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Friday, 1 February 2019

You can smell the fear in Brussels

The EU's unelected officials are thugs and bullies, used to throwing their weight around without any voters behind them to teach them sense. They exist in a vacuum, in a rarefied world of pretence and privilege that rarely brings them into contact with reality. Hence they are glacial in reacting to risks and threats, such as the coming financial crisis which will engulf the Eurozone. But like all bullies, when fronted up, when challenged, when thwarted they freeze.

The United Kingdom Parliament has stood firm against their attempts to 'punish' the UK. They are now faced with either modifying or removing the Backstop to the UK's satisfaction or seeing us leave in a Clean Brexit. That is the reality, and one can smell the fear in Brussels. Sure, we have made mistakes. Our biggest was to entrust the draft treaty negotiations to a child. As Fraser Nelson writes in the Telegraph
This time, she needs a proper team. Leaving it to a civil servant, Olly Robbins, was always going to lead to disaster. The mess he led her into – agreeing a “backstop” arrangement with the EU that Britain might be stuck in forever – was never going to pass through Parliament. She’s taking Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, whom MPs trust to spot any trap in the EU small print.
Well, there are still plenty of Robbins' mistakes in the draft treaty, but none we can't live with in the short term. We can pick the bones out of it as and when we must.

Parliament's backbone is strengthened if it has public opinion behind it, and the polls are now swinging to a public preference for a Clean Brexit. The British have seen the nasty face of the EU, the bullying, the arrogance and the intransigence and have turned against it. People are prepared to take the hit and get it over with. Yet again, British people have more faith in themselves than do many of their MPs.

Most of all, the unelected officials are now worrying about getting money out of us. Yesterday the threat shifted subtly to 'If you don't pay us you won't get a trade deal', to which we must reply 'Well, no trade deal, no geld'.

We really do want to continue the best possible relations with all the nations of Europe, but they really need to wise up - the trolls, fools and poseurs in the Berlaymont, the folie de grandeur that infects Brussels, with all its silly little medals and petty distinctions, is not serving them well.


Poisonedchalice said...

Like you R, I sense the mood is changing. The EU has much to lose, not least the €39Bn that they need to fill the yawning hole that is already in their finances. And yesterday, they was a glimpse of a masterstroke, in that May has asked the poorer regions' MPs - those that voted to leave - to draw up a shopping list of investment opportunities that they can then spend. Labour won't like this, but they cannot block it can they?? And I for one can think of a whole raft of things outside of London (who voted leave, so don't deserve a penny) that I would like to see €39Bn spent on.

DiscoveredJoys said...

Arguably the ruling class don't do 'trade', it's beneath them. On the other hand there are accountants who run spreadsheets for them...

Lets say we are stuck with something like the £39 billion, negotiated as part of the Withdrawal Agreement, or by piecemeal negotiations after a clean Brexit. That's a lot of money... but it is still less than the projected cost of HS2. Guess how I would 'find the money'!

Dave_G said...

Like a few people, I was surprised at Gina Millers comments on QT last night but they were certainly valid.

Everyone looks upon the DWA as centering around the Backstop - she rightly pointed out that there are 500+ OTHER pages in that document that strip the UK of competence in many aareas and that the DWA effectively locks us into EU control with zero opportunity to escape and for all eternity.

THIS is what we need to talk more about. The numbers mean nothing if we lose the ability to actually LEAVE.

I'm sure the EU would forego the £39bn to give May the 'success' she seeks and destroys all opposition to the DWA in the next vote in the House.

Bait and Switch?

Eye's and ball's folks.

Mr Ecks said...

Treason May knows her BRINO is her best chance to wreck Brexit and that little shitehouse Corbyn is behind her. So both if foul Labour MPs get her shite thro' the Commons then both BluLabour and ZaNu are heading to a colossal fall at the next GE.

Scummy Miller is right in that every page of May's turd is a trap on its own. May needs jail time on treason charges along with her treacherous little crew.

Sebastian Weetabix said...

I wouldn’t be so sure about Corbyn. He’s voted against the EEC/EC/EU at every opportunity since 1975 on good Bennite grounds. Privately he will want to “crash out” as the BBC like to put it, in their oh-so-unbiased way.

Bill Quango MP said...

Corbyn wants out of the EU.
Always has.

We are lucky to have him.

jim said...

Mmmm, I seem to recall it is the Brits who are the ones leaving the club. Normal people might expect leaving a customs union to involve putting up some sort of border. But NI politicians are not normal people and so we have had endless argy bargy to put a fig leaf over this inconvenient factor.

Fraser Nelson is trying to spin the Backstop as some sort of wicked plot to keep Britain in the EU forever. Not so, Britain is free to leave any time she chooses, but one side or the other must put up some sort of customs border - at their expense. Inconvenient but that is the cost of leaving the club. The backstop is merely an insurance policy to ensure Britain and her politicians live up to their side of the bargain. Not that they would ever welch.....

Any sensible plan to leave the EU would have involved a plan to unload NI. Snag is nobody wants it. The place is about the population of Hampshire and costs a full on government and more seats in Parliament than it ever deserves. A lot more trouble than it is worth. Before embarking on Brexit we should have done a bit of tidying up first - otherwise it all gets very messy.

In the end Mrs May will go to Brussels, they will give her a little packet of oofle dust and some smoke and mirrors and that is all she is likely to get. But that should be enough to satisfy her vegetables. I follow a variety of European newspapers and I detect little or no concern at all.

Dave_G said...

The EU made the NI issue and the UK Government (I'd say 'fell for it' but that would be too generous) took it up, both sides with the intention of using ot to manipualte the final outcome.

The issue of a border with NI is one ENTIRELY for the EU as it is them that have concerns for 'cheaper goods heading south' than we would have of 'expensive EU products headed north'.

The fact that cheap Chinese crap comes into the UK directly exposes the EU concerns for 'quality' as just so much red tape and bluster.

But for the EU to take the blame for setting up a border would show them up to be akin to the old East European dictators (which they are anyway) by fencing the Irish in in the same communist fashion.

The backstop is bollox - stop making an issue of it and see it for the deceit and misdirection it really is.

Mark said...

Our current account deficit with the EU is not far short of £100 billion, and the magnitude of this is, to a very large degree, a facet of being inside their customs union

If we are outside, all of that trade is essentially up for grabs. Keeping us inside their customs union is not some trivial side issue. The inevitable rebalancing of British trade that would occur would be at the expense of EU exporters. How could it not be? Couple this with the loss of our payments.

Jim, we are being told that a "hard" border - an actual physical barrier -is the only option and that its our fault and our intransigence.

Strangely all the options they prefer involve us staying inside their customs union in one form or another, can't imagine why they'd want that.

What the EU wants is total surrender. but they had their chance with the referendum. You can argue who actually blew it and I'm getting the popcorn in for when they start turning on each other .

How do we "dump" Ulster in the real world BTW? Just askin.

Anonymous said...

Raedwald, your blog is a disgrace.

You should be ashamed.


Fuck off..

Span Ows said...

Anon 14:56 is really showing his true face.

the WA is still a shit-show and May should get no kudos at all. There is nothing in it that is favourable, just delays and hooks to keep us as connected as possible. This has always been the aim, because they add a few drops of water to the acid bucket to alleviate the burn doesn't make it any easier to swallow.

Everyone I know expected a short-term kick which we would have quickly pulled out of; so far things have only got better except for the GBP correction which has helped many more than it has hindered.

jack ketch said...

You should be ashamed. -Anon

No not really, Raed may have differing opinions than you or I but he doesn't spout any view that might be regarded as requiring his shame for holding it. No neo-nazi scheiss, no knicker creaming for Tommy Robinson, no truck with violent protest on any side. And if he does go OTT (for example the 'Sweden' post recently) he always recants.

visc said...

We are where we are not through courage, but cowardice and treachery. The United Kingdom Parliament did not stand firm it just couldn't agree. The vile PoS that is DWA remains, backstop is little more than a sideshow. One which i grant the narcissistic Irish politicos are playing along with.

George Mainwaring said...

With the move of its certification facilities out of Derby, Rolls Royce is officially a German company. Well done chaps!

K said...

@George Mainwaring Are they an American company because their US certification facilities were already in the US? Will they be a UK company again when their UK certification is done in the UK?

Domo said...

The EU is free to deploy tanks to the border
The Uk is free to deploy tanks to the border

The UK is not going to
It's up to the EU if Southern Ireland must

Anonymous said...

The EU institutions cannot borrow, so they have no debt.

The UK contribution to the EU budget is no more than one eighth of it. That budget is only about one percent of EU GDP too. So the UK money is about one-eighth-of-one-percent of the EU GDP of some seventeen trillion US dollars, or of about fourteen trillion if you omit the UK. The EU twenty-seven will have no serious problem in re-budgeting. The problems will be in the UK. Its commerce with the EU more-or-less equals that with all the hundreds of countries in the rest of the world combined. Yes, including the US. Nearly all of that happens under EU trade agreements at present too, not under UK national ones. You just do not understand, do you?

Mark said...

OK Anon.

If our contributions are trivial, why do they want them? Why are they making petulant threats of court action to get them?

So we will be effectively isolated from the WHOLE world and will not be able to buy or sell anything at all from anybody else anywhere?

Is this what you're saying?

Anonymous said...

No one said that they were trivial.

However, their absence would not be fatal, far from it.

You do understand the difference between relatives and absolutes?

Mark said...

Anon, it's not about relatives and absolutes as OF COURSE you perfectly well know.

Ten billion or whatever might not be much in terms of the German economy but if German taxpayers are suddenly given this bill to cover British contributions I don't think they will be too keen. This is what it means in the real world. Essentially Germany getting a bill or the others doing without.

In a union of peoples and countries willingly and enthusiastically working towards the goal of a single state and identity which they fully understand, have democratically accepted, perhaps this wouldn't be an issue.

But this is not a description of the European unicorn is it?

George Mainwaring said...

Replying to @K said

Depends on whether they return to the UK

Timothy Farthing MA (Oxon) said...

In addition to stockpiling and preparing for martial law, here's some information on a dry-run at leaving the EU

K said...

@George Mainwaring

Can you please explain why getting EU certification inside the EU makes them an EU company but getting US certification inside the US doesn't make them a US company?

Anonymous said...

Just the usual conspiracy-victimhood hyperventilation, Mark, that's what.

Rick Hamilton said...

@ George Mainwaring
Rolls-Royce is a British aero-engine manufacturer. It merely licenses its trade mark to BMW to stick on their cars made in the UK with largely German content.

George Mainwaring said...

Replying to @K said ... and Rick Hamilton
Start here and google for subsequent updates if you can be bothered

Hermione said...

Fear in Brussels or toilets flushing in Conservative clubs?

K said...

@George Mainwaring You seem to be misunderstanding my question.

That link and other articles merely state that Rolls Royce is moving their EASA certification process to Germany and other articles even state that no jobs are being transferred. It's merely paperwork as a non-EASA member wouldn't be allowed to certify parts for use under EASA.

The same situation already exists in every other region that requires certification. So why do you believe that this is a special case that suddenly makes RR a German company when getting FAA certification doesn't make RR a US company?

For your point to hold water you'd have to say it's because RR already has factories etc in Germany and that moving the paperwork is the tipping point. But in that argument the important factor is the factories and they existed pre-Brexit so you wouldn't get the satisfaction of a low-effort "gotcha".

Anonymous said...

Replying to K said...

I posted info about this (source Reuters) but the moderator seems to have suppressed it. Touched a raw nerve, perhaps? Let's see if this gets censored.