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Showing posts with label Brexit chess. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Brexit chess. Show all posts

Saturday, 26 October 2019

An independence ref for Scotland may be a deal worth doing for Brexit

Charles Moore in the Telegraph this morning answers many of the points raised by readers here over a general election. The polls show that Brenda has changed her mind, old tribal loyalties have been over-ridden by Brexit, a divided Labour party split by bitter infighting and an electorate that understands why Boris needs an election now (unlike Heath in the Winter of 1974, who didn't) all mean that now only an election can move Brexit forward.

Moore suggests that a deal with the SNP may be the way to get a Commons majority for a simple Bill to over-ride the FTPA (and vote down any Remainer wrecking amendments). He doesn't say what would induce them to agree to such a deal - but we can all guess that the price would be Boris agreeing (if he wins the election) to a second independence Referendum. Polls also suggest that the SNP seats could increase to 50 - at the cost of Conservative and Labour seats there - surely also an attractive inducement.

My own feeling is, why not? Scotland's status as part of the United Kingdom is a matter for the people of Scotland. Personally, I think the demand for independence is less than people think. I suspect many Scots are quite alive to Sturgeon's calamitous period of governance though they like the idea of self-government. They will be aware of the massive failings of self-government now coming to light - most being due to the SNP's eyes being bigger than their tummy, as nanny used to say. And if there is a suspicion of an independent Scotland repeating the disaster of the Darien Scheme, by say creating a crypto-currency or gambling Scottish tax revenue on the craps tables at Vegas, Scots may well decide to keep ahold of nurse for fear of finding something worse.

Wargaming the options looks like being one of those games of 3D chess. And everything depends on what the EU Council decides next week. 

Would Scotland want to hand her fishing waters over to the EU?