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Tuesday, 19 June 2018

Migration - the real coming EU crisis

Italy has closed her ports to the NGO taxi service, and to the earnest young westerners with access to enough wealth to buy small merchant ships who have operated it, ferrying hundreds of thousands of Africans from both the maghreb and sub-saharan regions from the Libyan coast to the Mezzogiorno. And since it is not only these idiots but the Italian coastguard and Navy that has transferred migrants from their spanking-new Chinese rubber rafts for the trip across the Med, one wonders what orders they have now. Sailors are under an international legal obligation to respond to those in peril, but the law doesn't require us to go looking for them - so most likely their patrols have been restricted to the Italian coast, or even more wisely, they are now steaming to the Horn of Africa for anti-piracy operations. 

I have printed before a version of the UN graphic below. Youth unemployment in Africa is between 25% and 70%. Over the next ten years the number of young Africans 15-24 will soar from 250m to over 300m - and the best guess is that some 50m of those will drift north, seeing their only future as recipients of European wealth. 

This bulge in the number of young Africans is coming at a time when global opportunities for uneducated and unskilled young men is approaching a nadir; robots have replaced them as factory fodder, and even the traditional entry-profession of taxi driving is now under threat from AI. We have seasonal opportunities in the UK for fruit pickers and horticultural workers, but want the workers to go back home when the work ends. These folk want to stay. 

What the nations of Europe must now decide - and the six-month Austrian presidency of the EU is determined to ensure they do - is how to tackle the people smugglers and thousands of giant-sized Chinese rubber rafts. The only realistic solution that I can see is European enclaves in North Africa in which we maintain migrant camps that can hold a million or more Africans - feed them, keep them safe from enslavement, provide basic medical care. And then send them home. 


dustybloke said...

Remember the AIDS hysteria when it was first imported to the West? The Establishment, consisting of more than its fair share of homosexuals, went ballistic. Their media arm, the BBC, solemnly announced that this was a problem for every man, woman and child in the world, not just sodomites and needle-sharers.

Well, if they dig deep enough into sub-Saharan Africa, they are going to import a whole lot of grief.

Anonymous said...

The only way to stop the migrant is to give him/her a reason to stay. How can the human exporting nations be forced to manage themselves better, its been tried before with questionable results, perhaps there are some new ideas?

Cuffleyburgers said...

As long as people in Africa think that they have an escape route to Europe for an easy life they'll take it. That's human nature.

The solution is:
a) close off the escape route, migrants as they are recued from the sea get taken to large holding camps in Libya while their asylum application is processed, then sent back to sender
b) more intelligent trade policies so that african economies can achieve growth. That includes of course wholesale reform of the CAP so that Farican farmers can export to Europe and achieve growth.
c) I think the growth of AI and robots is not holding down employment in Africa. They rae too poor. It will be some years before that is the case. Their problems are war, corruption, governmental theft and obstacles to free trade put in place by protectionist minded European and American governments, and assisted by the usual useful idiots in the NGOs and big charity who fight child employment for example.

Africa has its problems but it can be solved, providing a lifeline to Europe will only ruin Europe without helping Africa.

But of course for big Soros, that is a feature not a bug.

Dave_G said...

The problem with Africa is the Africans. Their cultural approach to life isn't one of sharing and co-operation, it's one of 'every man for himself' and with that kind of attitude they can't organise a piss up in a brewery.

The only time Africa 'worked' was when whitey ruled the vast majority of it. Ok, it worked primarily for 'whitey' but the Africans got side benefits of infrastructure, law and prosperity (of sorts) - the sort of prosperity and advancement that eventually led to India gaining independence and (albeit slowly) moving up the world ladder.

But when India got free of colonialism the Africans did too - much of it because of the liberal bleeding hearts that demanded it be - and look what happened. Rhodesia became Zimbabwe, South Africa became what it is today - a society sinking into collapse etc etc.

Africa is a continent that has more resource and potential than the rest of the world combined but NO ONE TO CONTROL IT. They need to be led by the hand towards advancement and not be allowed to asset strip it for personal gain (Mugabe, Zuma etc). Gadhaffi knew what he was doing and how to do it and Libya was headed in the right direction - but not in a manner that the West wanted (apparently) but you don't hear of the angst afforded by his deposing as you did about whitey running Rhodesia....

Because of liberal wishy-washy politics the Africans won't see advancement and a reason to stay there to enjoy the fruits of it. They need to swallow their pride (fat chance) and invite investment/control - under strict protection rules of course - and grow their way out of poverty. Done properly they could achieve this in a single generation and the flow of migrants may even reverse as hard-up whitey angles for cheap and comfortable retirement in warmer climes.

Anonymous said...

John Miller

A couple of points.
"Aids in Africa" was about re-badging the old African causes of death as "Aids". Under the Bengui definition absolutely no HIV test is necessary to declare a death indistinguishable to those common in Africa for centuries as being due to "Aids". Remember all those stories about entire countries populations heading for being wiped out? All that's gone a bit quiet over the last two or three decades as population figures have refused to play ball.

Further, all "Aids" cases are a re-badging of an often-changed list of numerous older conditions (albeit sometimes with newer causes such as massive amyl nitrate use in the early gay cases). Oddly for a condition which is supposedly caused by HIV, some "Aids" cases are HIV negative.

No examination of this is going to be quick or easy.
It really isn't conducive to sound-bites, so I'd recommend a good long read (including the really extensive sources) here:

Anonymous said...

Your previous post "Are You A Liberal" touched on the way we in the West are being increasingly ruled by a self-styled elite that think it is OK to be 'beneficial dictators'.

Seeing as they also think that mass migration is 'a good idea' how about they migrate en masse to Africa and conduct their social 'engineering' experiments there first?

John Dub said...

The UN forecast is that Africa will have a population of 2.40 Billion by 2050.

Just 5% moving to Europe would annihilate our societies completely.

Anonymous said...

There is an alternative:

Open up EU markets to African goods - Full Free Trade - instead of harvesting their primary produce and retaining all added value to Europe

Promote & develop education and training in Africa for those skill sets and competencies (such as nurses, doctors) that can be absorbed into an aging European society

Create a robust guest-worker employment visa program (similar to those that have run successfully for decades in the Middle and Far East)

The first will immediately re-orient African economies to start adding value to their exports with all the technical benefits that such an industrial reset will provide, the second will empower their education systems with goals that will inspire, whilst, if well organised, will produce a surplus of professionals who never emigrate, but remain and add value to their societies, the third will produce a remittance culture, much more effective than any ODI program - placing wealth directly into the hands of families, far beyond the reach of traditional development aid programs

Cascadian said...

"What the nations of Europe must now decide...... is European enclaves in North Africa in which we maintain migrant camps that can hold a million or more Africans - feed them, keep them safe from enslavement, provide basic medical care. And then send them home."

Except the last sentence never occurs, why work when everything is provided. Actually some Greeks might like something similar-free stuff, arriving from others. So you want to create several more Gaza strip-like refugee camps. Good luck with that.

I would suggest that the answer resolves around removing all pull factors. European countries need to resolve to close all access to social programs and health plans for undocumented migrants if you have not paid in. A robust "ship them back" force needs to be set up, and it should not be beyond the wit of combined security agencies to identify and eliminate the slave traders who encourage this mass movement of unfortunates.

As others noted Rhodesia and South Africa once showed that corners of the continent could be successful, I think under China's guidance that could once again prove possible.

The last thing Africa needs is European "help" it too often resembles disaster.

Cascadian said...

And, of course I should have cited the previous attempt at such a camp outside the border of yUK-Calais. How did that work out for you?

It was a Theresa May project, so most would say it was doomed from the start.

John Vasc said...

'And then send them home.'
Some problems there:
1) They've usually jettisoned all traces of their ID, real age and home country before embarcation.
2) Even where their home country is known, it will usually refuse to take them back: more mouths to feed etc.
3) The ones who genuinely are refugees can't realistically be returned to a war or civil war zone.
4) Even employing specialised linguists to test their backstories (as Germany has discovered) merely identifies those who are lying and are *not* from where they say. It can't identify where they really *are* from. All they have to do is to pretend not to understand their native tongue, and to refuse to name their country of origin.

The desertification of sub-Saharan Africa increases annually, and the population curve is off the scale: in Chad and Niger women are actually *aiming* at having eight children. (Each :-)

In the Middle East too, el Nino and other factors have caused recent harvest failures. A drought in Iraq threatens the entire rice crop this year (just one example). In India, New Delhi is facing its severest water shortage for a long time, and it is predicted to actually run out of groundwater within the next two years. And the population of New Delhi - alone - is nearly 22 million people.

And all these people have no water but they do have tv and mobiles, and witness footage of an endless stream of young men processing into rich western countries... Naturally it gives them ideas.

There's no simple answer to all this. What if the migrants just ignore our attempts to stem the flow? There are rather a lot of them...And not many of us.

jack ketch said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jack ketch said...

There were two reports on the German evening news tonight that might be of interest to people here:

1. they did a piece on 'refugees' (German politicians and their MSM will only refer to 'refugees' not 'migrants' because 'migrants' are infact 'seeking refuge from poverty'). Apparently Albania is very keen to become Europe's 'refugee' bin/holding camp . Someone, might have been Albania's head honcho, was saying 'during the Yugoslav war we took in and cared for 600,000 refugees and we will have no problem taking in these ones as well' -or words to that effect (I was busy trying to find Albania on google maps). Albania hopes that by doing this it will speed up its entry into the EU and bring in some much needed coin.

2. (and it mystified me too) They reported on the summit between Macron and Merkel , who announced some kind of European Budget/Fund or something (I was still trying to locate Albania!). In the commentary after the piece , the reporter was saying that it is very definitely intended as a counter move against Trump's ....and Soros' attempts to harm the EU! Unfortunately the reporter didn't expand on his thinking because to lump Soros in with Trump as an enemy of EU seems more than passing strange to me.

Anonymous said...

Obstacles to African exports are not what they were; African agricultural exports to the EU are largely tariff-free these days. Adding value on the African side may not be easy; there are good reasons for shipping food and other perishable items like coffee in a raw state and processing them near where they're consumed. Advanced agricultural societies such as New Zealand don't try to add value before shipping.

In Africa the trade barriers are increasingly on the import side, with "green" bans or very high tariffs on importing secondhand electronics, textiles and/or motor vehicles into African countries; the impact on their economies must be severe.

A practical problem for foreign direct investment is the OECD convention on bribery, which makes it illegal for UK citizens (amongst others) to pay the facilitation payments that local officials (even, for example, the police) request from the public to do their normal job.

TrT said...

The problem with camps is they become permanent.

In Ethiopia today, they are more people reliant on food aid, than there were people when Bob saved the world.
In the very best possible harvest, Ethiopia still needs food aid to feed half its population.
And that's getting worse not better.

Holding camps in North Africa might start with a few thousand residents, but it would be a few million, then hundreds of millions, within decades

Who will feed them, clothe them?
Sure, EUrope could buy food and clothes

But who's going to distribute it and cook it? Who's going to stop the residents raping and killing the cooks?
So we need EU military police in the camps
How will the courts and prisons work?
Who will write the laws?

There are now 250million residents
Half if them born there
Who provides schools?
What are they taught?

And on and in it goes.

Anonymous said...

Niger is an Islamic state right at the bottom of HDI. Yet women in Niger plan to have six to eight children.

Clearly they are planning a trip to Europe or the EU will be coming to them.

Anonymous said...

AI is going to close whatever few employment opportunities for illegal African immigrants, though these should be available for the locals.

The only other opportunities are as security guards, footballers, athletes. There is only a very limited number of these. That means criminal activity like drugs, prostitution, trafficking. If and when caught, a comfortable stay in European prisons.

I wonder what European politicians were thinking when they came up with the brilliant idea that everyone can go to any county in the West as if by right.