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Monday, 1 June 2020

No-deal seems like a done deal

As the claims, accusations and counter claims bounce back and forth across the Channel this week between David Frost and M Barnier in advance of what is likely to be the final round of talks, at least in advance of an intervention by the Prime Minister with VDL, take comfort in considering that it is all just window dressing and that no-deal is now pretty much inevitable. As John Keiger writes in the Speccie
After Britain’s chief negotiator’s broadside of a letter a few weeks ago on the need for the EU negotiators to get real, David Frost added a further nail to the negotiation's coffin. On 27 May, he announced that a fishing deal with the EU would be ‘very difficult’. But in reality, each Brexit negotiator is merely going through the motions. The pointilliste dots of individual decisions made elsewhere clearly paint a no-deal Brexit picture.
Keiger lists the manifold factors that predicate against a deal. Liability for the EU €750bn bailout, markets so distorted by state-aid that the EU playing field now has the slope and contours of a Welsh village rugby pitch and the fact that business has already decided that a no-deal outcome is the one for which to plan. Not only is Nissan deserting Spain for the UK but the company may close their Renault plant in France also, and bring Micra production back to the UK. Macron, having just bunged Renault €5bn, is not happy.

Over the weekend we have had the opening salvos, summarised effectively by the Daily Express. First an 'ultimatum' from M Barnier that he will walk away from talks if the UK doesn't back down on our red lines, then our chaps saying the EU was being unrealistic. This public bombast will continue. In the past we've allowed the French to do all the histrionic shouting, considering somehow that it was beneath us, but a new age under Boris has brought a touch of the Twickenham bleachers to our approach, and we now shout back. If Keiger is right, it's actually about establishing in advance who is to blame. Not us.

Four weeks to go. The pressure of the global corporates and foreign interests on the UK press and media will continue. They're not helped by the tsunami of QE that is artificially inflating asset prices like the skin of  a Peking duck; once the air has been let out, there is actually very little flesh on those sparse bones, but today it's hard to argue that it's the prospect of a no-deal that is depressing share prices.

There remains a flash of amusement in the pro-globalist publicity offensive. In the Telegraph, which has bled readers as the Barclay Brothers have abandoned their pro-Brexit stance, it's Jeremy Warner who is today the prophet of gloom and despondency. I'm eagerly anticipating AEP's first ever bouncy and optimistic take on our economic prospects.


DeeDee99 said...

No deal is better than "any old deal" and vastly better than the vassal status the EU wants to force on us.

Boris shouldn't waste any more time on them. Having comprehensively wrecked it, he's now got an economy to rebuild and the focus must now be on a trade deal with the USA and stregthening links with the Anglosphere and wider Commonwealth.

Anonymous said...

Sixty-four thousand dead and rising, and all that some people can do is to froth at the mouth about a little ring of stars on their number plates, and the colour of a bit of paper in their pocket.

Not that it will get you anywhere for some time. Greece and Cyprus have joined Spain in closing their doors to the British until the government here reverses its policy of pathogen-mediated selective genocide, and gets the infections down to something like their rates.

Just four deaths were recorded from covid 19 in Spain on Saturday. That's government.

Anonymous said...

Au contraire!

Dealing with the EU is like breaking up with an over-emotional lover; the opposite of love is not hate, it is indifference. If the EU don't want a deal they'd just stop talking, shrug shoulders and walk away. We're getting false 'hate', they want/need a deal. Even a part-time lover is better than none.

Enjoy the histrionics!

Mark said...

As the baby eating bishop of Bath and Wells once said....."have you ever considered a career in the church!"

Mark said...

Indeed, but I think the EU is the one who'll be getting a bit of Greek!

DiscoveredJoys said...

Anonymous @ 07:39

"...its policy of pathogen-mediated selective genocide"

It would be shocking if it were true - but Governments in most countries around the world acting in similar ways at the same time? No, ultrabole, or a fever dream.

Back in the real world I expect the EU negotiators to magically find ways of extending the end of June cut-off date for a couple of months while our negotiators studiously avoid looking interested. Then once "No Deal" becomes the practical expectation, businesses will get on and build it into their post-Covid recovery plans.

Mark said...

Thinking about it a bit more, how does the EU actually fail in the real world? The economic domesday machine that is the Euro will go off at some point of course, but would this necessarily destroy the EU?

There will be no more in/out referenda that's gor certain so the formal structure bound by the various treaties will always be there. Other countries constitutional/supreme courts may well overrule this or that but this would be like firing shells into a huge indestructsble protoplasmic blob.

The less real world power the EU has, the more "king has no clothes" moments, the more destructive it becomes.

Why would I say that?

This current bitch-fight over "coronabonds" shows how cynically the individual countries use the EU to advance national interests.

Difficult to see how, as the titanic slips further into the briny, the fight for the inadequate number of lifeboats not becoming ever more desperate.

I suspect the full poison that is the EU will soon start taking effect.

Dave_G said...

64,000 dead?

You mean 63,995 fatalities WITH the virus and 5 FROM the virus?

Even the Germans have shown that both the virus itself AND the policies introduced to mitigate it are FAKE.

Not that we'll see this anywhere in the MSM or alBeeb in particular.

Can I now say "told you so"?

Span Ows said...

No deal is better than a bad deal, but May is gone now...we're in June arf arf.

I am not sure but is anon/JPm/troll hinting that he thinks Spain's government is good? his exploded head clearly hasn't grown back yet; the brain power is patently low.

decnine said...

The negotiations end game won't begin until 1 July at the earliest. An extension would only delay the start of the end game for a year or two. All the exchanges happening now are 'entertainment' pretending that 30 June will be decisive in some way. Barnier will continue to play the same tune (resistance is futile; surrender now if you want to benefit from our best offer) until December.

DJK said...

I think anon's 64,000 dead is the excess deaths this year over and above the normal deaths (ONS figures). About 40,000 of these deaths have been certified (by medical practitioners, not some random bloke on the internet) as being due to Covid-19. The other 20,000 are presumably due to people dying of other causes now that the entire NHS has been re-dedicated to Covid-19. Either way, about 60,000 deaths are attributable to UK government policy --- a combination of lax policy allowing Covid-19 to take hold in the first place, then imposing a lockdown that is lax enough that the number of cases is falling only slowly, but harsh enough to keep people with severe medical conditions from obtaining the treatment they need.

I realise that some people don't like to hear this, but the figures speak for themselves. The UK is an outlier in having both a terrible death rate and a terrrible economic hit.

Span Ows said...

DJK, can you name a single country that hasn't had an economic hit? I don't think there is one. So that leaves the death rate. On this too you are wrong, NOBODY knows the number of deaths from COVID and I suspect we never will. The very fact that death certificates have COVID added almost willy-nilly also muddies the water even more.

Smoking Scot said...

Enjoyed the technique. Totally off topic, cherry picking falsehoods and deliberately inflammatory.

Greece and Cyprus want to save what they can of this season's peak for families and school holidays. Both are skidding on the bones of their butts financially and the cost of their lockdowns are slowly emerging - and it's awful.

However they're doing it by the book; they don't care what your nationality is, all they care about is what airport you've came from. There's a list out there - and they're sticking to it (link in the article).

So if you really, really want to visit Greece, then feel free to get to one of the approved airports and all they'll do is check your temperature.


So that's one falsehood debunked. (Still say the technique is first rate).

DJK said...

Span Owls: Everybody has had an economic hit, but the states that have controlled the outbreak (Czech Republic, Austria, the Baltics, Aus, NZ) have done rather better than those that haven't, for obvious reasons. From memory, about 35,000 people have died in hospital in the UK from Covid-19 or its effects. There may be some dispute at the margin, but ~40,000 total Covid-19 UK deaths is a fact. But that is irrelevant; 60,000 excess deaths have occurred this year from the outbreak, that HMG did little to prevent, and then the lockdown which HMG had to impose to correct the outbreak.

I assume you know how to use Google? If you check the statistics on excess deaths from the European statistics agency, you will find that the UK is by a country mile worse than any other EU country.

DiscoveredJoys said...


I don't know the answer... but most of the 'excess deaths' figures appear to be based on an average of the last 5 years. Averages may hide a lot of variation, so if your 'average' missed the 1951 flu epidemic, or 1957 (33,000 flu deaths), or 1968 (80,000 flu deaths) then your 'excess deaths' figures may be misleading (intentionally or not).

You can argue about the rights and wrongs of lockdown (hindsight is wonderful) but if we get a second surge of infections me may be grateful for the capacity we have been given time to assemble.

Tim the Coder said...

I was interested to see the EU's proposed €750bn Covid bailout will be raised in the Financial markets.
Now which financial markets would they be then....
The multi-trillion market of St Macron sur la mere?

Or London perhaps, except that the 'no deal' intransigence will preclude that.
The EU begging from the Americans in New York. Oh, I have to see this.

Mark said...

I don't think you'll have to wait long.

Span Ows said...

DJK, tell me how to use Google.

DJK said...

Span Ows:

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said @ 07:39

'Greece and Cyprus have joined Spain in closing their doors to the British until the government here reverses its policy of pathogen-mediated selective genocide..'

genocide n. the deliberate killing of a very large group of people, especially those of a particular ethnic group or nation.

In the absence of malice aforethought your argument that a 'selective genocide' is taking place is rather spurious. Mention any names and you'd be opening yourself to a very serious court action. Whoever you are you're a twat.


Span Ows said...

Now we've established you can post a link how about where we can 'check the statistics on excess deaths from the European statistics agency'?

Smoking Scot said...

The very worst thing Ghosn did was shift production of the Micra out of Britain. That thing they produced in India is awful and the current one is a Note platform that's bulked it to large with a range of gutless motors.

Nissan has something special in Sunderland and their build quality is one of the best. Ideally they'll extricate themselves from Renault. Let them carry on with more horrid, like their Twitsy and Twingo.

That UK will benefit isn't just about our departure; it's mixed in with business decisions made to appease France at Nissan's expense.

Let's hope Mitsubishi gets out too.

Dave_G said...

Let's get something straight. The rules for issuance of death certification were changed to allow even a NON-ATTENDING doctor to complete the certificate such AND allowed them to put 'Covid' as a cause without definitive proof (i.e. if they even SUSPECT Covid as a potential cause of death).

Accordingly we cannot believe anything we are told about the figures for deaths FROM Covid or WITH Covid or even IF Covid was present. This is how and why the figures are unreliable.

WE didn't make these rules for death certification - THEY did.

The system is corrupt and the link I show above adds to the suspicions we all have.

Dave_G said...

As to the 'suspected' cause of death I have direct experience of this as my neighbor passed away last week after a long bout of cancer and pneumonia.

He died with his partner present at his bedside (no Covid restriction) and with specific instruction for the hospital that she didn't need to self-isolate afterwards (no Covid issue).

A notice was later sent around the local community informing us of 'the first Covid death' in our community - no means to rectify this and, once the word is out, no going back of the scaremongering it instigated.

It's all a BIG LIE. Check out that link.

DJK said...

SO: I won't bother Googling on your behalf. The information is out there if you want it. But you're in denial about the scale of the problem in the UK, so you'd probably dismiss anything I posted.

It's of course true that if the Wuhan flu epidemic had taken place forty years ago we'd have just taken it on the chin and shrugged our collective shoulders at the numbers of dead. But that was then and this is now. Several Asian and Western countries have shown that it is possible to beat it back and the UK comes off extremely poorly by comparison.

Mark said...

So if we'd have "taken it on the chin" 40 years ago, it's not actually a big deal?

And if it isn't, what are we denying? I don't think there is a huge amount of unrequited love for the tories here. I voted for them in December but on strict conditions. Trolling by insulting Boris is rather a waste of time.

Make up your mind. Is this a genuine problem or a manufactured one?

Ed P said...

Mer is sea, mere is mother (can't do accents)

I hope your coding is not like Ferguson's...

Tim the Coder said...

Ed P
I was going to say it was was worse!: I dress to kill and I code the same way.
Seriously: fly on an Airbus.
Thanks for the French correction, you win the (Tim Worstall) Pendant of the Day Prize :) (sic)

I was just suggesting the EU equivalent of Buttfuch, Nebraska, Probably works better the way I typed it, though you are correct, I intended'mer' in 'merde'

Tim the Coder said...

....and don't get me started on the spaghetti shitefest Neil Pantsdown Gerfusson calls code.
I hope his Public Liability Insurance is paid up, 'cos when this is over...

I mean, it's not as if he hasn't a track record. Some 5 previous pandemics, and hysterical overpredictions every time. Only mystery is why the grown ups didn't laugh him out. Activate Lawyer: Seek & Destroy.

Span Ows said...

Ed P & Tim-the-coder:

"Mer is sea, mere is mother"

"St Macron sur la mere?"

Well judging by his taste in women this is a possibility.