to vote for the local businessmen who will stand as Tory councillors in red wall country. Boris was different. These places are not Tory, though the voters are conservative. The mill owner and the landlord are still the enemies.

The hate parties and personalities will also seek to make inroads here in May, looking to exploit local tensions. Social media users will know that they have started their campaigns already. I have great confidence in the ability of local voters to dismiss them. They are rightly loathed every bit as much as Corbyn's NKVD.

I used the meme below as part of a jokey dig at Labour in the December election, but after the voices in the media questioning, following the suspension of Phillips, just how nasty and authoritarian the metropolitan party can get, it will raise just a scintilla of real caution. It's what parties such as the one Corbyn, Milne and McDonnell want to create can become.

 

09/03/20
EU/EEA and the UK	Cases	Deaths
Italy	7375	366
France	1126	19
Germany	902	0
Spain	589	5
United Kingdom	273	3
Netherlands	265	3
Sweden	203	0
Belgium	200	0
Norway	169	0
Austria	102	0
Greece	73	0
Iceland	55	0
Denmark	38	0
Czech Republic	32	0
Portugal	30	0
Finland	30	0
Ireland	21	0
Slovenia	16	0
Romania	15	0
Croatia	12	0
Poland	11	0
Estonia	10	0
Hungary	8	0
Slovakia	5	0
Luxembourg	5	0
Bulgaria	4	0
Malta	3	0
Latvia	3	0
Lithuania	1	0
Liechtenstein	1	0
Total	11577	396

It's time to replace the ECHR

When the monochrome horrors of the camps shocked cinema audiences in Britain, when stories of brutality, atrocities and the iron boot of authoritarianism trampling democracy became current, the UK was foremost in imposing on the wayward peoples of the world a new reminder of the duties that governments and societies owe to their people. Following the adoption of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights by the United Nations (the name originally of the alliance fighting the Axis powers), the Council of Europe adopted the European Convention, together with a court to enforce it.

The ECHR and the ECtHR are not EU institutions but those of the Council of Europe. The Council of Europe includes 47 nations and 820 million people; the EU only includes 27 of those nations and 426m of those citizens. However, the ECtHR has fallen into the same pernicious power-grab using the same pernicious method as the EU - the notion of 'dynamic' law and regulation. You sign up to potatoes, and within a few years they have changed it to include tomatoes, oranges, bananas and plums. The 'they' is of course unelected judges - and Ld Sumption featured the 'mission creep' effect in his Reith lectures last year;

Article 8 protects the human right to private and family life, the privacy of the home and personal correspondence. It was designed as a protection against the surveillance state in totalitarian regimes. But the Strasbourg Court has developed it into what it calls a principle of personal autonomy. Acting on this principle, it has extended Article 8 so that it potentially covers anything that intrudes upon a person’s autonomy unless the Court considers it to be justified.

Now, it will be obvious that most laws seek, to some degree, to intrude on personal autonomy. They impose standards of behaviour which would not necessarily be accepted voluntarily. This may be illustrated by the vast range of issues which the Strasbourg Court has held to be covered by Article 8. They include the legal status of illegitimate children, immigration and deportation, extradition, criminal sentencing, the recording of crime, abortion, artificial insemination, homosexuality and same sex unions, child abduction, the policing of public demonstrations, employment and social security rights, environmental and planning law, noise abatement, eviction for non-payment of rent and a great deal else besides. All of these things have been held to be encompassed in the protection of private and family life.

None of them is to be found in the language of the convention. None of them is a natural implication from its terms. None of them has been agreed by the signatory states. They are all extensions of the text which rest on the sole authority of the Judges of the Strasbourg Court. This is, in reality, a form of non-consensual legislation.

It is not that we have abandoned any of the fundamental rights for which our fathers fought and died, any of the rights laid out in the convention of 1950, but that the ECtHR has assumed an authority that usurps democracy. These are not decisions for judges - they are decisions for voters, and for the ballot box. Only ending this slow-motion power grab will restore democracy.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus (the disease it causes is called Covid-19) has already caused nations to look to themselves. France and Germany have banned the export of masks, gloves, alcohol sanitiser and other preventative materials - banned export to other EU nations. Shengen is about to be suspended and national borders manned again - this time with (pointless) temperature probes replacing the Tommy guns. At times of war and plague, nations reassert themselves, and people demand that their own governments look to their interests, not to those of a remote federation of unelected apparatchiks.

Update - GBP - EUR pair
===================
For anyone looking for an explanation of why the €/£ rate has gone from 1.204 last week to 1.146 today - it's the carry trade, not us, and it will work itself out - as Zerohedge has it 

If a carry trade unwind does cause the euro to surge uncontrollably against the dollar towards the $1.2-1.3 zone, the impact on the fragile eurozone economy could be devastating. For despite the euro’s weakness against the dollar, other countries have also been pursuing weak currency polices. As a result, the euro effective exchange rate (ie measuring the euro against a basket of currencies) is much stronger than the headline euro/$ exchange rate suggests. A surge in the euro from current levels as the carry trade unwinds could crush the eurozone economy. Indeed it could threaten the euro’s very existence. 

08/03/20
EU/EEA and the UK	Cases	Deaths
Italy	5883	233
Germany	847	0
France	716	10
Spain	430	5
United Kingdom	206	2
Netherlands	188	1
Belgium	169	0
Sweden	161	0
Norway	147	0
Austria	104	0
Greece	66	0
Iceland	53	0
Denmark	31	0
Czech Republic	26	0
Portugal	21	0
Ireland	19	0
Finland	19	0
Romania	13	0
Croatia	12	0
Slovenia	12	0
Estonia	10	0
Hungary	7	0
Poland	6	0
Luxembourg	3	0
Slovakia	3	0
Malta	3	0
Bulgaria	2	0
Latvia	2	0
Lithuania	1	0
Liechtenstein	1	0
Total	9161	251

The effect of Covid-19 on Boris's programme

Covid-19 has already had the effect of downgrading a few of the Prime Minister's early objectives. His list for stuff to do in his first 100 days since 12th December surely cannot have included "deal with deadly pandemic". So what's gone, what isn't and what's been watered down?

Brexit
No change. The crunch date is still June - when France needs to have withdrawn her silly demands in return for more money from the other 26. The only issue is keeping both teams disease free. And M Barnier, at 69, is at the age at which he should be staying in more.

BBC
There are signs of softening on both sides. I reckon the TV tax will be decriminalised, in effect a £200m fine for past naked bias, but longer term funding will be thrown into the long grass. Many just want the BBC to be  smaller, more efficient, cheaper and rid of its unacceptable bias. However, there are signs they still don't get it. Tony Hall is picking up on the 'diversity of thought' challenge, but the real challenge is that the BBC is a big, statist, centralist broadcaster that endogenously supports a big centralist State. Unless this changes, not much else will.

Whitehall
The Priti Patel row isn't about the Home Secretary at all. It's the attempted picking-off of a reformist big beast by the establishment that has captured the state. They will lose this battle, but the war is likely to be put on hold as the government will have genuine need of the command-and-control structures that Whitehall has in place permanently (instead of just temporarily for wars, plagues and pestilence). They're safe until Covid-19 reaches its conclusion.

Parliament
Frankly, the suggestion that Parliament should be suspended to preserve the lives of MPs and peers is ludicrous. Giving the government emergency powers that MPs return every 28 days to renew, dressed no doubt in full-body suits, masks and visors, is too risible to consider. If carrying on as usual with anticipated absence rates of 20%, as the population is expected to do, is good enough for health workers it's good enough for MPs. Sure, six or seven of them may die (and rather more peers, but they have the choice between their attendance allowance and a risk of infection) but MPs are expendable - they themselves are not valuable, just the party selection made by their constituents. They must face the same risks as the rest of us. So any closure will be an abject betrayal of the nation and should not be considered. The Commons sat through the Blitz - a bloody little Chinese bug is nothing.

05/03/20
EU/EEA and the UK	Cases	Deaths
Italy	3089	107
France	285	4
Germany	262	0
Spain	200	1
United Kingdom	85	0
Norway	56	0
Netherlands	38	0
Sweden	35	0
Austria	29	0
Iceland	26	0
Belgium	23	0
Greece	10	0
Denmark	10	0
Croatia	9	0
Czech Republic	8	0
Finland	7	0
Ireland	6	0
Portugal	5	0
Romania	4	0
Hungary	2	0
Estonia	2	0
Lithuania	1	0
Slovenia	1	0
Liechtenstein	1	0
Luxembourg	1	0
Poland	1	0
Latvia	1	0
Total	4197	112

ERT - Still there, still protectionist

Imagine the CBI writ large - a vocal, well-funded pro-remain lobby group for the global corporates, on a European rather on a national scale, and you have the ERT, the European Round Table. The ERT don't just have a lobby presence in Brussels, they're on the inside track. No directive is rubber stamped by the unelected officials unless it's had the nod from the ERT. And no, Brexit has made no difference to UK-HQ'd companies with rotating memberships. Right now, it's the turn of Centrica, Rolls-Royce, Rio Tinto, AstraZeneca, BP and Vodafone.

As I hinted at yesterday, there's a new EU Industrial Strategy due out on March 10th, and the ERT is like a Labrador that's just found a fresh cow pat. In December, the EU already agreed to put €3.2bn of taxpayers' money into an €8bn state-aided vehicle battery scheme, a 'Project of Common European Interest', and the eyes of the EU's defence companies are on stalks anticipating billions of state aid following budget agreement. The Industrial strategy promises not just oodles more state aid for the EU's 'champion' companies, which you bet have already been agreed behind closed doors, but a relaxation on regulation, particularly relating to mergers and acquisitions. No more silly fuss about Alstom and Siemens getting married, no more worry about Europe's consumers or the future of its SMEs.

The ERT's agenda is published here and I won't quote it. Given Michael O'Leary's foul-mouthed whining to the press in recent days, bemoaning the €1.3bn state aid that's already gone to Alitalia, the German state aid that has favoured Lufthansa and the EU approach to competition. It's the sort of grouch one hears at the end of an unsuccessful pitch from the losers. I'm betting Ryan Air is just a tiddler not even worthy of the ERT and EU's consideration for state aid billions. You may note that the Irish company has current orders for 210 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. The prospect of picking up some of FlyBe's slots may this morning have tempered the profanities, but with Covid-19 grounding passengers, perhaps not. Oh. And the Labrador-coating O'Leary was predicting for the outcome of the Brexit talks? That, I'm guessing, is aimed at nervous investors. My advice - book BA.

04/03/20
Country	Cases	Deaths
Italy	2502	80
France	212	4
Germany	196	0
Spain	151	0
United Kingdom	51	0
Switzerland	37	0
Norway	33	0
Netherlands	28	0
Sweden	24	0
Austria	24	0
Iceland	16	0
Belgium	13	0
San Marino	10	1
Croatia	9	0
Denmark	8	0
Greece	7	0
Finland	7	0
Czech Republic	5	0
Portugal	4	0
Romania	4	0
Ireland	2	0
Estonia	2	0
Latvia	1	0
Andorra	1	0
Poland	1	0
Luxembourg	1	0
Monaco	1	0
Lithuania	1	0
Total	3351	85

EU shoots itself in the foot. Again.

Pushed off the front pages by Covid-19, the EU trade deal talks have ramped up the threat and bluster from across the Channel. The first exclusion to note is that the UK has removed any discussion of defence and security co-operation from a possible agreement. Police and justice matters are included, as is a commitment to co-operation in tackling terrorist threats, but what's missing are the plums the EU wanted.

Even more than an EU army, they want an EU defence industry to rival the big US arms firms. What they have been trying to do is to handicap the UK's ability to use state aid to boost our domestic arms industry by shackling us to EU rules whilst quietly agreeing to drive a bulldozer through state aid rules themselves by sponsoring EU 'champions' in fields including defence development. You can be sure they have already picked half a dozen big EU27 firms for 'boosting'. They wanted our money and expertise, but after their behaviour on Galileo the government have told them to go whistle.

Both military and diplomatic co-operation agreements are out. The UK's position is that we are members of NATO, that EU members should pay their 2% rather than buggering around playing toy soldiers, and that the UK will co-operate on an ad-hoc basis outside of NATO on military and diplomatic matters as and when it suits us. With no silly 'dynamic' agreement governed by the Berlaymont waved in our faces.

The EU's overly risk-averse approach to anything new means that the world's Artificial Intelligence, big data and Biotech investors aren't going to put their post-Covid money into the EU27. Without a single university in the world's top 20 (the UK has 4) there are few centres of research excellence anyway in the EU, and the bloc's restraints and development caution will throw a heavy blanket over innovation and drive the cleverest innovators out of Europe. Some hope of any world-beating defence development coming out of the EU27.

Well, they had their chance. They took advantage of the UK's political weakness under the abysmal Cameron and even more abysmal May and now they must face the consequences.

EU/EEA, the UK, San Marino, Monaco, Switzerland, Andorra 3/3/20
	Cases	Deaths
Italy	1835	52
France	178	3
Germany	157	0
Spain	114	0
United Kingdom	40	0
Switzerland	30	0
Norway	25	0
Netherlands	18	0
Austria	18	0
Sweden	15	0
San Marino	8	1
Belgium	8	0
Croatia	8	0
Greece	7	0
Iceland	6	0
Finland	6	0
Czech Republic	5	0
Denmark	5	0
Romania	3	0
Portugal	2	0
Andorra	1	0
Lithuania	1	0
Monaco	1	0
Latvia	1	0
Ireland	1	0
Estonia	1	0
Luxembourg	1	0
Total	2495	56

Britain -v- France? Not really.

Macron is fighting for his political life at the moment, and is setting-up his fellow EU26 colleagues for a sub. The Brexit talks in which France has set impossible targets for M Barnier are really not at all about Brexit, as is becoming clear. Barely £2.6bn of the EU's trade surplus of £66bn is France's, so unlike Germany and Spain she has little to lose. He knows he has no chance of the UK giving up our fishing rights, or of becoming a rule-taker, and even less chance of our subjecting ourselves to the ECJ. So why give M Barnier such unachievable objectives?

France has the biggest State in Europe, with tax at the EU's highest rate of 48.4% of GDP. Her farmers and fishers are heavily subsidised by Europe's taxpayers and by raiding UK waters. These advantages are set to be challenged post-Brexit, and you can be sure that the EU budget process for the next seven year cycle will not have decided anything by June, the crunch date for the Brexit talks. Macron will obstruct and clog up EU deliberations, using his veto as required, until it is clear Barnier is unable to achieve his brief.

Macron's plan is that at this point the remaining EU26 will agree to bung even more wodge in France's direction to enable Macron to pay-off his farmers and fishers and soften pension reform. Add to this even more money that he wants for France now being the EU's only credible military member, for the 26 to buy into his seat at the UN and his Force de frappe. Then he'll agree an EU-UK trade deal.

However, if this much is apparent to us, you can bet it's also crystal clear to the Frugal Five (Austria, Denmark Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden) and particularly to Germany - whose taxpayers will have to pay for France's relaxed lifestyle. Will Macron win? Who knows. Now it's getting interesting.

EU/EEA, the UK, San Marino, Monaco and Switzerland 2/3/20
	Cases	Deaths
Italy	1689	35
France	130	2
Germany	129	0
Spain	83	0
United Kingdom	36	0
Switzerland	24	0
Norway	19	0
Austria	14	0
Sweden	14	0
Netherlands	13	0
San Marino	8	1
Croatia	7	0
Greece	7	0
Finland	6	0
Denmark	4	0
Romania	3	0
Czech Republic	3	0
Iceland	3	0
Belgium	2	0
Ireland	1	0
Luxembourg	1	0
Estonia	1	0
Lithuania	1	0
Monaco	1	0
Total	2199	38

PM right to reject EU Trojan Horses

The EU are desperate to retain some measure of control over the UK. In this they are ably assisted by a fifth-column of public service officials in the UK who will lobby fervently for the continuance of democratic anomalies such as the European Arrest Warrant and of membership of such bodies as Europol.

The Telegraph reports today that the PM has rejected a move by Health officials to maintain membership of the EU Early Warning and Response System (EWRS). They were attempting to use Covid-19 as leverage to continue some measure of EU management and control of the UK's health response capacity. We are quite right to reject such Trojan Horse attempts.

Inevitably, such subserviences are unnecessary. We don't need Europol because we're members of Interpol. Interpol allows co-operation in criminal investigation and enforcement between sovereign nations; Europol is the federal police agency of the EU. Big difference.

As with the EWRS. We continue to be part of the health 'Interpol', the WHO, which co-ordinates information sharing, warning dissemination and international funding and assistance. WHO also publishes the international daily case tally for Covid-19. If you want a European perspective, you can look at the EU's ECDPC site. They're not so stupid to publish only the WHO's figures for EU nations or to exclude the UK from lists of emergency contacts and laboratory resources - a virus knows no borders, and European doctors and medical authorities are also quite capable of co-operating with each other without the controlling hand of the EU.

Here is the daily update for 1st March - excluding the 13 new cases yesterday for the UK

EU/EEA, the UK, San Marino, Monaco and Switzerland
	Cases	Deaths
Italy	1128	29
Germany	111	0
France	100	2
Spain	66	0
United Kingdom	23	0
Switzerland	18	0
Norway	15	0
Sweden	13	0
Austria	10	0
Netherlands	7	0
Greece	7	0
Croatia	5	0
Romania	3	0
Denmark	3	0
Finland	3	0
Estonia	1	0
Monaco	1	0
Iceland	1	0
Luxembourg	1	0
Ireland	1	0
Belgium	1	0
San Marino	1	0
Lithuania	1	0
Total	1520	31