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Tuesday, 31 March 2020

The world turned upside down

It is actually in the UK's interest to support M Macron and the southern EU states against Germany. Their efforts to force the Bundesbank to shit gold and ensure the future of the EU at least in the short term coincide with British interests. Oh sure, I dislike intensely all supranational bodies and the EU in particular and would love nothing more than to see its disintegration but as St Augustine prayed "..... not yet". The dual impacts of the Wuhan virus and Brexit shock means we need at least for a year or two a stable and functioning EU on our borders. We simply can't afford or accomplish the level of support we would be called upon to provide in the event of an imminent EU break-up.

We don't care if Germany loses her place in the world GDP league as a result of shared fiscal responsibility. In fact it suits us - Macron's plans would in effect castrate a powerful Germany on France's borders long before our Teuton cousins get any new ideas. It will all be money down the drain, of course, and the problem is the Germans know that. And if push comes to shove, I'd guess they'll put Germany before the EU. But we don't want a powerful independent Germany and a resurgent Deutsch mark. We really don't.

So many things will be turned on their heads during this crisis, supporting the French will not be the most extraordinary of them. The car lease market is approaching collapse, car dealerships are in crisis, car manufacturers close to bankruptcy. VW is burning through its €27bn cash reserve at the rate of €2bn a week. Some 13,000 passenger aircraft are now grounded, and after this crisis there may not be room for both Boeing and Airbus in the market without a massive state subsidy fight between the US and EU. The cruise ship industry is finished - our pensioners could just about take the 50/50 risk of Norovirus and spending the cruise voiding through the eye of a needle, but two weeks in a floating Wuhan disease incubator will be too much. Despite the Prozac-bright optimism of some in the markets - "Three months crisis, three months recovery then three months growth" - chirped one chap on the radio this morning - things will never go back to where they were in December 2019.

And as I predicted last Thursday, the public backlash against the police has already begun. I wrote "the longer and deeper the restrictions on our freedoms, the stronger and wider the public backlash, and the bigger the Big Bang demolition of the Central State to come". Well, we haven't even started yet.

Keep well, all.


DeeDee99 said...

"It will all be money down the drain, of course, and the problem is the Germans know that. And if push comes to shove, I'd guess they'll put Germany before the EU. "

Of course they will. The EU is build upon an erroneous belief that powerful nation states can be forced by Treaty NOT to put the interests of their own nation first. And we know they won't: France has been a prime example for the whole existence of the EEC/EU.

The economies of two countries in Europe worst hit by CV, Italy and Spain, have large tourist-based sectors. They are going to be hammered; there will be no swift return to the status quo ante. They will have to compete to attract the reduced number of visitors and all the time they're trapped in the Euro, they can't devalue. The Italians have already worked out that, under normal circumstances, the Euro doesn't work in THEIR interests. And post CV, it won't be normal circumstances.

jim said...

Nations Do Not Have Permanent Friends or Enemies, Only Interests.

Think forward two years. In Europe and the USA the effects of the virus have declined, there are still hot spots in Africa. A vaccine has been developed. China and its surrounding states have been back on song for 18 months. Germany came out of the virus rather ahead of the rest of Europe. The world's economic centre of gravity has shifted further East.

What should Germany do, help out France and Spain and Italy? Are they useful to Germany's interests? What about UK, it still wants to 'Leave'. Would Germany do better to let the UK stew in its own juice? Germany has an opportunity to take markets away from the rest. As Raedwald suggests, maybe France, Italy, Spain and UK might do well to weaken Germany's hand or persuade Germany that it is in its interests to help out. What seems likely?

If I were in Germany's shoes I would like to keep the EU together, more or less. Worth a bit of cash to do so. I would seek to help out France, Spain, Italy etc a little bit. But to keep them as weak competitors but strong enough to buy German products. They are no use flat on their backs. As for the Brits, I would let them stew.

I reckon the cruise ships will move toward the emerging nations. Those for when NoraVirus is a new pleasure. The airlines will get nationalised and planes sold off cheap. Airbus will be kept going. As for stomping around in jackboots, forget it, no-one can afford that nonsense.

Thud said...

Nobody knows if we will go back to as it was before, I was happy with the world I lived in and would be only too happy for it to return and perhaps it will (ok some things will be different I know).I do think things will return to normality quicker than some say as peoples pent up energy etc will cause an acceleration of ideas and spending when allowed.

Dave_G said...

The only way to 'recover' is to do so without the banks controlling everything therefore unless we start the conversation over how to achieve this we are destined to repeat this situation ad infinitum.

Strat talking 'sovereign currency' and questioning the banks stranglehold on us and everything we work for. Look to incite hatred of the banks. They have stolen our today and have plans to steal our tomorrow too. Everything you do should be done for yourself, not the benefit of a faceless thief intent on making themselves rich at your expense.

Stop this crap about countries and 'rescue' for if we don't break this cycle NOW we ever will.

JPM said...

"Your corrupt ways have finally made you blind"

Stephen J said...

I am not aware that the Germans have had any "new ideas" since the heady days of Otto von Bismarck, Raedwald?

Well at least in regard to their subsequent deeds and actions, perhaps it is genetics at work?

Regarding "getting things back to "normalcy"... Recently I saw a report from MIT, not sure where, but the title suggested that things will never be normal again. The report suggested that "house arrest" will be the new norm on a rolling repeat each and every time there is a new case of "viral infection".

Russia looks better by the day, at least criminality is out in the open and practised by the leadership, by way of open example. With its massive mostly untapped wealth, it can keep a tight hold on energy supplies to the Germans, and stay clear of the banks.

Not saying I am advocating the idea, but at least we know who the enemy is, and that it is not skulking about behind the velvet curtain.

The best that most can glean from the press here, is that fear is the new reality for the blind follower.

Last night, I was listening to a conversation between SWMBO and an old friend of ours who is currently holed up in the west country in a total funk. I wasn't eavesdropping, the speaker was on as she described her concerns, but it would appear that the media is complicit and that everything else is a conspiracy, so best left to the nerdish, not that I am guilty of that predisposition.. oh no.


Jack the dog said...

"What should Germany do, help out France and Spain and Italy? Are they useful to Germany's interests? "

well there is gathering some momentum here in Italy to boycott German products. At the end of the day loads pf countries make perfectly good cars and there's no longer anything special about a BMW apart from the price.

So Germany needs to work on its image pdq.

Personally I couldn't give a shit about the Krauts (collectively, I have some terrific German fiends as individuals). At for feet or at your throat.

Anonymous said...

Just wondering what the Globalists' next move will be? I mean this whole pandemic thing is pretty unpredictable so at least some of their control is gone; such as facilitating open borders flooding the living daylights out us (white nations only) with Third World change agents. They're pretty much out in the open now and far easier to spot - moving to properties in New Zealand, which is why the guns had to be got rid of there..


Anonymous said...

we need a stable and functioning EU on our borders ....

Sounds like you've got the virus and are suffering a bout of delirium. Surely, you can't be one of those fair-weather Brexiters.

James Higham said...

Interesting how France turns back ti us in a crisis.