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Thursday, 15 November 2018

It's got to be NO DEAL

Oliver Burkeman presented a neat little 15 minute programme on radio 4 yesterday - available on podcast - that really is worth a listen. It explains why pushing for a No Deal outcome that sends Europe into chaos and forces each side to take an economic hit may not only be the rational choice, but the beneficial choice. The answer is faith, hope and charity. 

If we accept May's humiliating deal it will leave only the members of the CBI, the FTSE100 and the global corporatists of the European Round Table happy. If GDP hardly changes, she can claim it as a victory. But this will be short lived. And it is a victory for international money, not for the United Kingdom. Both Leavers and Remainers will become even more angry, even more negative, even more disillusioned with politics and the political process. The nation will become polarised, divided and discourse will become violent, vituperative and schismatic. The smug grins on the faces of Barnier and his corrupt cabal at Britain's grovelling humiliation will become unbearable. The EU will try to keep the UK in this permanent state of internal division and rock-bottom morale until the nation is too exhausted to resist further.

A No Deal exit next March on the other hand will cause short-term chaos. The big matters will be swiftly sorted and both the UK and EU will get back to almost normal service on key movements and facilities. A host of lesser matters will remain unresolved, and both we and the EU will take a hit to GDP. Unemployment will increase and manufacturing production will decrease. Most of all it will allow us as a nation to come together and focus on the future - we have shared goals of peace and prosperity, we want cordial and mutually helpful relations with the 27 nations of Europe that are members of the EU, we have great strengths. Most of all we will work together for a new future, a future of hope. It will give us a chance to make changes that allow greater intergenerational equity, deeper local democracy, a more trusted politics, a bigger stake in housing, secure in national defence and with the aid and encouragement of our anglophone cousins from the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and, yes, India. But only the shock, the disruption, the hiatus of a sudden exit and the challenges it brings will achieve this.

So it has to be No Deal. But not a No Deal of hatred, anger and nihilism but a No Deal that is the only way to heal this fractured nation and secure a future for all in the British Isles. 



right-writes said...

Yes Raedwald, it is as you say, although I am not so sure that the hit on GDP will be all that great, if anything at all.

I have written here in comments and in many other places that there is no history of democratic nations going to war with each other. They would far rather pursue the mutual interest of rubbing along with each other in friendly competition. Except Germany of course, the germans are genetically damaged, and need to be penned in ay all times.

The biggest hazard is that the remaining EU will, like a monster deprived of its head, flail uncontrollably and hit out in its zeal to maintain its attack on the former democratic nations, its members.

But that is more likely to happen if we don't leave, because it is already crashing.

Thud said...

Just why would no deal heal things? I'd see much more chaos ahead if that's how it unfolds, I'm happy with this deal as I've always worked with what I have in my life not what I want and it worked for me at least.

john cheshire said...

I agree, a complete exit from the EU in march next year is the only viable solution.
And if the traitors in the HoP sign us up to Mrs May's proposals, we need to say loud and clear that we will only vote for a party in the next General Election that commits to declaring UDI ( a unilateral declaration of independence) from the EU with immediate effect.

DeeDee99 said...

My MP, Oliver Letwin, has just replied to my email basically saying that he supports Treason May's deal in order to provide stability for business and because manufacturing, in particular, is concerned about its long-term future if there is No Deal.

So as far as he is concerned the wishes of the CBI trump the wishes of 17.4 million voters. "Business" is more important than Sovereignty and democracy, or honouring the EU Referendum. Needless to say, he won't get my vote. But that won't worry him; there is no opposition to speak of in West Dorset although many of his Remainer colleagues aren't so fortunate.

This stitch-up of a Deal will resolve nothing. And it certainly won't bring the country together. It will drive it further apart.

right-writes said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
right-writes said...

O lordy... I have just listened to your recommended podcast, and methinks that the reason for all your attacks on conservative commenters here in the last week or so, are due to you now being detached from your homeland.

Instead of pining for the fjords, you are like a dirty mack merchant creeping around Soho, looking at the polythene covered porn being sold by the treacherous BBC.

In short, that broadcast was pure poison.

DiscoveredJoys said...

I've scrolled through the 'draft deal' document and a great deal of it could stand as a graceful separation of administrative responsibilities. The biggest problem is the indefinite customs union that means trading agreements with other non-EU countires will be almost impossible, and NI being used as a stick to beat us repeatedly every time we show a bit of 'non level playing field' behaviour. Plus, of course, it is Remainers Exit (Rexit) rather than the Referendum Brexit we voted for (or against)

So, go clean Brexit on WTO terms and use the separation of powers of the 'draft deal' to sort out the relationship with the REU.

Cuffleyburgers said...

I've a word for this - Nego-surrender.


Raedwald said...

R-w - I'm sure if you're unhappy you can find an echo-chamber with other far-right, authoritarian voices shouting away at eachother in hatred and bitterness. But this blog isn't such a place.

Mr Ecks said...

No deal it is by God.

But forget all the lying Project Fear fantasy bullshit about shortages and chaos and all the same old cockrot.

Large numbers of British firms have already made preparations because they are commercial enterprises and need to be ready for what happens.

Unlike the politically controlled and Treason May "led" dross of the BluLabour British State and their wannabe EU masters.

jack ketch said...

I find myself in agreement with Battenberk. Given a choice between NoDeal and May's plan , I'd rather the NoDeal.

Just seen that Raab has lose one BreXsec might be considered carelessness....

right-writes said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
jack ketch said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
right-writes said...

I am not sure why you are so hostile raedwald, what has happened to you?

There is nothing "far right" or authoritarian about me.

My whole reason for bothering to read stuff like this and for commenting on it is to try to counter leftist BBC twaddle, of which far-rightism is a fictitious invention, too embarrassing for them to admit that it is the same as their leftist ideology.

I haven't changed my views, I am still a right-wing classical liberal.

You have changed, either that, or you have got hold of the wrong end of the stick.

I still want government and bureaucracy to get out of my way, I still want the NHS to be uninvented, I still want the freedom for people to move hither and thither at their own whim. What I don't want is for a massive centralised undemocratic bureaucratic government to stick its hand in my pocket and steal everything I earn between January and October in order to feed it, its bureaucracy, its theories, its agendas, its nudges or its corporatist ideas.

I have never altered that view, since at 15, I began to read the writings of Alan Wharton, and support the patriotism of those old Labour men and Tories that believed in the people rather than the international corporates, it was markedly different to government flag waving jingoism.

It is why I voted in my first vote against the EEC in the 1975 referendum, as a young solicitors clerk I had read the 1973 act which incorporated the treaty of Rome following the 1972 ECA, and decided that those "mavericks" were right not to accept the lies of Heath and Healey (bilderbergers I later discovered)....

None of this could be further away from authoritarianism, or far left/rightism.

You are being most insulting, and the worst thing is, that it has come out of nowhere, it is so extreme that it is almost like you are a different person...

Like your blog has been taken over by something underhand, something unseemly, something unpleasant.

Mr Ecks said...

Jack Ketch--your post above is your best of all time.

jack ketch said...

dum-dum-dum another one bites the dust...

Raedwald said...

RW - If you read back over all my posts you'll find I haven't changed my view. I'm still the Libertarian / classical Liberal I always have been, against totalitarianism, authoritarianism, racism, bigotry, intolerance, censorship and threats to democracy.

However, in the past I've tolerated those whose views I find repugnant posting comments with links and cut and paste to some frankly abhorent sites. On this I have changed - no more. I've had to compromise on censorship to curtail racism and bigotry.

And that broadcast was academically credible, reasonable and balanced - and also managed to smuggle the truth of Christ's love through the BBC editors. I really can't understand what else it contained that provoked such spittle-flecked invective from you. Yes, I do want a world in which little black children can hold hands with little white children. What's wrong with that?

Dave_G said...

The issue of Brexit is easily, simply and readily resolved.


Nothing concentrates minds like the prospect of no money. And if there's anything the EU needs most it's our cash.

The Governments 'resolution' of the Brexit problem began with them conceding massive payments to the EU for an indeterminate length of time when it should have been leverage to get a Brexit that satisfied all our concerns.

The money aspect seems to have been largely forgotten - certainly there seems to be a reluctance to recall it or make any mention of it in discussions with the media - but wasn't PMT May's position that 'they won't get a penny of we don't get a solution'?

I don't call the terms they came up with a 'solution' by any definition therefore bring PMT May to book and remind her that we still have the upper hand - if we have the balls to use it.

rapscallion said...


This "deal" is not a deal. It is the equivalent of going into the railway carriage at Compiegne and signing the document of unconditional surrender to a certain A Hitler.

It effectively makes the UK a vassal of a hostile state.

rapscallion said...

It's an odd sensation being on the same side as jack ketch on this one. No Deal has got the be the best option. And Radders, r-w is right on this one. If you regard what he says as "far-right authoritarianism" then your political compass is well and truly broken.

Wessexboy said...

Raedwald, I listened to the podcast and draw different conclusions to you. I found little connect between it and your subsequent post.
Agree with rapscallion on r-w, (apart from his remark about the Germans!)
I enjoy your blog for the variety, but also tolerance of, different views expressed as well as original content.

Anonymous said...

No Deal will be best.

How can we sign a deal with the scheming weasels of the EU ? It wouldn't be worth any more than "peace in our time".

Don Cox

Anonymous said...


I've been reading your blog for years and have greatly appreciated your perspective and wisdom.

Please take this observation as its meant, with love and concern:

Your views are going increasingly squishy. For what reason I cannot say.

That podcast is utter bollocks. The reason for all the anger in the west is that the elites are leading their countries into utter destruction. Trump is not a root cause. He is the reaction of an increasingly desperate people who are being screwed over. Unlimited immigration will destroy everything WE hold dear. You now live in Austria I believe. There was a report recently that said 40% of under 7's in Austria are migrant kids. 20 years from now who will they be voting for?

If you want an alternative point of view, watch some of the interviews Tucker Carlson has given recently pushing his book, which is well worth a read.

Thud said...

You will not get your no deal exit, you will get an a snap election in next few months which will bring corby to power and then we are well and truly fucked.

jack ketch said...

Your views are going increasingly squishy. For what reason I cannot say."

I see a hardening of Raed's views rather than a softening- as he said himself: "On this I have changed - no more. I've had to compromise on censorship to curtail racism and bigotry."

Anonymous said...

Jack - a rise in leftist authoritarianism and censorship is not a positive move. The fact you applaud it is proof.

Poisonedchalice said...

Oh do come on, what on earth did you expect? Tell me how this would work in industry - I was once in charge of negotiation over a £17M project between my company and a well known bank. There were two key people working for the bank that were high up on the negotiating team (their side, not mine) and it became obvious that these two people were not in favour of the project at all; one because she would lose her job at the end of the project and the other because he was close to retirement and really could be arsed getting up early in the morning anymore. Neither were suited to being on the team and the project was suffering until finally the company saw sense and booted them off. Deal closed, implementation went ahead.

Who thought it was ever a bright idea to put a remainer in charge of leave? Think about it. What possible outcome could you expect? It's like asking Turkeys to vote for Christmas FFS! Now that everyone has seen that we are not actually leaving at all and we set to become some vassal state of the EU, there is trouble afoot. No shit Sherlock!

"Once you have paid the Danegeld, you will never be rid of the Dane"

right-writes said...

You suggest that your advertised broadcast was academically credible, I suggest you listen again. Here is my analysis:

I don’t see any rise in populist far right (or left) parties in Europe… The left wing/far right is already embodied in the internationalist agenda of the EU/UN that some democratically elected parties are attempting to resist… rather gently in my view, since apart from the UK, all wish to remain (at the moment) as members of the EU. Not only that, they also control the political lexicon and set the agenda.

The casual association of Donald Trump with those mythical far-right/left wing parties did not go unnoticed either.

And we are all angry, apparently… I would suggest only angry that having been asked for our advice, since we believe this nation to be a democracy, and then not just ignored but rebuked, put down and gainsaid, to the extent that any beliefs that we ever had that democracy was a thing are now dead.

Then a psychologist is dragged on from stage left and he tells us that the winners of this referendum are bent on causing chaos, in the hope that out of chaos some sort of order will be restored, which insinuates that before the referendum, we were all united in our acceptance that our lives have been put into permanent flux by the increasing demands of the bureaucracy and the corporatist businesses.

That Donald Trump is causing chaos, of course the reality is that he is attempting to govern, against a group of sore politicians and media moguls who wish to overturn another democratic vote, because it doesn’t suit their internationalist agenda.

The reality is of course that Trump has increased growth in the USA to the tune of nearly 5%, that more of the traditionally permanently unemployed are now working, that because of tax cuts, the corporates are now repatriating their profits that have been squirrelled away in foreign countries. That he has studiously managed to break ISIS without going to war with either Russia or Syria, whereas the three previous internationalist US leaders had caused real chaos at this point in their presidencies, by going to war.

Then some woman philosopher started waffling about Roosevelt’s New Deal, the introduction of socialist big government in America as a brilliant solution, when what it really was was the slowing of the recovery that was already underway. Apparently “rights” stave off fear, but what was actually happening was that people were being relieved of their rights. It set the scene for the rise in southern US apartheid which did not exist before, and is still being born in the deeper south, who still hate the north for their duplicity over the creation of the union.

It then goes on to talk about how the party system led to nationalism and inevitable industrial warfare as if the two were inevitable consequences of people becoming free from the class rigidity under the old fashioned feudal system, which at least had a traditional order about it. It criticises the concept of the nation state, where it was common for people to fire guns into people’s faces… Apparently not noticing that big centralised government is holding a cannon at all of our heads.

End of part 1....

right-writes said...

Part 2...

At this juncture, brexit is mentioned for the first time, and there were apparently three emotions at work, “enthusiasm, anger and fear”… Apparently “stronger in europe” stood for the status quo and enthusiasm, whilst on the other hand “vote leave” was looking to disrupt the status quo and was angry and desired inevitable chaos,. Both were using fear as their main weapon….

The reality of course was that the most successful lobby group was “stronger in Europe” since it was actually the government led by David Cameron and Gideon Osborne, who put the fear of god, with the assistance of the media up enough people to make the result a lot closer than it would have been. Vote Leave did nothing and had no proper spokesmen, which is now apparent, in that half of the leading spokesman are sitting at the cabinet table nodding through the traitor May’s “deal. Without their efforts it would have been at least 80/20 in favour of leave. There had been consistent polling from the 1980’s onward that demonstrated that most people knew that we were being led astray by the creation of the EU, that we had been lied to.

The comparative closeness of the final result gave the impetus for the hardcore corporatist remainers to launch the angriest campaign yet, they have gone to war with the ordinary folk of this country. And the forces of the establishment are so powerful that it looks like, those of whom disagree are angry nazis, when in fact we are just a bit confused at how winning a referendum can be traduced in the manner that is unfolding.

Apparently the status quo of staying in the EU is a future of stability and order… WELL NOT ACCORDING TO THAT MERKEL WOMAN, just this week. She wants gestapo on the streets of Europe, maintaining order… Perhaps she is pining for her east german homeland?

“Ihre Papiere bitte”!

Leaving without a deal though is a known entity, we already do business and have relations with the rest of the world along the lines set out by the various worldwide agreements, commonly known as WTO.

Then they wheel out that other great lie… “climate change” as if it is something to do with human activity. Apparently we need more authoritarian crap foisted on us by big government… i.e. the organisations that are causing ALL of the human mess, like nuclear explosions. accidents and waste leaks. (as just one example), there are many others.

According to this chap Anger is about dominance and power… Well maybe, but in this brexit situation, who or what is trying to exert power and dominate?

Martin Luther King is then dragged out, as if he was some kind of saint… even though I am sure he was intrinsically a good and gentle man. His ethos was a development of the human socialism of Ruskin/Tolstoy and Gandhi, that of “passive resistance”… Passive anger.

Rather than pure logic… that because we are human, no matter how wealthy we ALL become, there will ALWAYS be a bottom 10-15% along with a top 10-15%, and a middle 70-80% rump of ordinariness.

As we can see in Northern Ireland, or Croydon, or Alabama, if you don’t segregate people from birth, they do rub along quite happily with each other and there is nothing wrong with that…

ALL the division is caused by governments and left wing socialists’ or if you must far right national SOCIALISTS… none of whom are actually right wing and all of whom ARE AUTHORITARIAN, the very antithesis of liberal right-wingism.

Anonymous said...

Raedwald said @ 08:39

'R-w - I'm sure if you're unhappy you can find an echo-chamber with other far-right, authoritarian voices shouting away at each other in hatred and bitterness. But this blog isn't such a place.'

Juvenile response. Folk trying to avoid becoming a minority in their own land are somehow authoritarian? How does that work with a majority of the world still being monocultural and happy with it - more than willing to fight to keep it that way as well. You made it a race thing with your café au lait crack at ethnic Englishmen. We have origins and without it we're nothing. Fuck me mate there are more people with the surname Patel than there are English, with 65,000 different surnames. Café au lait isn't diversity: it is extinction for any ethnic group, white or black. The Almighty made us different so who are you to cancel it out? Your imperatives do not match mine is all you've got on me. Far-right my arse.

Folk like you would have run away at the Battle of Maldon.


jack ketch said...

Folk like you would have run away at the Battle of Maldon. -Steve

Sounds like an eminently sensible response to a crushing defeat. Fighting to your last breath might make for some glorious poetry but that's all. At least at Dunkirk the British had the sense to run away.

And what is with all the hate and adhoms towards Raed today? His gaff, his rules.

Raedwald said...

Likewise Steve - I'm sure you can find a site where the author is sympathetic to 'white ethnocide' theorists and hostility to Britons of other races and faiths - but this blog isn't it.

Now anymore hijacking of this BREXIT thread by off topic whining and I'll close comments.

James Higham said...

All action today.

Bill Quango MP said...

The Governments 'resolution' of the Brexit problem began with them conceding massive payments to the EU for an indeterminate length of time when it should have been leverage to get a Brexit that satisfied all our concerns.

And obviously so.
Yet the EU demanded the money or no deal at all, and May instantly caved instead of saying "Bye then."

Budgie said...

It is a great pity that the few Tory Leave MPs did not see the inevitable. They were warned, but refused to countenance any criticism of their precious Conservative party. Now they act all indignant because the draft "Withdrawal Agreement" is Chequers writ large. Surprise!

Their tribalism blinded them. If they had attempted to remove Theresa May after the 2017 general election fiasco, or even after the Chequers betrayal, this country would be in a better position. But no, like broody hens, they've sat on their Tory eggs - except one has turned out to be a cuckoo Remain, and the other three are rotten.

Parliament gave us the choice of two deals: we decided on balance to Leave, even after all the government and BBC propaganda for Remain. But the establishment has snatched it back. Listen to them braying in Parliament about "deals" and "compromises". They cannot even bully us without re-defining words - Leave become "hard Brexit" and anyone wanting a hard Brexit (the WTO deal) is "far right" or worse, aligned with Trump.

Truly our establishment is broken, and corrupt: the LibLabCon parties, the civil service, the BBC (which I don't even listen to any more), the CBI, and the rest of the rotten establishment.

Sgt 73rd Regt said...

I have been looking at at Britains efforts to leave the EU from the far side of the world (Australia)since Brexit and I still cannot grasp why it is so hard for Britain to leave.

Up until the early seventies Britain had always been a major trading partner for Australia then along came Heath and his attitude to our long partnership was “So what?” Government is about the national interest, not emotion. Britain had to make its future in Europe and we could make our futures somewhere else.

So our dairy, horticultural, beef and lamb exports were largely replaced by imports from the EU and our citizens were sent to the “Others” queue at Heathrow.

Britain long ago withdrew from what was called East of Suez and while we and the Americans fought communism in South-East Asia, after the Sixties Britain largely abandoned that task. Britain threw its lot in with Europe.

So Australia had to forge new markets in Asia and North America.It was hard going but we stuck at it, securing free trade agreements with the US, the major economies of north Asia including China and with much of South East Asia.

Politically, we built fruitful relations with the Asean countries, we’ve forged strong ties with China, Japan and Korea and are building a good relationship with India.

Why can't Britain do the same thing and just tell the EU this is what is going to happen, like it or lump it?

right-writes said...

@Sgt 73rd Regt:

Yes sir...

Mrs. May has secured something unique in British history.

When nobody thought that there could ever be a more treacherous British PM than Heath... An incompetent traitor who cared nothing for the Commonwealth, nothing for the British people and nothing for British infrastructure, or even his own pride...

Mrs. May has gone even further, she has eclipsed the man.

Span Ows said...

Don't call Sergeant's 'Sir', they are better than that.

Apart from that, I agree 100%

Span Ows said...

damn that apostrophe!

Anonymous said...

Sgt 73rd. I like your spirit.
I meanwhile find it difficult to grasp why we need trade deals at all. People and companies in every corner of the world just want to buy and sell stuff to each other. Why do we need governments to interfere with that.

Budgie said...

Sgt 73rd Regt said "... and I still cannot grasp why it is so hard for Britain to leave". Me neither.

All we need say is "we will be independent" then act on that principle to overcome the technical difficulties. Those difficulties arise because we have been tied much tighter to the EU than ever the Remain establishment (europhiles) would admit. And partly because the EU is vindictive.

And unfortunately the Tory Leave politicians have not been honest with us, or themselves. They have put loyalty to the Conservative party ahead of their principles and ahead of the nation. Consequently they have been routinely outmanoeuvred by the UK Remain establishment including Theresa May.

We know that Labour politicians are a bunch of tribal charlatans. The Tory politicians are revealed as just the same. Without independence it does not matter whether we have May or Corbyn. The only sensible course is to support UKIP - at least until we regain independence.

John Vasc said...

Yes, absolutely.Worth pointing out that the short-term pain will all be as a result of lazy or treasonous civil servants not wanting to 'bother'. Traditional enemies of Great Britain lining up to stick a knife in. Unions complaining about 'extra stress'. Incompetent ministers unable to see the obvious and incapable of exercising the muscles of decision after all those decades of taking the money and doing nowt for it.
And above all, poor, crassly, lamentably appalling leadership.

Which is why we need a strong, determined leader who will do a Churchill and demand 'action this day' daily, hourly. Who will sack from morning to night until the people are in place, and whose intentions will be so obviously fearless, tireless and unselfish that the people will be entirely on his side.

(Hint: that's not Theresa May.)