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Thursday, 22 November 2018

Clean Brexit could depend on Corbyn

Like the Duracell bunny, Mrs May just keeps going. I'm beginning to think it's my fault. Back at the time of her Lancaster House speech, and knowing her reputation for dithering and indecision at the Home Office, I prayed hard for the Lord to give her a backbone of steel. I fear my prayers were answered. Be careful what you wish for, as they say.

The number of Conservative MPs in favour of voting to realise a Clean Brexit on WTO terms (yes, I like those words too - many thanks) is reckoned on Twitter to be over 80, and by the Telegraph to be over 60. Someone has also leaked the Cabinet minutes to the Telegraph - with a number of Cabinet Ministers keen to confirm to the paper that though they haven't resigned, the minutes prove they objected to aspects of the Robbins Treaty.

The Spanish and French are also helping by blackmailing Brussels into enhancing their claims to Gibraltar and British fish respectively. Germany wants to ensure the UK continues to shoulder her defence and security costs, so they don't have to spend their own money. All help in making the Robbins Treaty even less attractive to MPs - for it's our MPs on whom we must now rely.

Make no mistake - this is an international treaty. Once we've agreed it, we're bound by it. Hence Mrs May's indecent haste is forcing it through before the nation realizes the trap to which she is committing us.

AEP has the best tunes this morning;
There is no doubt that the EU weaponised the Irish border to shoehorn the UK into the customs territory, but I strongly suspect that the Cabinet Office, the Treasury, and the Prime Minister were complicit. It enabled the switch from a constitutional Brexit that respected core demand of democratic self-rule to a supply-chain Brexit that serves chiefly the interests of CBI multinationals, the foreign car industry, and EU-linked parts of the traded goods sector. It is not even a workable customs union.
Theresa May told MPs today that they "risk no Brexit at all" if they reject her deal. That is a risk that I am willing to take, for nothing can be worse than foreign legal writ in perpetuity, with no veto. Obviously it would be better to remain in the EU. My preference at this juncture is a no-deal on WTO terms, mindful that Mrs May’s failure to prepare has made this very hard. Global Britain’s report this week is right to argue that the costs of trading on this basis (until free trade deals are negotiated) have been systematically exaggerated by the Treasury and commercial interests talking their own book.
Needless to say, Parliament has set its face against any such action. It will impose a deal that ends its own legislative supremacy. My working assumption is that a bloc of Labour MPs will support Theresa May’s package and push it over the top in December. Britain will then be a legal prisoner until the EU sees fit to release us.
AEP is not necessarily right on this last point. With the DUP and 60 - 80 Conservative MPs voting against the deal, it will be up to Labour whether it get through the Commons or not. Corbyn (rightly) hates the EU. Will he now lead sufficient of his MPs in voting against May's poisonous deal, a deal that would prevent Labour from its manifesto State Aid commitments for decades to come?


mikebravo said...

I wouldn't put your faith in our quisling MP's.
It is they that have been happily selling us out for the last 40 years. The useless tories pretend to be "euro-sceptic" but never actually put up. It is just a ruse to garner votes from the gullible.
They will vote May's poisonous deal through "for the party" along with the scum party et all.
They are overwhelmingly remainers after all. Even those thar pretend to be not (like Cameron did).

In a couple of years when they pretend that the country can not function under the del they will vote "in the house" to take us back in "for our own good".
The whole thing has been a stitch up from the start.

Jack the dog said...

AEP this morning was excellent.

I think the thing hangs in the balance. Honestly I think there is actually quite a good chance the Robbins Betrayal will not get through parliament.

However, what happens after that is anybody's guess. Most likely an extension to article 50 while the clowns keep clowning.

My preference would be for a million well behaved people to surround westminster indefinitely making sure the only way in and out is by helicopter. And just to stay there burning effigies of May, Robbins, Merkel and Macron until the whole sorry business is settled.

John Brown said...

The Irish border has indeed been weaponised and successfully used by Mr. May and her UK EU collaborators to lock us permanently into the EU despite there being ANPR cameras at the main border crossing between Dublin and Belfast to monitor customs duty as well as VAT etc. and Mr. Varadkar and Mr. Juncker have already guaranteed there wold be no “hard” border in the event of a “no deal” :

Mrs. May and her collaborators are preparing us for surrender to the EU’s blackmail to implement trade sanctions in the event of a clean break/no deal.

We shall see a Parliamentary coup by the remainer elitists to keep us in the EU against the referendum result “in the national interest”.

We will not have a chance to leave the EU until the 17.4m voters who voted for Brexit stop voting for remainer MPs.

As someone said : “The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.”

DeeDee99 said...

MPs have been betraying the British people and transferring our Sovereignty to the EU for over 40 years. I have no faith whatsoever that they won't do the same this time.

This country needs a revolution.

Span Ows said...

What DeeDee99 said.

jack ketch said...

DUP and 60 - 80 Conservative MPs voting against the deal, -Raed

I wouldn't hatchet your counts before they chicken. As the Moog discovered this week, expecting tory MPs to show some backbone is foolhardy at best. The DUP will, in the final instant, not want to risk a friend of the IRA becoming PM. A mythological red line down the Irish sea is bad but , with enough bribes and fudge cake, the DUP will live with them something to grizzle about..., but the thought of JC as PM is, in the Unionist world view, akin to praying to the devil.

As far as I can see May is going to get it through the Conmens, such a pity we don't have an upper house of unelected peers with the power to stop it (or amend it to buggery and back).

Jack the dog said...

It seems our traditional European friends Spain and France will refuse to sign up because it is too lenient with us.

Still doubtless Treason May's next great triumph is going to be to persuade them to take gibraltar and our fishing grounds in perpetuity.

I can just about handle the fact that the PM has gone certifiably insane and is pushing this deal having convinced herself it is something it isn't.

Which it isn't.

But how can any sentient being possibly imagine this is acceptable. It is SO fucking bad and is going to get worse before it is signed, presumably in a railway carriage outside Versailles.

How can there POSSIBLY be any propect of it passing?

It is literally beyond belief, and believe me I have precious little faith in the backbone of our political class.

Domo said...

"Make no mistake - this is an international treaty. Once we've agreed it, we're bound by it."
Unless we nuke Berlin and ask if anyone else wants to try and hold us to the treaty.
Chamberlain held in his hand a piece of paper as well, didn't do him much good.

"MPs have been betraying the British people and transferring our Sovereignty to the EU for over 40 years. I have no faith whatsoever that they won't do the same this time."

How many have been willing accomplices and how many just nodding dogs?
It's all a bit different this time, a minority government, itself fractured, multiple opposition parties with their own splits.
Even the arch loyalist SNP might vote against the deal, forcing a clean brexit, hoping for an election in which they can retake Scotland and try to rejoin the EU.

jack ketch said...

and as if by magic, the new improved 'political declaration' contains just enough fudge for the tories to back May.

Budgie said...

Bearing in mind that the DWA is primarily the EU rules for our non-transition transition, we can then bear in mind that - having swallowed the DWA - the permanent deal will not look much different. It is as I said some months ago: the (supposedly dead) Chequers plan pushed through by Remain Labour MPs (and supine Tories). That is the most likely outcome.

In 2009 the MPs expenses scandal erupted. This was peculation on a grand scale - the majority of MPs were involved, some still in Parliament such as the Remain Lord Hailsham. The financial corruption has now made way for political corruption.

In 2015 MPs gave us the right to make the decision between the two deals they offered: Leave or Remain. They have now convinced themselves that remaining in the EU's single market and customs union (the back door to much else of the EU) is Leave. Yet during the Referendum campaign we were explicitly assured by both campaigns that Leave included leaving all EU competences.

Frankly the existing deal is better than that. But neither deal is anything like as good as being independent. If our MPs will not honour our vote then there is no point to Westminster at all.

jack ketch said...

For those who don't speak legal latin or are unable to google; inter alia is short for the pathologist's latin 'inter alimentary' and is a posh way of saying 'the victim was arse raped'.

Putting the 'con' in 'context'.

Mr Ecks said...

Jizza is in a cleft stick.

If he votes with the FFC then he pisses off millions of his soon to be former voters who went back to ZaNu last year because he deceitfully promised a proper Brexit.

He also keeps the cow into 2022 and after four more years of infighting his shower of shite may not exist.

Nor are the supposed 45 Bliarite rebels likely. All their anti-Jizza talk has led to fuckall so far because scum love and want power and money and they won't get any if they are deselected by Momentum thugs.

He doesn't want a no deal Brexit because he knows that such--despite all the bollocks-- might save the Tory Party despite itself.

Loads of British firms are already prepared for No Deal because they are businesses and need to b e ready for contingencies. Frankly fuck the govt and if it is prepared or not.

So Jizz has more than a few problems. The DUP know Corbyn or worse McNasty are likely to win after the FFC has finished fucking her own Party so they will have to deal with that sooner or later whatever happens(unless we go No Deal). So why let Euro-shite piss on us as well.